Archive for November, 2016

Week 13 NFL Preview

Posted: November 30, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Minnesota Vikings 23.9% Dallas Cowboys 76.1%
Sun 12:00 Atlanta Falcons 60.6% Kansas City Chiefs 39.4%
Sun 12:00 Baltimore Ravens 55.9% Miami Dolphins 44.1%
Sun 12:00 Chicago Bears 62.4% San Francisco 49ers 37.6%
Sun 12:00 Cincinnati Bengals 48.2% Philadelphia Eagles 51.8%
Sun 12:00 Green Bay Packers 63.8% Houston Texans 36.2%
Sun 12:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 23.5% Denver Broncos 76.5%
Sun 12:00 New England Patriots 83.2% Los Angeles Rams 16.8%
Sun 12:00 New Orleans Saints 66.9% Detroit Lions 33.1%
Sun 3:05 Oakland Raiders 64.1% Buffalo Bills 35.9%
Sun 3:25 Arizona Cardinals 28.5% Washington Redskins 71.5%
Sun 3:25 Pittsburgh Steelers 63.9% New York Giants 36.1%
Sun 3:25 San Diego Chargers 57.3% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 42.7%
Sun 7:30 Seattle Seahawks 68.0% Carolina Panthers 32.0%
Mon 7:30 New York Jets 46.4% Indianapolis Colts 53.6%
Picks of the Week

The week 12 game of the week (5-5-1) is the Pittsburgh Steelers playing host to the New York Giants. The Giants are now an unbelievable 8-3 after a 6 game win streak and now face a Steelers team that is 6-5 and outside of the playoff picture. Both teams are playing for a Wild Card spot down the stretch, although the Steelers can probably catch the Ravens for the division crown. This game means more for the Steelers than it does the Giants and they are home, so I will take the Steelers. Steelers 27 Giants 21

Lock of the week (10-2)- Patriots over the Rams. Rams gave up 49 points to the Saints last week and now travel to New England to play Brady. It’s that simple. Patriots 38 Rams 17

Upset of the week (2-9-1)- Clearly not good at picking these games but let’s go with the Chiefs over Falcons. I don’t really think it will happen but is probably the best option.

 Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 13.3 game spread is stronger at just 7.5% off, and should continue its improvent as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I have begun monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (Post Week 6 results – expected 57.1, actual 56, 1.3%). My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate.

W L T %
81+% 22 5 0 81.5%
61-80% 58 41 1 58.5%
51-60% 27 23 1 53.9%
          107          69              2 60.7%
Expected Right     120.29 7.5%
Clinching Scenarios

The first opportunity to clinch a playoff berth is this week with the Dallas Cowboys. I will begin to provide probabilities of teams clinching the playoffs given certain scenarios on a weekly basis.

Dallas can clinch a playoff berth with.. (overall chance = 65.3%)

  1. Dallas Win + Tampa Bay Loss/Tie = 43.6%
  2. Dallas Win + Washington Loss = 21.7%
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Week 4 Mid Major 15

Posted: November 30, 2016 in NCAA

The Mid Major 15 is a ranking of the top 15 mid-major teams in the country. Conferences excluded from these rankings are the power-7: ACC, American, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. The teams that appear on this list are likely good names to know when searching for Cinderella come March. Although, St. Mary’s and Gonzaga will likely be top seeds in March.

Rank Team Conf POWER Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record
1 Saint Mary’s WCC 88.1% 25 – 4 15 – 3
2 Gonzaga WCC 86.1% 25 – 5 14 – 4
3 VCU A10 77.6% 23 – 8 12 – 6
4 Wichita St. MVC 75.6% 22 – 8 13 – 5
5 Dayton A10 75.3% 19 – 10 12 – 6
6 BYU WCC 75.0% 21 – 10 12 – 6
7 Rhode Island A10 74.8% 20 – 10 12 – 6
8 Princeton Ivy 74.7% 17 – 9 10 – 4
9 San Diego St. MWC 72.9% 19 – 8 12 – 6
10 Ohio MAC 72.4% 20 – 8 12 – 6
11 UT Arlington SB 71.8% 19 – 10 13 – 5
12 Valparaiso Horz 71.7% 23 – 7 13 – 5
13 Akron MAC 69.6% 19 – 10 11 – 7
14 UNC Wilmington CAA 69.5% 20 – 10 12 – 6
15 Monmouth MAAC 69.3% 20 – 11 14 – 6

Week 13 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: November 28, 2016 in NFL

