Archive for October, 2016

Week 9 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: October 31, 2016 in NFL

It only took three weeks with Brady back for the Patriots to claim the #1 spot and that shouldn’t really surprise anyone as New England has been flat out dominate over the last three games. No can really question moves that the Patriots make but life-after-Collins is something to look out for. At #2 is a team that has won six straight games-the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have beaten some of the NFC elites and their comeback victory over the Eagles was impressive, showing they belong in the NFC Super Bowl contender conversation. The Eagles, moved up 2 spots to #3, despite losing to Dallas. Chiefs and Falcons round out the Top 5. The Chiefs, Saints, Texans and Panthers all moved up more than five spots in this week’s rankings. while the Vikings, Jets and Bills all dropped at least five spots.

Given recent ties.. The projected wins column includes a half win for ties, so the Seahawks projected for 9.1 wins is really 8.6-6.4-1 and so forth. It is easier to look at playoff picture with the half win factored in.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Make Playoffs Make SB Win SB Prev. Movement
1 New England Patriots 79.3% 13.7 >99% 45.6% 32.5%              2                         1
2 Dallas Cowboys 76.9% 12.9 >99% 44.7% 24.5%              4                         2
3 Philadelphia Eagles 69.9% 9.9 73.7% 9.0% 3.1%              5                         2
4 Kansas City Chiefs 69.2% 11.0 87.3% 16.1% 7.9%           12                         8
5 Atlanta Falcons 68.3% 10.5 85.5% 13.0% 4.8%              3                      (2)
6 Denver Broncos 66.2% 10.6 82.5% 12.5% 5.8%              9                         3
7 Green Bay Packers 64.1% 9.7 69.4% 7.8% 2.7%              7                        –
8 San Diego Chargers 60.6% 8.3 33.7% 1.6% <1%           10                         2
9 Minnesota Vikings 59.6% 10.5 84.6% 14.5% 5.7%              1                      (8)
10 Oakland Raiders 58.4% 10.2 75.9% 9.6% 4.2%           13                         3
11 Buffalo Bills 58.0% 9.2 55.5% 3.9% 1.4%              6                      (5)
12 Washington Redskins 57.3% 8.7 33.5% 2.0% <1%              8                      (4)
13 New Orleans Saints 54.0% 8.2 34.3% 2.1% <1%           20                         7
14 Arizona Cardinals 51.0% 7.5 11.9% <1% <1%           11                      (3)
15 Seattle Seahawks 50.9% 9.1 41.8% 3.1% <1%           16                         1
16 Pittsburgh Steelers 49.8% 9.2 54.3% 4.4% 1.7%           15                      (1)
17 New York Giants 48.0% 8.2 33.7% 2.2% <1%           14                      (3)
18 Cincinnati Bengals 47.1% 7.8 15.0% <1% <1%           17                      (1)
19 Houston Texans 46.4% 9.2 53.3% 4.1% 1.5%           25                         6
20 Miami Dolphins 44.3% 7.4 17.5% <1% <1%           18                      (2)
21 Detroit Lions 41.4% 7.2 14.4% <1% <1%           19                      (2)
22 Carolina Panthers 41.1% 5.2 1.5% <1% <1%           27                         5
23 Indianapolis Colts 40.4% 6.6 7.1% <1% <1%           21                      (2)
24 Tennessee Titans 39.7% 7.1 12.4% <1% <1%           26                         2
25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 39.0% 5.8 3.0% <1% <1%           22                      (3)
26 Los Angeles Rams 37.1% 6.6 8.5% <1% <1%           24                      (2)
27 Chicago Bears 35.7% 5.2 1.2% <1% <1%           29                         2
28 New York Jets 35.5% 6.1 4.1% <1% <1%           23                      (5)
29 Baltimore Ravens 28.6% 5.6 2.2% <1% <1%           28                      (1)
30 Cleveland Browns 20.4% 1.7 <1% <1% <1%           32                         2
31 Jacksonville Jaguars 20.1% 3.8 <1% <1% <1%           30                      (1)
32 San Francisco 49ers 19.5% 2.8 <1% <1% <1%           31                      (1)
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Week 9 College Football Playoff Preview

Posted: October 26, 2016 in NCAAF

There are 12 teams remaining in contention for the College Football Playoff.

