Week 2 Preview

Posted: September 15, 2016 in NFL
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Buffalo Bills 68.8% New York Jets 31.2%
Sun 12:00 Carolina Panthers 93.9% San Francisco 49ers 6.1%
Sun 12:00 Cleveland Browns 15.2% Baltimore Ravens 84.8%
Sun 12:00 Detroit Lions 64.7% Tennessee Titans 35.3%
Sun 12:00 Houston Texans 51.9% Kansas City Chiefs 48.1%
Sun 12:00 New England Patriots 87.3% Miami Dolphins 12.7%
Sun 12:00 New York Giants 63.8% New Orleans Saints 36.2%
Sun 12:00 Pittsburgh Steelers 58.8% Cincinnati Bengals 41.2%
Sun 12:00 Washington Redskins 29.7% Dallas Cowboys 70.3%
Sun 3:05 Arizona Cardinals 84.7% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15.3%
Sun 3:05 Los Angeles Rams 23.7% Seattle Seahawks 76.3%
Sun 3:25 Denver Broncos 53.1% Indianapolis Colts 46.9%
Sun 3:25 Oakland Raiders 68.4% Atlanta Falcons 31.6%
Sun 3:25 San Diego Chargers 52.9% Jacksonville Jaguars 47.1%
Sun 7:30 Minnesota Vikings 36.5% Green Bay Packers 63.5%
Mon 7:30 Chicago Bears 67.7% Philadelphia Eagles 32.3%
Picks of the Week

The week 2 game of the week as voted on twitter and the pool from Tuesday is the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. These division rivals last played in the Wild Card round last year in a nasty 18-16 game. The Bengals held a late lead but mental mistakes cost them the game and their season as Pittsburgh moved on despite injuries to Big Ben and the absence of Le’Veon Bell. The Bengals played the entire game with A.J. McCarron at QB. Both teams got off to a great start to their season with the Bengals edging out the Jets in New York and the Steelers dismantling the Redskins on Monday night. A.J. Green had one of the best games of any wide receiver last week with 12 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown-most of which came on once-great CB Darrelle Revis. The Bengals offense as a whole performed well against a Jets defense that finished near the top of the NFL last season. The defense also performed strongly but showed lapses at times. The Redskins had no answers for Pittsburgh’s offense on Monday night as they got it done in the air early and on the ground late. The defense performed at a decent level, holding Washington to just sixteen points. However, the Redskins averaged 7 yards per play, which was fourth most in the NFL last week. I expect this contest to be like many AFC North contests involving teams not named Cleveland; a hard-fought, hard-hitting game with plenty of trash talk and cheap shots. Both teams bring in superb offenses and some adequate defenses and it should result in a very entertaining game from beginning to end. The numbers favor the Steelers slighty, with a 58.8% chance of winning the game, and I believe the home team wins as well. Steelers 26 Bengals 21

Lock of the week-Panthers over 49ers. A bold pick if you just look at last week’s results. But the Panthers are the real deal and I do not see them losing two games to start the season, especially with the second game coming against the 49ers, who may have one of the worst rosters in the NFL. I only say may because they did put on a beating against the Rams last week. Panthers 31 49ers 10

Upset pick of the week-Saints over Giants. The giants got off to a good start with a one-point victory last week in Dallas while the Saints lost by one after a gutsy two-point conversion call by Jack Del Rio. The Saints offense looked tremendous and while the defense certainly didn’t look good, I still like the Saints to pull off a notable upset more than any other team this week as their offensive match up problems cause trouble for a defense with new superstars still working on meshing together. Saints 30 Giants 26


Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are.

W L T %
80+% 3 1 0 75.0%
61-80% 4 3 0 57.1%
51-60% 3 2 0 60.0%
             10        6            – 62.5%
Expected Right 11.025

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