Week 11 Top 25

Posted: January 15, 2018 in NFL

Villanova holds on to the top spot and are closely followed by Purdue and three ACC power teams.

Rank Team Conf POWER Record Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Villanova BE 73.5% 16 – 1 25 – 6 12 – 6 1 0
2 Purdue B10 72.5% 17 – 2 24 – 7 13 – 5 3 1
3 Duke ACC 72.1% 15 – 2 23 – 8 11 – 7 2 -1
4 Virginia ACC 71.5% 16 – 1 23 – 7 12 – 6 5 1
5 North Carolina ACC 71.2% 14 – 4 22 – 9 11 – 7 7 2
6 Tennessee SEC 70.4% 12 – 4 20 – 10 11 – 7 8 2
7 Texas Tech B12 70.1% 15 – 2 23 – 8 11 – 7 9 2
8 Kansas B12 69.7% 14 – 3 22 – 9 11 – 7 4 -4
9 Michigan St. B10 69.4% 16 – 3 23 – 8 11 – 7 6 -3
10 Oklahoma B12 69.4% 14 – 2 22 – 8 11 – 7 13 3
11 Auburn SEC 68.9% 16 – 1 24 – 7 12 – 6 18 7
12 Xavier BE 68.4% 16 – 3 23 – 8 11 – 7 12 0
13 Gonzaga WCC 68.3% 16 – 3 24 – 7 14 – 4 16 3
14 Nevada MWC 68.2% 16 – 3 24 – 8 13 – 5 17 3
15 TCU B12 68.2% 13 – 4 21 – 10 8 – 10 15 0
16 Rhode Island A10 67.5% 13 – 3 21 – 8 13 – 5 22 6
17 Kentucky SEC 67.5% 14 – 3 22 – 9 11 – 7 19 2
18 Arizona P12 67.3% 14 – 4 22 – 9 12 – 6 20 2
19 Arizona St. P12 67.3% 14 – 3 22 – 8 10 – 8 10 -9
20 Seton Hall BE 67.3% 15 – 3 22 – 9 11 – 7 11 -9
21 West Virginia B12 66.9% 15 – 2 23 – 8 11 – 7 25 4
22 Wichita St. Amer 66.9% 15 – 2 23 – 7 13 – 5 21 -1
23 Arkansas SEC 66.7% 12 – 5 20 – 11 9 – 9 14 -9
24 Florida St. ACC 66.6% 13 – 4 20 – 10 9 – 9 24 0
25 Creighton BE 66.6% 14 – 4 20 – 10 10 – 8 23 -2
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Week 10 Mid Major 15

Posted: January 10, 2018 in NCAA

Gonzaga overtakes Nevada for the number one spot as Nevada falls to two. Rhode Island and Saint Mary’s held onto three and four, respectively. Western Kentucky joins the top five.

Rank Team Conf POWER Record Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 68.0% 14 – 3 23 – 8 13 – 5 2 1
2 Nevada MWC 67.7% 15 – 3 24 – 8 13 – 5 1 -1
3 Rhode Island A10 66.5% 12 – 3 21 – 8 13 – 5 3 0
4 Saint Mary’s WCC 63.9% 15 – 2 24 – 7 13 – 5 4 0
5 Western Kentucky CUSA 63.4% 10 – 5 19 – 11 12 – 6 7 2
6 Boise St. MWC 62.3% 13 – 3 21 – 8 12 – 6 10 4
7 San Diego St. MWC 62.2% 10 – 4 18 – 10 11 – 7 9 2
8 Middle Tennessee CUSA 62.0% 10 – 4 19 – 10 12 – 6 5 -3
9 St. Bonaventure A10 61.0% 11 – 4 20 – 10 10 – 8 6 -3
10 Buffalo MAC 60.5% 10 – 5 20 – 10 13 – 5 NR
11 Northern Kentucky Horz 60.3% 9 – 5 18 – 10 13 – 5 11 0
12 Vermont AE 59.7% 10 – 5 20 – 10 11 – 5 12 0
13 UNLV MWC 59.5% 12 – 4 20 – 11 9 – 9 8 -4
14 BYU WCC 59.0% 13 – 4 21 – 10 10 – 8 NR
15 New Mexico St. WAC 58.8% 11 – 3 19 – 8 9 – 5 15

Dropped Out: South Dakota (13), Northern Iowa (14)

Week 10 NCAA Top 25

Posted: January 8, 2018 in NCAA

Villanova takes the top spot from Duke. Purdue, Kansas and Virginia round out the top five.