True Elimination Games (0)

True elimination games are where the winner survives another week and the loser is eliminated from contention. I will provide the days and times for these games.

None this week

Elimination Games (5)

Elimination games are when one team in the game would be eliminated with a loss. That team will be denoted with an asterisk. The other team has either already been eliminated, or can lose the game without being eliminated.

 

#8 Louisville* @ Virginia

#9 Florida* @ Georgia

New Mexico State vs. #10 Texas A&M*

#3 Washington @ #11 Utah*

Northwestern @ #12 Ohio State*

Power Games (0)

These are games between undefeated power-five teams. The loser is not eliminated but is one step closer to being eliminated.

None this week

The maximum number of teams that could remain in contention for the college football playoff after this week is 12 teams. The minimum number of teams is 7.

Week 8 NFL Preview

Posted: October 26, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Tennessee Titans 66.6% Jacksonville Jaguars 33.4%
Sun 8:30 Cincinnati Bengals 33.4% Washington Redskins 66.6%
Sun 12:00 Buffalo Bills 42.9% New England Patriots 57.1%
Sun 12:00 Carolina Panthers 25.4% Arizona Cardinals 74.6%
Sun 12:00 Cleveland Browns 31.1% New York Jets 68.9%
Sun 12:00 Houston Texans 45.5% Detroit Lions 54.5%
Sun 12:00 Indianapolis Colts 38.9% Kansas City Chiefs 61.1%
Sun 12:00 New Orleans Saints 51.6% Seattle Seahawks 48.4%
Sun 12:00 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37.3% Oakland Raiders 62.7%
Sun 3:05 Denver Broncos 56.1% San Diego Chargers 43.9%
Sun 3:25 Atlanta Falcons 63.7% Green Bay Packers 36.3%
Sun 7:30 Dallas Cowboys 56.1% Philadelphia Eagles 43.9%
Mon 7:30 Chicago Bears 11.0% Minnesota Vikings 89.0%
Picks of the Week

The week 5 game of the week (3-3-1) as picked by me is the Cowboys hosting the Eagles in a divisional showdown on Sunday night. The 5-1 Cowboys have looked extremely solid behind young studs Dak Prescott & Ezekiel Elliott and an improved defense. The Eagles started strong and have fallen off but got a big win against Minnesota last week. I think Dallas is the better team and they are home in this one. Cowboys 24 Eagles 21

Lock of the week (6-1)- I don’t really like calling any of these games lock but if I had to pick it would be the Vikings over the Bears on Monday Night. Vikings 27 Bears 17

Upset of the week (1-6)- Bengals over Washington. Cincinnati is actually 3 point favorites but my upset is essentially where I disagree with my simulation. So I will take the Bengals in London.

Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed. The current 14.4 game spread is worrisome at 13.6% off, but should improve as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I will begin to monitor how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (Post Week 6 results – expected 10.26, actual 8, 15.1%). My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault.

W L T %
81+% 13 4 0 76.5%
61-80% 33 30 0 52.4%
51-60% 13 13 1 50.0%
                59                 47                   1 55.6%
Expected Right          73.41 13.6%

Week 8 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: October 24, 2016 in NFL

As mentioned last week, playoff and super bowl probabilities are if every team played exactly the same the rest of season and does not account for volatility in team performance so when examining the probabilities for playoffs understand that everything is slightly closer to 50% and for the Super Bowl it is more evenly spread among teams. Vikings reclaim the #1 spot after the Falcons lose at home to the Chargers, who move up four spots to tenth overall. Dolphins, Jets and Colts all moved more than four spots in the right direction after winning this week. Rams, Titans, Texans and Seahawks all dropped more than four spots in the rankings. Browns winless odds: 10.5%

