Week 7 NFL Preview

Posted: October 20, 2016 in NFL
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:30 Green Bay Packers 86.3% Chicago Bears 13.7%
Sun 12:00 Los Angeles Rams 56.6% New York Giants 43.4%
Sun 12:00 Cincinnati Bengals 70.6% Cleveland Browns 29.4%
Sun 12:00 Detroit Lions 26.2% Washington Redskins 73.8%
Sun 12:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 28.4% Oakland Raiders 71.6%
Sun 12:00 Kansas City Chiefs 73.2% New Orleans Saints 26.8%
Sun 12:00 Miami Dolphins 20.6% Buffalo Bills 79.4%
Sun 12:00 New York Jets 52.8% Baltimore Ravens 47.2%
Sun 12:00 Philadelphia Eagles 37.9% Minnesota Vikings 62.1%
Sun 12:00 Tennessee Titans 60.8% Indianapolis Colts 39.2%
Sun 3:05 Atlanta Falcons 82.7% San Diego Chargers 17.3%
Sun 3:25 San Francisco 49ers 41.6% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 58.4%
Sun 3:25 Pittsburgh Steelers 28.2% New England Patriots 71.8%
Sun 7:30 Arizona Cardinals 58.9% Seattle Seahawks 41.1%
Mon 6:10 Denver Broncos 71.8% Houston Texans 28.2%
Picks of the Week

The week 5 game of the week (3-3) as picked by me is the Cardinals and Seahawks. Kind of a slow week this week in terms of quality match ups. I will take the Cardinals if Palmer plays and Seahawks if he doesn’t. Seattle could begin to run away with the division with a win here. Cardinals 26/17 Seahawks 24/24

Lock of the week (5-1)- Patriots over Steelers. A game that would have been close with one of the all-time greats starting at QB becomes a blowout with Landry Jones starting at QB. Patriots 31 Steelers 13

Upset of the week (1-5)- Bears over Packers. I don’t have much behind this one, just a massive hunch. Probably has something to do with all of Packers injuries and consistent offensive struggles this season. Bears 21 Packers 20


Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed. The current 11.2 game spread is worrisome at 13.2% off, but should improve as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I will begin to monitor how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in. My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault.

W L T %
81+% 12 3 0 80.0%
61-80% 28 26 0 51.9%
51-60% 11 12 0 47.8%
                51                 41                  – 55.4%
Expected Right          63.2 13.2%

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