Rank Team Conf POWER Record Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Villanova BE 72.7% 14 – 1 24 – 7 11 – 7 2 1
2 Duke ACC 72.2% 13 – 2 23 – 8 10 – 8 1 -1
3 Purdue B10 71.7% 15 – 2 23 – 8 12 – 6 5 2
4 Kansas B12 71.4% 12 – 3 22 – 9 11 – 7 6 2
5 Virginia ACC 71.3% 14 – 1 23 – 7 12 – 6 11 6
6 Michigan St. B10 71.0% 15 – 2 23 – 8 11 – 7 4 -2
7 North Carolina ACC 71.0% 12 – 4 21 – 10 10 – 8 9 2
8 Tennessee SEC 70.5% 10 – 4 19 – 11 10 – 8 7 -1
9 Texas Tech B12 70.4% 14 – 1 23 – 8 11 – 7 14 5
10 Arizona St. P12 69.3% 13 – 2 23 – 7 11 – 7 3 -7
11 Seton Hall BE 68.9% 14 – 2 22 – 9 11 – 7 15 4
12 Xavier BE 68.4% 15 – 2 23 – 8 11 – 7 8 -4
13 Oklahoma B12 68.4% 12 – 2 21 – 9 10 – 8 17 4
14 Arkansas SEC 68.3% 11 – 4 20 – 11 10 – 8 13 -1
15 TCU B12 68.1% 13 – 2 21 – 10 9 – 9 20 5
16 Gonzaga WCC 67.8% 14 – 3 23 – 8 13 – 5 21 5
17 Nevada MWC 67.8% 15 – 3 24 – 8 13 – 5 16 -1
18 Auburn SEC 67.6% 14 – 1 23 – 8 11 – 7 30 12
19 Kentucky SEC 67.6% 12 – 3 21 – 10 10 – 8 19 0
20 Arizona P12 67.6% 12 – 4 21 – 10 11 – 7 10 -10
21 Wichita St. Amer 67.5% 13 – 2 22 – 8 12 – 6 24 3
22 Rhode Island A10 67.5% 11 – 3 21 – 8 13 – 5 18 -4
23 Creighton BE 67.5% 13 – 3 21 – 9 11 – 7 23 0
24 Florida St. ACC 66.7% 12 – 3 20 – 10 9 – 9 22 -2
25 West Virginia B12 66.5% 14 – 1 22 – 9 11 – 7 29 4

The Patriots are still the favorites to win the Super Bowl with a 26.1% chance.

Week 9 Mid Major 15

Posted: January 3, 2018 in NCAA

The first Mid Major 15 of the year has Nevada on top after a strong start to the season. Mid Major powerhouse’s Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are included in the top five as well.

Rank Team Conf POWER Record Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record
1 Nevada MWC 68.3% 13 – 3 23 – 9 12 – 6
2 Gonzaga WCC 67.6% 12 – 3 22 – 9 12 – 6
3 Rhode Island A10 67.5% 9 – 3 20 – 9 12 – 6
4 Saint Mary’s WCC 64.0% 13 – 2 23 – 8 12 – 6
5 Middle Tennessee CUSA 63.9% 8 – 4 19 – 10 12 – 6
6 St. Bonaventure A10 63.5% 11 – 2 21 – 9 11 – 7
7 Western Kentucky CUSA 62.6% 9 – 5 19 – 11 12 – 6
8 UNLV MWC 62.4% 11 – 3 21 – 10 10 – 8
9 San Diego St. MWC 61.8% 9 – 4 18 – 10 11 – 7
10 Boise St. MWC 61.7% 11 – 2 20 – 9 11 – 7
11 Northern Kentucky Horz 61.6% 7 – 5 18 – 10 13 – 5
12 Vermont AE 60.2% 8 – 5 19 – 11 11 – 5
13 South Dakota Sum 60.1% 10 – 4 18 – 9 9 – 5
14 Northern Iowa MVC 59.5% 6 – 5 16 – 12 10 – 8
15 New Mexico St. WAC 59.2% 10 – 3 19 – 8 9 – 5

Week 9 NCAA Top 25

Posted: January 2, 2018 in NCAA

Due to the busy holiday season I have not been making the regular postings – but that now that the holiday’s have concluded you should expect weekly top 25’s on Monday’s and Mid Major 15’s on Wednesday’s. Below is the top 25 entering this week (does not include Monday/Tuesday games).

