Week 6 NFL Preview

Posted: October 13, 2016 in NFL
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 San Diego Chargers 32.2% Denver Broncos 67.8%
Sun 12:00 Buffalo Bills 76.5% San Francisco 49ers 23.5%
Sun 12:00 Chicago Bears 59.2% Jacksonville Jaguars 40.8%
Sun 12:00 Detroit Lions 54.9% Los Angeles Rams 45.1%
Sun 12:00 Miami Dolphins 19.2% Pittsburgh Steelers 80.8%
Sun 12:00 New England Patriots 71.1% Cincinnati Bengals 28.9%
Sun 12:00 New Orleans Saints 42.2% Carolina Panthers 57.8%
Sun 12:00 New York Giants 56.9% Baltimore Ravens 43.1%
Sun 12:00 Tennessee Titans 79.7% Cleveland Browns 20.3%
Sun 12:00 Washington Redskins 39.5% Philadelphia Eagles 60.5%
Sun 3:05 Oakland Raiders 62.2% Kansas City Chiefs 37.8%
Sun 3:25 Green Bay Packers 73.0% Dallas Cowboys 27.0%
Sun 3:25 Seattle Seahawks 38.9% Atlanta Falcons 61.1%
Sun 7:30 Houston Texans 64.5% Indianapolis Colts 35.5%
Mon 7:30 Arizona Cardinals 70.9% New York Jets 29.1%
Picks of the Week

The week 5 game of the week (2-3) as picked by me is the Seahawks traveling to the Falcons.I clearly have been able to pick games with even a hint of analysis thus far so I will just break it down like this. The Falcons are coming into Seattle with an opportunity to really prove how legit they are. They already have wins over Carolina and Denver and a win over Seattle would catapult them into one of the top teams in the NFL (if they aren’t already). Seattle is just as good as past years. Seahawks 28 Falcons 24

Lock of the week (5-0)- Steelers over Dolphins. I don’t want to pick against the Browns every week and the Bills were my next favorite pick, but who knows what Kaep will do. Steelers 37 Dolphins 14

Upset of the week (0-5)- I should probably stop picking upsets because clearly I am not good at it. I will go with Cowboys over Packers. Cowboys 27 Packers 23


Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed. The current 9.2 game spread is worrisome at 11.9% off, but should improve as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I will begin to monitor how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in. My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault.

W L T %
81+% 12 2 0 85.7%
61-80% 23 21 0 52.3%
51-60% 9 10 0 47.4%
                44                 33                  – 57.1%
Expected Right          53.2 11.9%

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