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Make Playoffs Make SB Win SB Prev. Movement
1 Minnesota Vikings 76.8% 12.7 87.1% 31.6% 21.5%              2                         1
2 New England Patriots 75.2% 13.0 >99% 44.3% 24.1%              3                         1
3 Atlanta Falcons 72.5% 10.6 73.5% 10.5% 5.0%              1                      (2)
4 Dallas Cowboys 72.4% 11.8 83.7% 23.0% 14.0%              5                         1
5 Philadelphia Eagles 71.5% 10.5 70.6% 10.8% 5.4%              8                         3
6 Buffalo Bills 65.1% 10.1 76.2% 10.1% 3.6%              4                      (2)
7 Green Bay Packers 64.6% 10.0 63.4% 8.0% 3.9%              7                        –
8 Washington Redskins 63.2% 9.4 52.7% 4.7% 2.0%              6                      (2)
9 Denver Broncos 62.8% 10.3 78.8% 12.3% 4.7%           11                         2
10 San Diego Chargers 61.7% 9.1 55.1% 4.4% 1.3%           14                         4
11 Arizona Cardinals 60.6% 8.9 42.2% 3.2% 1.3%              9                      (2)
12 Kansas City Chiefs 58.8% 9.9 69.9% 9.3% 3.4%           10                      (2)
13 Oakland Raiders 58.8% 10.1 74.8% 10.6% 3.9%           13                        –
14 New York Giants 48.7% 8.3 30.6% 1.9% <1%           17                         3
15 Pittsburgh Steelers 48.3% 9.1 52.2% 4.5% 1.4%           16                         1
16 Seattle Seahawks 47.7% 9.0 43.3% 3.9% 1.7%           12                      (4)
17 Cincinnati Bengals 46.2% 7.6 21.1% 1.1% <1%           19                         2
18 Miami Dolphins 46.1% 7.3 16.1% <1% <1%           24                         6
19 Detroit Lions 45.8% 7.9 23.1% 1.2% <1%           18                      (1)
20 New Orleans Saints 44.3% 6.9 10.6% <1% <1%           23                         3
21 Indianapolis Colts 42.7% 7.1 13.9% <1% <1%           25                         4
22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41.0% 6.8 9.1% <1% <1%           22                        –
23 New York Jets 40.4% 6.0 4.4% <1% <1%           28                         5
24 Los Angeles Rams 40.2% 6.9 9.7% <1% <1%           15                      (9)
25 Houston Texans 36.6% 7.9 26.4% 1.6% <1%           21                      (4)
26 Tennessee Titans 32.5% 6.5 7.6% <1% <1%           20                      (6)
27 Carolina Panthers 30.0% 3.7 <1% <1% <1%           27                        –
28 Baltimore Ravens 28.4% 5.7 2.4% <1% <1%           26                      (2)
29 Chicago Bears 25.1% 3.4 <1% <1% <1%           29                        –
30 Jacksonville Jaguars 22.8% 4.4 <1% <1% <1%           30                        –
31 San Francisco 49ers 21.4% 3.0 <1% <1% <1%           31                        –
32 Cleveland Browns 20.0% 2.0 <1% <1% <1%           32                        –

Week 7 NFL Preview

Posted: October 20, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:30 Green Bay Packers 86.3% Chicago Bears 13.7%
Sun 12:00 Los Angeles Rams 56.6% New York Giants 43.4%
Sun 12:00 Cincinnati Bengals 70.6% Cleveland Browns 29.4%
Sun 12:00 Detroit Lions 26.2% Washington Redskins 73.8%
Sun 12:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 28.4% Oakland Raiders 71.6%
Sun 12:00 Kansas City Chiefs 73.2% New Orleans Saints 26.8%
Sun 12:00 Miami Dolphins 20.6% Buffalo Bills 79.4%
Sun 12:00 New York Jets 52.8% Baltimore Ravens 47.2%
Sun 12:00 Philadelphia Eagles 37.9% Minnesota Vikings 62.1%
Sun 12:00 Tennessee Titans 60.8% Indianapolis Colts 39.2%
Sun 3:05 Atlanta Falcons 82.7% San Diego Chargers 17.3%
Sun 3:25 San Francisco 49ers 41.6% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 58.4%
Sun 3:25 Pittsburgh Steelers 28.2% New England Patriots 71.8%
Sun 7:30 Arizona Cardinals 58.9% Seattle Seahawks 41.1%
Mon 6:10 Denver Broncos 71.8% Houston Texans 28.2%
Picks of the Week

The week 5 game of the week (3-3) as picked by me is the Cardinals and Seahawks. Kind of a slow week this week in terms of quality match ups. I will take the Cardinals if Palmer plays and Seahawks if he doesn’t. Seattle could begin to run away with the division with a win here. Cardinals 26/17 Seahawks 24/24

Lock of the week (5-1)- Patriots over Steelers. A game that would have been close with one of the all-time greats starting at QB becomes a blowout with Landry Jones starting at QB. Patriots 31 Steelers 13

Upset of the week (1-5)- Bears over Packers. I don’t have much behind this one, just a massive hunch. Probably has something to do with all of Packers injuries and consistent offensive struggles this season. Bears 21 Packers 20

Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed. The current 11.2 game spread is worrisome at 13.2% off, but should improve as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I will begin to monitor how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in. My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault.