Duke takes the top spot from Villanova, who fell to second. The top 10 is full of your typical college basketball blue bloods.

Rank Team Conf POWER Record Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Duke ACC 73.0% 13 – 1 23 – 8 11 – 7 4 3
2 Villanova BE 72.9% 13 – 1 24 – 7 11 – 7 1 -1
3 Arizona St. P12 71.6% 12 – 1 23 – 7 11 – 7 5 2
4 Michigan St. B10 71.6% 14 – 1 24 – 7 12 – 6 2 -2
5 Purdue B10 71.5% 13 – 2 23 – 8 12 – 6 7 2
6 Kansas B12 71.3% 11 – 2 22 – 9 11 – 7 12 6
7 Tennessee SEC 70.3% 9 – 3 20 – 10 10 – 8 8 1
8 Xavier BE 69.7% 14 – 1 23 – 8 11 – 7 10 2
9 North Carolina ACC 69.5% 12 – 2 21 – 10 10 – 8 6 -3
10 Arizona P12 69.4% 11 – 3 22 – 9 12 – 6 11 1
11 Virginia ACC 69.3% 12 – 1 22 – 8 11 – 7 3 -8
12 Texas A&M SEC 68.9% 11 – 2 21 – 10 10 – 8 9 -3
13 Arkansas SEC 68.7% 11 – 2 21 – 10 11 – 7 13 0
14 Texas Tech B12 68.4% 12 – 1 22 – 9 10 – 8 23 9
15 Seton Hall BE 68.3% 13 – 2 22 – 9 11 – 7 18 3
16 Nevada MWC 68.1% 13 – 3 23 – 9 12 – 6 17 1
17 Oklahoma B12 67.9% 11 – 1 21 – 9 10 – 8 16 -1
18 Rhode Island A10 67.4% 9 – 3 20 – 9 12 – 6 22 4
19 Kentucky SEC 67.3% 11 – 2 20 – 11 10 – 8 26 7
20 TCU B12 67.3% 12 – 1 21 – 10 9 – 9 14 -6
21 Gonzaga WCC 67.3% 12 – 3 22 – 9 12 – 6 21 0
22 Florida St. ACC 66.9% 11 – 2 20 – 10 9 – 9 19 -3
23 Creighton BE 66.8% 11 – 3 20 – 10 10 – 8 34 11
24 Wichita St. Amer 66.7% 11 – 2 21 – 9 11 – 7 15 -9
25 Maryland B10 66.5% 11 – 3 20 – 10 10 – 8 35 10

2017 NFL Playoff Odds – Wild Card

Posted: January 2, 2018 in NFL

Attached below are the odds for the playoffs. The Patriots are the favorites with approximately 4-1 odds. Vikings are 5-1 and Eagles are following closely at odds of around 28-5. This will be updated weekly.

Final NFL Power Rankings

Posted: January 2, 2018 in NFL

The Vikings finish the season atop the power rankings. The Patriots follow very closely behind. The Ravens hold the honor of being the top team too miss the playoffs. Meanwhile the worst team to make the playoffs is the Bills, ranked 20.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Prev Rank Dif
1 Minnesota Vikings 70.9% 13.0                  2 1
2 New England Patriots 70.5% 13.0                  4 2
3 Philadelphia Eagles 68.4% 13.0                  3 0
4 New Orleans Saints 68.2% 11.0                  1 -3
5 Los Angeles Rams 65.1% 11.0                  5 0
6 Jacksonville Jaguars 62.3% 10.0                  6 0
7 Carolina Panthers 59.9% 11.0                  7 0
8 Atlanta Falcons 59.6% 10.0                10 2
9 Pittsburgh Steelers 59.6% 13.0                  8 -1
10 Baltimore Ravens 58.7% 9.0                  9 -1
11 Kansas City Chiefs 56.7% 10.0                11 0
12 Los Angeles Chargers 56.2% 9.0                13 1
13 Detroit Lions 55.6% 9.0                14 1
14 Dallas Cowboys 54.3% 9.0                15 1
15 Seattle Seahawks 53.7% 9.0                12 -3
16 Washington Redskins 46.7% 7.0                16 0
17 Chicago Bears 45.6% 5.0                17 0
18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44.5% 5.0                21 3
19 Tennessee Titans 43.5% 9.0                23 4
20 Buffalo Bills 43.1% 9.0                19 -1
21 Arizona Cardinals 42.3% 8.0                25 4
22 Green Bay Packers 42.1% 7.0                18 -4
23 Cincinnati Bengals 41.6% 7.0                26 3
24 San Francisco 49ers 41.0% 6.0                28 4
25 Oakland Raiders 40.5% 6.0                20 -5
26 Miami Dolphins 40.4% 6.0                22 -4
27 New York Jets 39.9% 5.0                24 -3
28 Houston Texans 37.5% 4.0                27 -1
29 New York Giants 34.8% 3.0                29 0
30 Denver Broncos 32.0% 5.0                30 0
31 Indianapolis Colts 29.3% 4.0                31 0
32 Cleveland Browns 26.3% 0.0                32 0

