Week 3 NFL Preview

Posted: September 22, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 New England Patriots 71.9% Houston Texans 28.1%
Sun 12:00 Buffalo Bills 25.7% Arizona Cardinals 74.3%
Sun 12:00 Carolina Panthers 64.4% Minnesota Vikings 35.6%
Sun 12:00 Cincinnati Bengals 74.8% Denver Broncos 25.2%
Sun 12:00 Green Bay Packers 85.4% Detroit Lions 14.6%
Sun 12:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 14.0% Baltimore Ravens 86.0%
Sun 12:00 Miami Dolphins 75.9% Cleveland Browns 24.1%
Sun 12:00 New York Giants 84.6% Washington Redskins 15.4%
Sun 12:00 Tennessee Titans 36.1% Oakland Raiders 63.9%
Sun 3:05 Seattle Seahawks 86.3% San Francisco 49ers 13.7%
Sun 3:05 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56.5% Los Angeles Rams 43.5%
Sun 3:25 Indianapolis Colts 48.0% San Diego Chargers 52.0%
Sun 3:25 Kansas City Chiefs 64.6% New York Jets 35.4%
Sun 3:25 Philadelphia Eagles 23.2% Pittsburgh Steelers 76.8%
Sun 7:30 Dallas Cowboys 63.2% Chicago Bears 36.8%
Mon 7:30 New Orleans Saints 52.8% Atlanta Falcons 47.2%
Picks of the Week

The week 3 game of the week (1-1) as voted on the poll from Tuesday is the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers. This game probably lacked appeal two weeks ago but due to the outstanding play of Carson Wentz and the Eagles thus far the game is a lot more appealing. Both teams are off to fast starts with 2-0 records. The Steelers have had a much harder schedule though, beating the Redskins and Bengals, while the Eagles have beaten the Browns and Bears. While I expect the Eagles to put up a fight at home I don’t expect them to beat the Steelers. Steelers 31 Eagles 20

Lock of the week (2-0)- Dolphins over Browns. Neither of these teams are good, nor did I ever think I would pick the Dolphins to be a lock this season. However, an exception can be made for any team hosting the Browns this season. The Browns will be starting rookie Cody Kessler, it will be their third starting QB in three games to start off the season. The Browns will also be without rookie WR Corey Coleman as he broke his hand in practice this week. The only way I see the Browns winning this one is if Kessler puts together an amazing performance and guides them to a W. Dolphins 27 Browns 16

Upset pick of the week (0-2)- Texans over Patriots. This is an obvious upset pick as New England will likely be entering the game with Jacoby Brissett as starting QB facing a very good Texans defense. The Patriots are home and still have a great mastermind in Belichick at head coach, but their is only so much that can be done with a rookie QB that has four days to prepare for his first start of the season. Texans 20 Patriots 13

Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have drastically under performed, while teams with a 51-60% odds have overperformed.

W L T %
80+% 7 1 0 87.5%
61-80% 6 9 0 40.0%
51-60% 7 2 0 77.8%
             20      12            –
Expected Right        22.13
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