Week 1 Projections

Posted: September 8, 2016 in NFL

The game of the week will be voted on every week and I will provide some additional commentary for the game of the week selected. I will also pick a lock and an upset pick, with some commentary as well. The table below shows the win probabilities/projections for each team this week. In later weeks I will provide some accuracy to these projections.

Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:30 Denver Broncos 20.0% Carolina Panthers 80.0%
Sun 12:00 Tennessee Titans 21.0% Minnesota Vikings 79.0%
Sun 12:00 Houston Texans 55.5% Chicago Bears 44.5%
Sun 12:00 Philadelphia Eagles 74.3% Cleveland Browns 25.7%
Sun 12:00 Baltimore Ravens 57.9% Buffalo Bills 42.1%
Sun 12:00 Kansas City Chiefs 65.0% San Diego Chargers 35.0%
Sun 12:00 New Orleans Saints 41.6% Oakland Raiders 58.4%
Sun 12:00 Atlanta Falcons 50.6% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 49.4%
Sun 12:00 New York Jets 24.7% Cincinnati Bengals 75.3%
Sun 12:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 14.1% Green Bay Packers 85.9%
Sun 3:05 Seattle Seahawks 85.2% Miami Dolphins 14.8%
Sun 3:25 Dallas Cowboys 65.4% New York Giants 34.6%
Sun 3:25 Indianapolis Colts 62.6% Detroit Lions 37.4%
Sun 7:30 Arizona Cardinals 60.3% New England Patriots 39.7%
Mon 6:10 Washington Redskins 14.7% Pittsburgh Steelers 85.3%
Mon 9:20 San Francisco 49ers 38.2% Los Angeles Rams 61.8%
Game of the Week

Broncos v. Panthers, Thursday Night @ 7:20 CST on NBC

The headline is huge, a Super Bowl rematch to kickoff the 2016 season. I cannot recall a season that started like this ever before. It is a common occurrence that the teams participating in the Super Bowl often experience a bit of roster turnover and these teams are not exempt. The Broncos will move on from the ‘Sheriff’ as Peyton Manning retired after winning his second Super Bowl. Trevor Siemian, a 2015 seventh round pick, will start at QB for the Broncos. Denver brought in two new offensive tackles, Russell Okung and  Donald Stephenson in hopes to sure up the offensive line. The Broncos elite defense lost Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan but should continue to be elite this year with the entire secondary returning and Super Bowl MVP Von Miller leading the rush after the quarterback. The Panthers return more than the Broncos but they did lose stud cornerback Josh Norman and will certainly miss him in a secondary that will see two rookies get significant playing time. The Panthers still return a top offense and NFL MVP Cam Newton, who gets Kelvin Benjamin back from injury. The Panthers also have Luke Kuechly and many other key players returning to one of the best front sevens from a year ago. This game figures to be similar to the Super Bowl, a defensive battle. However, the stats say the Panthers are huge favorites, winning 8 out of 10 times. It is no secret that the Panthers will be one of the best teams in the NFL this year meanwhile there are a ton of questions about how the Broncos, specifically their offense, will fare. It will be interesting to see how the game plays out. The Broncos can win this game if their defense can put together another all-time great performance and shut down Carolina’s offense and Cam Newton. That is the key battle in this game. Ultimately, I believe the Panthers win this game. Panthers 20 Broncos 13

Upset Pick – I’ll go with the Jets pulling off the upset against Cincinnati at Metlife Stadium. Both teams had strong years last season and this could end up being a very important game for the playoff picture. Ultimately, the Jets are home and the Bengals are without Eifert for the time being, making this an attractive upset pick. Jets 23 Bengals 21

Lock-  Seahawks over Dolphins. Not much to say about this one, Seattle will be one of the best teams in the NFL this season and the Dolphins, well they won’t be. Seahawks 31 Dolphins 10

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