W L T %
81+% 12 3 0 80.0%
61-80% 28 26 0 51.9%
51-60% 11 12 0 47.8%
                51                 41                  – 55.4%
Expected Right          63.2 13.2%

Week 8 College Football Playoff Preview

Posted: October 20, 2016 in NCAAF

There are 12 teams remaining in contention for the College Football Playoff.

True Elimination Games (0)

True elimination games are where the winner survives another week and the loser is eliminated from contention. I will provide the days and times for these games.

None this week

Elimination Games (2)

Elimination games are when one team in the game would be eliminated with a loss. That team will be denoted with an asterisk. The other team has either already been eliminated, or can lose the game without being eliminated.

NC State @ Louisville*

Utah* @ UCLA

 

Power Games (1)

These are games between undefeated power-five teams. The loser is not eliminated but is one step closer to being eliminated.

#2 Texas A&M @ #1 Alabama

The maximum number of teams that could remain in contention for the college football playoff after this week is 12 teams. The minimum number of teams is 10.

Week 7 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: October 17, 2016 in NFL

Vikings not begin #1 is ultimate shock but marginal difference, they have outperformed the Falcons on the season but because of their bye week they are still being weighed down by their preseason projection. Look for their ranking to jump up next week, if they play well. Panthers and Steelers both dropped a lot of spots this week as preseason projections lost their meaning for teams without bye weeks and the Panthers and Steelers haven’t looked great by any means. At least the Steelers have flashed potential but they did just lose big to Miami. One thing worthy of noting is that the odds to make playoffs/super bowl are based on the assumption that every team performs at the same level for the rest of the season-as we know teams can turn things around at any time and it is highly unlikely that teams perform at the same exact level for all 16 games. With that said a system that can account for volatility in team’s performances is not something I currently am capable of doing, so when looking at the odds to make playoffs no that they are probably a decent amount closer to 50% and the odds of making/winning the Super Bowl are probably more even across the board.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Make Playoffs Make SB Win SB Prev. Movement
1 Atlanta Falcons 79.4% 12.0 85.0% 20.0% 12.3%              3                         2
2 Minnesota Vikings 79.2% 13.4 87.3% 30.1% 22.9%              1                      (1)
3 New England Patriots 74.5% 12.6 >99% 37.8% 17.1%              6                         3
4 Buffalo Bills 73.4% 11.7 >99% 25.9% 10.1%           10                         6
5 Dallas Cowboys 72.1% 11.8 83.0% 18.4% 11.4%              9                         4
6 Washington Redskins 71.9% 10.9 76.4% 11.6% 6.3%           15                         9
7 Green Bay Packers 67.2% 9.9 60.4% 6.1% 3.0%              2                      (5)
8 Philadelphia Eagles 65.6% 9.0 44.1% 3.2% 1.4%              5                      (3)
9 Arizona Cardinals 60.0% 8.5 34.5% 1.9% <1%           11                         2
10 Kansas City Chiefs 57.6% 9.8 71.2% 8.4% 2.7%           13                         3
11 Denver Broncos 57.5% 9.8 72.6% 8.5% 2.7%              7                      (4)
12 Seattle Seahawks 56.1% 9.7 56.9% 5.6% 2.8%           12                        –
13 Oakland Raiders 53.3% 9.6 67.0% 7.1% 2.2%              8                      (5)
14 San Diego Chargers 49.6% 7.4 20.5% <1% <1%           23                         9
15 Los Angeles Rams 48.8% 8.2 28.1% 1.4% <1%           18                         3
16 Pittsburgh Steelers 48.3% 9.3 60.5% 5.7% 1.7%              4                    (12)
17 New York Giants 47.2% 7.7 21.0% <1% <1%           17                        –
18 Detroit Lions 42.6% 6.9 10.2% <1% <1%           19                         1
19 Cincinnati Bengals 40.3% 6.6 10.2% <1% <1%           16                      (3)
20 Tennessee Titans 39.9% 7.8 27.6% 1.5% <1%           20                        –
21 Houston Texans 39.4% 8.6 43.2% 3.1% <1%           22                         1
22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38.5% 6.2 5.9% <1% <1%           25                         3
23 New Orleans Saints 37.8% 6.4 7.0% <1% <1%           26                         3
24 Miami Dolphins 36.9% 5.9 4.4% <1% <1%           30                         6
25 Indianapolis Colts 34.3% 5.8 4.0% <1% <1%           29                         4
26 Baltimore Ravens 31.1% 6.5 8.5% <1% <1%           21                      (5)
27 Carolina Panthers 29.6% 3.6 <1% <1% <1%           14                    (13)
28 New York Jets 29.2% 4.6 <1% <1% <1%           24                      (4)
29 Chicago Bears 28.4% 3.6 <1% <1% <1%           27                      (2)
30 Jacksonville Jaguars 27.0% 5.0 1.4% <1% <1%           31                         1
31 San Francisco 49ers 26.7% 4.0 <1% <1% <1%           28                      (3)
32 Cleveland Browns 25.6% 3.0 <1% <1% <1%           32                        –