Another week with Dallas sitting at #1 and they have distanced themselves from the rest of the NFL by quite a bit. Atlanta jumps to 2 overall after the Seahawks were upset in Tampa Bay. Seattle dropped 4 spots to 5. The Redskins, who played a good game in Dallas is up to #3 with New England and Oakland coming in at 4 and 5. The Packers finally looked like the team we expected and have moved up 6 spots to 20th overall. Meanwhile division rival Vikings fell 6 spots as did the team that the Eagles beat, Philadelphia. With only 5 games remaining per team (except for Cleveland and Tennessee, who each have 4 games left) the odds for making and missing the playoffs are probably fairly accurate compared to earlier in the season.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Make Playoffs Miss Playoffs Make SB Win SB Prev. Movement
1 Dallas Cowboys 77.4% 13.8 >99% <1% 55.0% 36.3%            1                    –
2 Atlanta Falcons 67.8% 10.5 89.6% 10.4% 11.4% 4.2%            6                     4
3 Washington Redskins 66.8% 10.0 66.7% 33.3% 4.5% 1.4%            5                     2
4 New England Patriots 65.9% 12.5 92.8% 7.2% 37.7% 21.4%            3                   (1)
5 Oakland Raiders 64.4% 11.8 91.1% 8.9% 27.4% 14.0%            4                   (1)
6 Seattle Seahawks 64.1% 11.2 92.7% 7.3% 13.0% 4.9%            2                   (4)
7 Kansas City Chiefs 62.6% 10.7 82.5% 17.5% 13.3% 5.6%         10                     3
8 New Orleans Saints 62.0% 7.8 20.6% 79.4% <1% <1%         12                     4
9 Denver Broncos 60.2% 9.8 65.6% 34.4% 6.0% 2.2%            7                   (2)
10 Pittsburgh Steelers 59.0% 9.3 53.9% 46.1% 3.5% 1.1%         13                     3
11 San Diego Chargers 58.8% 8.0 22.4% 77.6% <1% <1%         11                    –
12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56.5% 7.9 20.6% 79.4% <1% <1%         16                     4
13 Buffalo Bills 55.3% 9.0 48.1% 51.9% 2.9% <1%            9                   (4)
14 Philadelphia Eagles 53.6% 7.3 12.0% 88.0% <1% <1%            8                   (6)
15 Carolina Panthers 50.7% 5.8 1.3% 98.7% <1% <1%         18                     3
16 New York Giants 49.8% 9.9 74.4% 25.6% 6.9% 2.4%         17                     1
17 Detroit Lions 49.7% 9.3 58.2% 41.8% 4.1% 1.3%         19                     2
18 Baltimore Ravens 49.3% 8.2 25.5% 74.5% 1.2% <1%         21                     3
19 Miami Dolphins 48.5% 9.4 56.4% 43.6% 4.4% 1.5%         14                   (5)
20 Green Bay Packers 47.4% 7.6 17.3% 82.7% <1% <1%         26                     6
21 Minnesota Vikings 46.8% 8.6 41.1% 58.9% 2.2% <1%         15                   (6)
22 Cincinnati Bengals 46.8% 6.3 <1% >99% <1% <1%         20                   (2)
23 Tennessee Titans 45.4% 8.0 19.8% 80.2% <1% <1%         24                     1
24 Indianapolis Colts 43.3% 7.5 13.3% 86.7% <1% <1%         22                   (2)
25 Arizona Cardinals 39.6% 6.2 1.0% 99.0% <1% <1%         23                   (2)
26 Houston Texans 38.5% 8.3 27.5% 72.5% 1.4% <1%         25                   (1)
27 New York Jets 35.1% 5.0 <1% >99% <1% <1%         28                     1
28 Los Angeles Rams 32.4% 5.7 1.0% 99.0% <1% <1%         27                   (1)
29 Chicago Bears 30.8% 3.8 <1% >99% <1% <1%         29                    –
30 Jacksonville Jaguars 27.6% 3.6 <1% >99% <1% <1%         30                    –
31 San Francisco 49ers 24.7% 2.4 <1% >99% <1% <1%         31                    –
32 Cleveland Browns 14.5% 0.5 Eliminated         32                    –

