Week 8 NFL Preview

Posted: October 26, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Tennessee Titans 66.6% Jacksonville Jaguars 33.4%
Sun 8:30 Cincinnati Bengals 33.4% Washington Redskins 66.6%
Sun 12:00 Buffalo Bills 42.9% New England Patriots 57.1%
Sun 12:00 Carolina Panthers 25.4% Arizona Cardinals 74.6%
Sun 12:00 Cleveland Browns 31.1% New York Jets 68.9%
Sun 12:00 Houston Texans 45.5% Detroit Lions 54.5%
Sun 12:00 Indianapolis Colts 38.9% Kansas City Chiefs 61.1%
Sun 12:00 New Orleans Saints 51.6% Seattle Seahawks 48.4%
Sun 12:00 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37.3% Oakland Raiders 62.7%
Sun 3:05 Denver Broncos 56.1% San Diego Chargers 43.9%
Sun 3:25 Atlanta Falcons 63.7% Green Bay Packers 36.3%
Sun 7:30 Dallas Cowboys 56.1% Philadelphia Eagles 43.9%
Mon 7:30 Chicago Bears 11.0% Minnesota Vikings 89.0%
Picks of the Week

The week 5 game of the week (3-3-1) as picked by me is the Cowboys hosting the Eagles in a divisional showdown on Sunday night. The 5-1 Cowboys have looked extremely solid behind young studs Dak Prescott & Ezekiel Elliott and an improved defense. The Eagles started strong and have fallen off but got a big win against Minnesota last week. I think Dallas is the better team and they are home in this one. Cowboys 24 Eagles 21

Lock of the week (6-1)- I don’t really like calling any of these games lock but if I had to pick it would be the Vikings over the Bears on Monday Night. Vikings 27 Bears 17

Upset of the week (1-6)- Bengals over Washington. Cincinnati is actually 3 point favorites but my upset is essentially where I disagree with my simulation. So I will take the Bengals in London.

Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed. The current 14.4 game spread is worrisome at 13.6% off, but should improve as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I will begin to monitor how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (Post Week 6 results – expected 10.26, actual 8, 15.1%). My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault.

W L T %
81+% 13 4 0 76.5%
61-80% 33 30 0 52.4%
51-60% 13 13 1 50.0%
                59                 47                   1 55.6%
Expected Right          73.41 13.6%
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