Week 6 NFL Preview

Posted: October 13, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 San Diego Chargers 32.2% Denver Broncos 67.8%
Sun 12:00 Buffalo Bills 76.5% San Francisco 49ers 23.5%
Sun 12:00 Chicago Bears 59.2% Jacksonville Jaguars 40.8%
Sun 12:00 Detroit Lions 54.9% Los Angeles Rams 45.1%
Sun 12:00 Miami Dolphins 19.2% Pittsburgh Steelers 80.8%
Sun 12:00 New England Patriots 71.1% Cincinnati Bengals 28.9%
Sun 12:00 New Orleans Saints 42.2% Carolina Panthers 57.8%
Sun 12:00 New York Giants 56.9% Baltimore Ravens 43.1%
Sun 12:00 Tennessee Titans 79.7% Cleveland Browns 20.3%
Sun 12:00 Washington Redskins 39.5% Philadelphia Eagles 60.5%
Sun 3:05 Oakland Raiders 62.2% Kansas City Chiefs 37.8%
Sun 3:25 Green Bay Packers 73.0% Dallas Cowboys 27.0%
Sun 3:25 Seattle Seahawks 38.9% Atlanta Falcons 61.1%
Sun 7:30 Houston Texans 64.5% Indianapolis Colts 35.5%
Mon 7:30 Arizona Cardinals 70.9% New York Jets 29.1%
Picks of the Week

The week 5 game of the week (2-3) as picked by me is the Seahawks traveling to the Falcons.I clearly have been able to pick games with even a hint of analysis thus far so I will just break it down like this. The Falcons are coming into Seattle with an opportunity to really prove how legit they are. They already have wins over Carolina and Denver and a win over Seattle would catapult them into one of the top teams in the NFL (if they aren’t already). Seattle is just as good as past years. Seahawks 28 Falcons 24

Lock of the week (5-0)- Steelers over Dolphins. I don’t want to pick against the Browns every week and the Bills were my next favorite pick, but who knows what Kaep will do. Steelers 37 Dolphins 14

Upset of the week (0-5)- I should probably stop picking upsets because clearly I am not good at it. I will go with Cowboys over Packers. Cowboys 27 Packers 23

Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed. The current 9.2 game spread is worrisome at 11.9% off, but should improve as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I will begin to monitor how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in. My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault.

W L T %
81+% 12 2 0 85.7%
61-80% 23 21 0 52.3%
51-60% 9 10 0 47.4%
                44                 33                  – 57.1%
Expected Right          53.2 11.9%

Week 7 College Football Playoff Preview

Posted: October 13, 2016 in NCAAF

There are 19 teams remaining in contention for the College Football Playoff.

True Elimination Games (0)

True elimination games are where the winner survives another week and the loser is eliminated from contention. I will provide the days and times for these games.

None this week

Elimination Games (10)

Elimination games are when one team in the game would be eliminated with a loss. That team will be denoted with an asterisk. The other team has either already been eliminated, or can lose the game without being eliminated.

