Week 4 NFL Preview

Posted: September 29, 2016 in NFL
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Cincinnati Bengals 65.9% Miami Dolphins 34.1%
Sun 8:30 Jacksonville Jaguars 46.2% Indianapolis Colts 53.8%
Sun 12:00 Atlanta Falcons 36.6% Carolina Panthers 63.4%
Sun 12:00 Baltimore Ravens 61.0% Oakland Raiders 39.0%
Sun 12:00 Chicago Bears 65.3% Detroit Lions 34.7%
Sun 12:00 Houston Texans 64.8% Tennessee Titans 35.2%
Sun 12:00 New England Patriots 77.4% Buffalo Bills 22.6%
Sun 12:00 New York Jets 34.1% Seattle Seahawks 65.9%
Sun 12:00 Washington Redskins 72.6% Cleveland Browns 27.4%
Sun 3:05 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36.1% Denver Broncos 63.9%
Sun 3:25 Arizona Cardinals 79.4% Los Angeles Rams 20.6%
Sun 3:25 San Diego Chargers 65.5% New Orleans Saints 34.5%
Sun 3:25 San Francisco 49ers 35.8% Dallas Cowboys 64.2%
Sun 7:30 Pittsburgh Steelers 60.1% Kansas City Chiefs 39.9%
Mon 7:30 New York Giants 24.2% Minnesota Vikings 75.8%
Picks of the Week

The week 4 game of the week (1-2) as voted on the poll from Wednesday is the Panthers  (1-2) @ Falcons (2-1). A very intriguing game in week four as the Panthers try and avoid a 1-3 start and fall two games behind the Falcons in the NFC South. It is still early in the season but no team, regardless of how good, wants to be 1-3 to at the quarter-pole. The Falcons offense has looked very good in the first few weeks and will challenge the Panthers defense. The struggling offense of the Panthers gets an easier test than the Vikings and should be able to put up a strong performance. I will go with the Panthers in a close one. Panthers 27 Falcons 24

Lock of the week (3-0)- Bengals over Dolphins. A rare Thursday night lock but the Bengals are playing at home on a short week against a bad team. While the Bengals haven’t necessarily looked great to start the season they haven’t looked as bad as the Dolphins–who struggled at home against the Browns last week. I would certainly be surprised if Bengals lost this one and started 1-3.

Upset of the week (0-3)- Lions over Bears. This is more about how bad the Bears have been and less about how “ehh” the Lions have been. The Bears have looked bad in all aspects of the game we love thus far and they have also been hurt a lot by injuries (no matter how small, Jay). The Bears are home, which may be the only reason they win this game.


Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have drastically under performed, while teams with a 51-60% odds have overperformed. If this inaccuracy continues I will likely look into developing a more complex, accurate simulator.

W L T %
80+% 10 2 0 83.3%
61-80% 11 13 0 45.8%
51-60% 7 5 0 58.3%
                28                 20                  –
Expected Right          43.46

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