2016 Preseason Power Rankings

Posted: September 6, 2016 in NFL

Below is the 2016 Preseason Power Rankings. The power rankings will be updated weekly (with the exception of week 2) and can be found on the NFL tab for quick access. Rather than posting power rankings on week 2 I will be posting a ‘five most surprising results’ since 1 week of data isn’t enough to produce new rankings. I will be phasing out the preseason projections over the first five games of the season so after a team’s fifth game is played their power score is solely based on how a team has performed this year.

POWER- can be interpreted as win probability against average opponent on neutral field

Proj. Wins- self-explanatory

Make/Miss Playoffs/Super Bowl – Rough probability of a given team making/missing/winning the playoffs/Super Bowl.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Make Playoffs Miss Playoffs Make SB Win SB Conf
1 Green Bay Packers 79.8% 12.9 94.3% 5.7% 25.8% 17.3% NFC
2 Carolina Panthers 78.9% 12.7 93.5% 6.5% 24.2% 15.9% NFC
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 78.1% 12.1 93.0% 7.0% 27.1% 12.2% AFC
4 Arizona Cardinals 77.6% 12.1 90.6% 9.4% 20.1% 12.4% NFC
5 Cincinnati Bengals 75.3% 11.5 87.9% 12.1% 21.3% 9.1% AFC
6 New England Patriots 73.7% 11.3 85.8% 14.2% 19.6% 8.2% AFC
7 Seattle Seahawks 69.9% 10.6 75.0% 25.0% 10.5% 5.6% NFC
8 Minnesota Vikings 64.8% 9.8 62.9% 37.1% 6.9% 3.4% NFC
9 Baltimore Ravens 62.6% 9.4 57.5% 42.5% 7.3% 2.5% AFC
10 Buffalo Bills 59.8% 8.9 47.5% 52.5% 5.1% 1.7% AFC
11 Dallas Cowboys 59.4% 9.6 59.0% 41.0% 6.0% 2.9% NFC
12 Kansas City Chiefs 53.8% 8.9 48.2% 51.8% 5.2% 1.7% AFC
13 Oakland Raiders 53.0% 8.7 44.8% 55.2% 4.6% 1.5% AFC
14 Houston Texans 50.7% 8.3 36.4% 63.6% 3.2% 1.0% AFC
15 Chicago Bears 50.2% 8.3 35.7% 64.3% 2.4% 1.0% NFC
16 New York Giants 48.6% 7.9 29.2% 70.8% 1.7% <1% NFC
17 Indianapolis Colts 45.2% 7.6 25.6% 74.4% 1.9% <1% AFC
18 New York Jets 45.1% 6.7 13.6% 86.4% <1% <1% AFC
19 San Diego Chargers 43.4% 7.9 30.6% 69.4% 2.4% <1% AFC
20 Denver Broncos 43.3% 6.9 16.4% 83.6% <1% <1% AFC
21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43.1% 7.0 17.1% 82.9% <1% <1% NFC
22 New Orleans Saints 39.7% 6.5 11.5% 88.5% <1% <1% NFC
23 Atlanta Falcons 38.9% 6.0 7.8% 92.2% <1% <1% NFC
24 Detroit Lions 37.5% 6.2 9.0% 91.0% <1% <1% NFC
25 Philadelphia Eagles 36.9% 5.6 5.2% 94.8% <1% <1% NFC
26 Los Angeles Rams 36.9% 5.8 6.2% 93.8% <1% <1% NFC
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 34.8% 5.6 5.6% 94.4% <1% <1% AFC
28 Washington Redskins 33.5% 5.0 2.6% 97.4% <1% <1% NFC
29 Miami Dolphins 33.1% 5.1 3.0% 97.0% <1% <1% AFC
30 Tennessee Titans 28.6% 5.3 3.9% 96.1% <1% <1% AFC
31 San Francisco 49ers 22.8% 3.4 <1% >99% <1% <1% NFC
32 Cleveland Browns 19.9% 2.9 <1% >99% <1% <1% AFC
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Comments
  1. Mark Caruso says:

    How did you come up with the percentages? I’m interested in how you came up with the probability of making/missing the playoffs?

    • Hi Mark,

      A number of factors go in to determining overall team strength and after I determine team strength I simulate the regular season. I then use the probability distributions for each team and apply that too historical playoff data to determine how likely or unlikely a team is make the playoffs or win the super bowl. Hopefully that clears it up and is not too confusing. Simply put, I run the numbers.

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