Week 17 NFL Preview

Posted: December 31, 2017 in NFL

Projections

 

Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Sun 12:00 Detroit Lions 63.6% Green Bay Packers 36.4%
Sun 12:00 Indianapolis Colts 42.0% Houston Texans 58.0%
Sun 12:00 Minnesota Vikings 78.7% Chicago Bears 21.3%
Sun 12:00 New England Patriots 80.1% New York Jets 19.9%
Sun 12:00 New York Giants 37.9% Washington Redskins 62.1%
Sun 12:00 Philadelphia Eagles 72.9% Dallas Cowboys 27.1%
Sun 12:00 Pittsburgh Steelers 86.6% Cleveland Browns 13.4%
Sun 3:25 Atlanta Falcons 50.1% Carolina Panthers 49.9%
Sun 3:25 Baltimore Ravens 74.4% Cincinnati Bengals 25.6%
Sun 3:25 Denver Broncos 28.2% Kansas City Chiefs 71.8%
Sun 3:25 Los Angeles Chargers 66.6% Oakland Raiders 33.4%
Sun 3:25 Los Angeles Rams 81.9% San Francisco 49ers 18.1%
Sun 3:25 Miami Dolphins 53.7% Buffalo Bills 46.3%
Sun 3:25 Seattle Seahawks 69.3% Arizona Cardinals 30.7%
Sun 3:25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25.3% New Orleans Saints 74.7%
Sun 3:25 Tennessee Titans 32.6% Jacksonville Jaguars 67.4%

Playoff Odds

New England Patriots

New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs (82.8%):

  1. New England win (80.1%) OR
  2. Pittsburgh loss (13.4%) OR
  3. New England tie and Pittsburgh tie (<0.1%)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs (17.2%):

  1. Pittsburgh win + New England loss/tie (17.2%) OR
  2. Pittsburgh tie + New England loss (<0.1%)

Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore clinches a playoff berth (90.9%):

  1. Baltimore win/tie (74.4%) OR
  2. Buffalo loss/tie (53.7%) OR
  3. Tennessee loss/tie (67.4%)

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee clinches a playoff berth (42.3%):

  1. Tennessee win (32.6%) OR
  2. Tennessee tie + Buffalo loss/tie + LA Chargers loss/tie (0.1%) OR
  3. Buffalo loss + LA Chargers loss (17.9%)

Los Angeles Chargers

L.A. Chargers clinch a playoff berth (46.9%):

  1. LA Chargers win + Tennessee loss/tie + Buffalo loss/tie (24.1%) OR
  2. LA Chargers win + Tennessee loss/tie + Baltimore win/tie (33.4%) OR
  3. LA Chargers tie + Tennessee loss + Buffalo loss/tie (0.2%)

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo clinches a playoff berth (20.0%):

  1. Buffalo win + Baltimore loss (11.8%) OR
  2. Buffalo win + LA Chargers loss/tie + Tennessee loss/tie (10.4%) OR
  3. Buffalo tie + LA Chargers loss + Tennessee loss (0.1%)

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota clinches a first-round bye (99.5%):

  1. Minnesota win/tie (78.7%) OR
  2. Carolina loss/tie  (50.1%) OR
  3. New Orleans win (74.7%) OR
  4. LA Rams win (81.9%)

New Orleans Saints

New Orleans clinches NFC South (87.4%):

