2016 NFC East Outlook

Posted: September 2, 2016 in NFL

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys finished last season at the bottom of the NFC East with a 4-12 record; mostly due to the loss of Tony Romo and other key players during the season. Jason Garrett will return for his sixth full season as head coach despite only making the playoffs once in his first six years. Overall, Garrett has a 45-43 record in the regular season. Scott Linehan will enter his third season with the Cowboys and second as offensive coordinator. The Cowboys had the second worst offense in the NFL last season despite having one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. Rod Marinelli will be spending his fourth season with the Cowboys and third as defensive coordinator. The Cowboys defense ranked 19th overall despite having the fourth worst rushing defense in the NFL.

Offseason Summary

Departures: DE Greg Hardy, DE Jeremy Mincey, G Mackenzy Bernadeau, DT Nick Hayden

Arrivals: RB Alfred Morris, DT/DE Cedric Thornton, DE Benson Mayowa

Top Draft Picks: RB Ezekiel Elliott (Ohio State, #4 overall), LB Jaylon Smith (Notre Dame, #34), DT Maliek Collins (Nebraska, #67)

Preseason Awards

MVP: Dez Bryant

Offensive Player of the Year: Tyron Smith

Defensive Player of the Year: Sean Lee

Other Notable players: Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Demarcus Lawrence, Barry Church, Orlando Scandrick

Strongest position group: Offensive line

Weakest position group: Quarterback

Preseason Projection

The Cowboys are projected for 8.9 wins with a 90% confidence interval of 5.9 to 13.4 wins. They begin the season with an approximate 46.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 1.7% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The graph below shows the Cowboys probability of winning X number of games.

Cowboys

 

New York Giants

The Giants finished the season 6-10 and missed the playoffs for a fourth straight season. Tom Coughlin is now out at coach after 12 seasons and Ben McAdoo will take over as head coach. McAdoo was the Giants offensive coordinator for the last two seasons and before that spent 8 seasons with the Packers. Mike Sullivan will take over McAdoo’s previous position as offensive coordinator. Sullivan has spent 10 seasons with the Giants as a wide receivers and quarterbacks coach. He spent two seasons as the offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers in 2012 and 2013. The Giants had the 19th ranked offense last season. Steve Spagnuolo will return for his second season as defensive coordinator for the Giants despite leading fielding the third worst defense last season.

Offseason Summary

Departures: DE Robert Ayers, CB Prince Amukamara, WR Rueben Randle, S Brandon Meriweather, DL Cullen Jenkins

Arrivals: DE Olivier Vernon, DT Damon Harrison, CB Janoris Jenkins, LB Keenan Robinson, LB Kelvin Sheppard

Top Draft Picks: CB Eli Apple (Ohio State, #10 overall), WR Sterling Shepard (Oklahoma, #40), S Darian Thompson (Boise State, #71)

Preseason Awards

MVP: Olivier Vernon

Offensive Player of the Year: Odell Beckham Jr

Defensive Player of the Year: Jason Pierre-Paul

Other Notable players: Shane Vereen, Justin Pugh, Weston Richburg, Eli Manning, Dominique-Rodgers Cromartie, Damon Harrison, Jason Pierre-Paul

Strongest position group: Front seven

Weakest position group: Quarterback

Preseason Projection

The Giants are projected for 8.0 wins with a 90% confidence interval of 4.2 to 11.7 wins. The Giants enter the season with an approximate 32.0% chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The graph below shows the Giants probability of winning X number of games. Giants win my vote for best probability distribution.

Giants

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles finished the season 7-9 and missed the playoffs for a second straight season. The Chip Kelly experiment (at least in Philidelphia) ended after 15 games last season and in the offseason hired Chiefs Offensive Coordinator Doug Pederson. Pederson did spend four seasons with the Eagles as a quarterbacks and offensive quality control from 2009 to 2013. The Eagles hired former Chargers Offensive Coordinator Frank Reich. The Chargers ranked in the top 15 in both years with Reich as coordinator. Philadelphia had the 26th ranked offense last season and ranked near the bottom of the league in passing offense. Jim Schwartz, the former head coach of the Detroit Lions, will be spending his first year in Philly as defensive coordinator. The Eagles ranked in the middle of the pack defensively but did have a bottom-5 rush defense.

Offseason Summary

Departures: S Walter Thurmond, Cedric Thornton, QB Mark Sanchez, LB Kiko Alonso, CB Byron Maxwell, RB DeMarco Murray, LB DeMeco Ryans, WR Riley Cooper

Arrivals: S Rodney McCleod, G Brandon Brooks, CB Leodis McKelvin, C Stefen Wisniewski, WR Rueben Randle, WR Dorial Green-Beckham, QB Chase Daniel, WR Chris Givens

Top Draft Picks: QB Carson Wentz (North Dakota State, #2 overall), OL Isaac Seumalo (Oregon State, #79), RB Wendell Smallwood (West Virginia, #153)

Preseason Awards

MVP: Sam Bradford

Non-QB MVP: Fletcher Cox

Offensive Player of the Year: Jason Peters

Defensive Player of the Year: Brandon Graham

Other Notable players: Zach Ertz, Jason Kelce, Rodney McLeod, Malcolm Jenkins

Strongest position group: Front seven

Weakest position group: Offensive skill players

Preseason Projection

The Eagles are projected for 6.4 wins with a 90% confidence interval of 2.7 to 10.2 wins. The Eagles enter the season with an 11.3% chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The graph below shows the Eagles probability of winning X number of games.

Washington Redskins

Washington was one of the few surprises from last season, going 9-7 and winning the NFC East. It was just Jay Gruden’s second season with the team and the Redskins saw a 5-win improvement from his first season. Sean McVay has spent seven seasons with the Redskins and third season as offensive coordinator. The Redskins offense ranked 12th overall last season and had the sixth best passing offense. However, they had the worst rushing offense in the NFL. Joe Barry will enter his second season as defensive coordinator for Washington and the Redskins defense ranked 21st in his first season.

Offseason Summary

Departures: NT Terrance Knighton, RB Alfred Morris, S Dashon Goldson, QB Robert Griffin III, DE Jason Hatcher

Arrivals: CB Josh Norman, S David Bruton, DE Kendall Reyes

Top Draft Picks: WR Josh Doctson (TCU, #22 overall), LB/S Su’a Cravens (USC, #53 overall), CB Kendall Fuller (Virginia Tech, #84)

Preseason Awards

MVP: Kirk Cousins

Non-QB MVP: Trent Williams

Offensive Player of the Year: DeSean Jackson

Defensive Player of the Year: Josh Norman

Other Notable players: Jordan Reed, Morgan Moses, Bashaud Breeland, Ryan Kerrigan, Chris Baker

Strongest position group: Offensive line

Weakest position group: Front seven

Preseason Projection

The Redskins are projected for 4.9 wins with a 90% confidence interval of 1.4 to 8.3 wins. The Redskins enter the season with a 2.7% chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The graph below shows the Redskins probability of winning X number of games.

Projected NFC East Standings

  1. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
  2. New York Giants (8-8)
  3. Philadelphia Eagles (6-10)
  4. Washington Redskins (5-11)

 

Advertisements
Comments
  1. FtB says:

    You think the Cowboys are gonna win 10 games with Romo out for at least six weeks and with a rookie QB?

    • It is an interesting question for sure. The statistics seem to think so. Outside of the QB position Dallas is pretty strong at nearly every position, especially offensive line. The absence of an Romo, will obviously hurt and I, personally, am not sure if 10 wins will happen, but it certainly is not out of the question.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s