Duke @ #10 Louisville*

#6 Ohio State @ #11 Wisconsin*

#5 Alabama @ #12 Tennessee*

Missouri @ #13 Florida*

North Carolina @ #14 Miami U*

#15 Virginia Tech* @ Syracuse

#16 Utah* @ Oregon State

#17 Arizona State* @ Colorado

#18 Wake Forest* @ Florida State

#19 Maryland* @ Minnesota

 

Power Games (0)

These are games between undefeated power-five teams. The loser is not eliminated but is one step closer to being eliminated.

None this week

The maximum number of teams that could remain in contention for the college football playoff after this week is 19 teams. The minimum number of teams is 9.

Week 6 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: October 10, 2016 in NFL

Instead of talking about who did good, who did bad I will go into detail about the Vikings journey to 16-0 and the Browns journey to 0-16. The Vikings are fairly large favorites in a majority of their remaining games and are favored in every game. The toughest game left on their schedule is at Green Bay in week 16. The numbers say to expect their first loss by the time they play in Detroit (their 11th game of the season). All-in-all they have a 12% of finishing the season 16-0. On the flip side, Cleveland are large underdogs throughout the rest of their season and their best chance to win a game is when they host the New York Jets. The numbers expect the Browns to win  a game prior to a home a game against Pittsburgh (11th game of the season). Overall, they have a 7.7% chance of finishing the season 0-16.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Make Playoffs Make SB Win SB Prev. Movement
1 Minnesota Vikings 83.9% 14.1 96.9% 37.7% 27.7%              1                        –
2 Green Bay Packers 75.5% 11.6 89.6% 19.2% 10.7%              2                        –
3 Atlanta Falcons 69.8% 11.6 89.5% 18.6% 10.2%              9                         6
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 69.8% 12.2 98.9% 29.8% 14.0%              3                      (1)
5 Philadelphia Eagles 65.3% 9.9 65.4% 7.2% 3.3%              4                      (1)
6 New England Patriots 65.2% 11.2 91.0% 19.5% 8.2%              6                        –
7 Denver Broncos 62.6% 11.1 89.1% 18.0% 7.4%              5                      (2)
8 Dallas Cowboys 58.1% 9.7 62.5% 6.3% 2.8%           15                         7
9 Oakland Raiders 57.8% 10.6 83.0% 14.1% 5.6%           11                         2
10 Buffalo Bills 57.4% 9.9 70.4% 8.5% 3.0%           13                         3
11 Arizona Cardinals 57.3% 8.2 31.8% 1.7% <1%           12                         1
12 Seattle Seahawks 54.6% 9.0 48.8% 3.9% 1.7%           10                      (2)
13 Kansas City Chiefs 51.8% 8.4 38.0% 2.8% <1%           14                         1
14 Washington Redskins 50.1% 8.2 31.6% 1.8% <1%           22                         8
15 Carolina Panthers 49.4% 6.5 8.4% <1% <1%              8                      (7)
16 Cincinnati Bengals 48.2% 7.6 23.6% 1.3% <1%              7                      (9)
17 New York Giants 46.5% 7.4 18.3% <1% <1%           17                        –
18 Los Angeles Rams 45.3% 8.2 32.2% 1.8% <1%           19                         1
19 Detroit Lions 45.1% 6.7 10.8% <1% <1%           31                      12
20 Tennessee Titans 45.0% 8.0 30.5% 1.8% <1%           28                         8
21 Baltimore Ravens 44.6% 7.8 25.6% 1.5% <1%           16                      (5)
22 Houston Texans 41.5% 8.2 33.3% 2.2% <1%           20                      (2)
23 San Diego Chargers 40.9% 5.9 4.8% <1% <1%           25                         2
24 New York Jets 40.2% 6.3 7.4% <1% <1%           21                      (3)
25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38.3% 6.5 8.6% <1% <1%           26                         1
26 New Orleans Saints 36.9% 5.6 3.6% <1% <1%           23                      (3)
27 Chicago Bears 34.0% 4.5 <1% <1% <1%           18                      (9)
28 San Francisco 49ers 33.5% 5.0 1.4% <1% <1%           29                         1
29 Indianapolis Colts 32.2% 5.4 2.6% <1% <1%           24                      (5)
30 Miami Dolphins 30.9% 4.5 <1% <1% <1%           27                      (3)
31 Jacksonville Jaguars 30.3% 4.6 1.0% <1% <1%           30                      (1)
32 Cleveland Browns 20.3% 2.3 <1% <1% <1%           32                        –