Week 5 NFL Preview

Posted: October 6, 2016 in NFL
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 San Francisco 49ers 29.2% Arizona Cardinals 70.8%
Sun 12:00 Baltimore Ravens 65.0% Washington Redskins 35.0%
Sun 12:00 Cleveland Browns 19.6% New England Patriots 80.4%
Sun 12:00 Detroit Lions 21.2% Philadelphia Eagles 78.8%
Sun 12:00 Indianapolis Colts 46.9% Chicago Bears 53.1%
Sun 12:00 Miami Dolphins 55.9% Tennessee Titans 44.1%
Sun 12:00 Minnesota Vikings 86.7% Houston Texans 13.3%
Sun 12:00 Pittsburgh Steelers 79.7% New York Jets 20.3%
Sun 3:05 Denver Broncos 59.2% Atlanta Falcons 40.8%
Sun 3:25 Dallas Cowboys 46.6% Cincinnati Bengals 53.4%
Sun 3:25 Los Angeles Rams 44.0% Buffalo Bills 56.0%
Sun 3:25 Oakland Raiders 74.5% San Diego Chargers 25.5%
Sun 7:30 Green Bay Packers 82.6% New York Giants 17.4%
Mon 7:30 Carolina Panthers 76.5% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23.5%
Picks of the Week

The week 5 game of the week (2-2) as picked by me is the Cowboys hosting the Bengals.The Cowboys have gotten off to a 3-1 start behind rookie Dak Prescott, who has played so well that Tony Romo may have to start worrying about his starting position. The Bengals are 2-2 and will be playing this game on 10 days rest after the defeated the Dolphins last Thursday night. The Bengals are slight road favorites and I will stick with them for this game. Bengals 27 Cowboys 24

Lock of the week (4-0)- Patriots over Browns. Brady’s back and playing Cleveland, not much else to say. Patriots 38 Browns 16

Upset of the week (0-4)- Bengals over Cowboys-see game of the week.


Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed. The current 6.5 game spread is not horrible at 10.2% off, and should improve as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I will begin to monitor how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in.

W L T %
80+% 10 2 0 83.3%
61-80% 19 18 0 51.4%
51-60% 8 6 0 57.1%
                37                 26                  –
Expected Right          43.5 10.3%

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