  1. New Orleans win (74.7%) OR
  2. Carolina loss (50.1%) OR
  3. New Orleans tie + Carolina tie (<0.1%)

Carolina Panthers

Carolina clinches NFC South (12.6%):

  1. Carolina win + New Orleans loss/tie (12.6%) OR
  2. Carolina tie + New Orleans loss (0.1%)

Carolina clinches a first-round bye (0.5%):

  1. Carolina win + New Orleans loss/tie + Minnesota loss + LA Rams loss/tie (0.5%)

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta clinches a playoff berth (70.9%):

  1. Atlanta win (50.1%) OR
  2. Seattle loss (30.7%) OR
  3. Atlanta tie + Seattle tie (<0.1%)

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle clinches a playoff berth (29.1%):

  1. Seattle win + Atlanta loss/tie (34.6%) OR
  2. Seattle tie + Atlanta loss (0.2%)

 

Accuracy

Overall W L T %
81+% 47 9 0 83.9%
61-80% 185 94 1 66.3%
51-60% 92 77 1 54.4%
          324           180               2 64.2%
Expected Right       334.8 3.2%

 

2017 W L T %
81+% 16 3 0 84.2%
61-80% 90 37 0 70.9%
51-60% 50 43 0 53.8%
           156             83              – 65.3%
Expected Right      155.27 -0.5%

Week 17 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: December 26, 2017 in NFL

The Eagles fell two spots off the top line and are now ranked third. The Saints are the new number one followed closely by the Vikings. With one week remaining in the NFL season I think it is fair to say that this year is fairly wide open as I can see any of the teams in the top eight winning the Super Bowl.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Make SB Win SB Prev Rank Dif
1 New Orleans Saints 72.1% 11.7 13.1% 6.7%                  2 1
2 Minnesota Vikings 71.2% 12.8 25.8% 15.8%                  3 1
3 Philadelphia Eagles 70.6% 13.7 30.9% 26.3%                  1 -2
4 New England Patriots 69.1% 12.8 40.6% 16.0%                  5 1
5 Los Angeles Rams 69.1% 11.8 14.0% 7.2%                  4 -1
6 Jacksonville Jaguars 63.4% 10.7 8.1% 2.2%                  6 0
7 Carolina Panthers 63.1% 11.5 11.0% 5.4%                  7 0
8 Pittsburgh Steelers 62.4% 12.9 41.8% 16.6%                  9 1
9 Baltimore Ravens 60.8% 9.8 3.1% <1%                  8 -1
10 Atlanta Falcons 58.4% 9.5 1.8% <1%                10 0
11 Kansas City Chiefs 57.9% 9.7 3.1% <1%                11 0
12 Seattle Seahawks 55.1% 9.7 2.0% <1%                14 2
13 Los Angeles Chargers 54.3% 8.7 1.5% <1%                15 2
14 Detroit Lions 53.1% 8.7 <1% <1%                12 -2
15 Dallas Cowboys 52.1% 8.3 <1% <1%                13 -2
16 Washington Redskins 49.4% 7.6 <1% <1%                16 0
17 Chicago Bears 45.0% 5.2 <1% <1%                20 3
18 Green Bay Packers 44.2% 7.3 <1% <1%                17 -1
19 Buffalo Bills 42.4% 8.4 <1% <1%                18 -1
20 Oakland Raiders 42.1% 6.3 <1% <1%                23 3
21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41.7% 4.3 <1% <1%                24 3
22 Miami Dolphins 41.1% 6.6 <1% <1%                19 -3
23 Tennessee Titans 40.7% 8.3 <1% <1%                25 2
24 New York Jets 40.4% 5.2 <1% <1%                21 -3
25 Arizona Cardinals 39.9% 7.3 <1% <1%                27 2
26 Cincinnati Bengals 39.4% 6.2 <1% <1%                26 0
27 Houston Texans 39.0% 4.6 <1% <1%                22 -5
28 San Francisco 49ers 37.6% 5.2 <1% <1%                29 1
29 New York Giants 32.7% 2.4 <1% <1%                28 -1
30 Denver Broncos 30.7% 5.3 <1% <1%                30 0
31 Indianapolis Colts 27.4% 3.4 <1% <1%                31 0
32 Cleveland Browns 23.9% 0.1 <1% <1%                32 0