Week 4 College Basketball Top 25

Posted: November 28, 2016 in NCAA
Top 25
Rank Team Conf POWER Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Villanova BE 93.0% 27 – 4 15 – 3 2 1
2 Duke ACC 92.3% 25 – 6 13 – 5 1 -1
3 Kentucky SEC 92.1% 27 – 4 15 – 3 3 0
4 North Carolina ACC 91.5% 25 – 6 13 – 5 4 0
5 Virginia ACC 89.8% 23 – 7 13 – 5 13 8
6 Saint Mary’s WCC 88.3% 25 – 4 15 – 3 10 4
7 UCLA P12 86.6% 24 – 7 13 – 5 44 37
8 Gonzaga WCC 86.2% 25 – 5 14 – 4 12 4
9 Ohio St. B10 84.0% 23 – 8 12 – 6 15 6
10 Louisville ACC 83.9% 21 – 10 11 – 7 6 -4
11 Kansas B12 83.2% 21 – 10 11 – 7 7 -4
12 Cincinnati Amer 83.1% 23 – 8 13 – 5 14 2
13 Oregon P12 82.7% 21 – 9 11 – 7 5 -8
14 Notre Dame ACC 82.3% 22 – 9 11 – 7 45 31
15 Wisconsin B10 82.1% 21 – 10 11 – 7 9 -6
16 Butler BE 81.9% 21 – 9 11 – 7 21 5
17 Florida SEC 81.7% 22 – 9 12 – 6 19 2
18 Arizona P12 81.4% 22 – 9 11 – 7 8 -10
19 Iowa St. B12 80.9% 20 – 10 10 – 8 35 16
20 Baylor B12 80.8% 21 – 9 10 – 8 43 23
21 Purdue B10 80.7% 21 – 10 11 – 7 16 -5
22 Creighton BE 80.5% 21 – 8 11 – 7 34 12
23 Indiana B10 79.4% 20 – 11 11 – 7 24 1
24 Texas Tech B12 79.3% 21 – 10 10 – 8 52 28
25 Virginia Tech ACC 79.1% 20 – 10 10 – 8 49 24

Dropped Out: Xavier, Syracuse, VCU, BYU, Dayton, Princeton, Michigan St.

The top four teams remained the same with Villanova just passing Duke up for #1 overall. Virginia jumped into the top 5 after an impressive start to the season while former #5 Oregon has struggled, dropping to 13. Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga have both been very impressive thus far and are both ranked in top 10. UCLA has gotten off to quite the start and is up 37 spots to 7.

Largest risers in entire 351 team rankings: Rutgers (+146), Arkansas St. (+136), Tennessee St. (+112), Missouri St. (+111)

Largest fallers in entire 351 team rankings: UC Irvine (-79), Tulsa (-78), Evansville (-76), Green Bay (-73), South Dakota St. (-70)

The complete ranking, sorted in order of projected conference standings, can be found here.

Week 13 College Football Playoff Preview

Posted: November 23, 2016 in NCAAF

There are 5 teams remaining in contention for the College Football Playoff.

The committee obviously disagrees with my satire, which makes this more of a joke than it already is. But anyways here we go. – update – committee doesn’t necessarily disagree, just has been forced into a situation they haven’t seen before.

Games this week

#4 Michigan @ #3 Ohio State

The winner is eliminated, loser can look forward to meaningless bowl game

Auburn @ #1 Alabama

Iron Bowl – Alabama clinches playoff trip with a win.

#2 Washington @ Washington State

Apple Cup – Trip to Pac-12 championship is on the line. Washington is Pac-12’s only chance at a playoff, they lose it throws a wrench into my satire, but I don’t think they lose this one.

South Carolina @ #5 Clemson

Clemson should win this one and move into top four.

The maximum number of teams that could remain in contention for the college football playoff after this week is 4 teams. The minimum number of teams is 1-which kind of sucks but don’t worry, my system will prevail.
Now time for my rant about College Football and its current playoff system. College Football has the only playoff system in the entire world (that I know of) that doesn’t give every team a fair chance at the playoff. And you can argue all you want but it isn’t fair. Western Michigan is 11-0 and has won games by an average of 26 points and their closest game is a 1-point victory in Northwestern. Outside of that game they haven’t no team has been within 10 points of them. Regardless of schedule that is impressive. Do I think they could beat Alabama? Probably not. But the fact is we are never going to now because the current playoff system does not allow that question to be answered. This is why I am an advocate for a 16-team playoff with 10 autobids for all power 5 and group of 5 conference champions and then 6 additional at large bids. Could a game like Alabama vs. Troy get out of hand? Absolutely, but every team deserves an equal chance at a national championship. Plus bowl games are stupid and meaningless and we can get rid of them. Give the Top 8 seeds home field in the playoff if you want to reward regular season. Make this more interesting than it already is. When the committee finalizes their rankings and we have a four-team playoff I will publish the bracket of what a 16-team playoff would look like and you can decide which you would rather watch.

Week 12 NFL Preview

Posted: November 23, 2016 in NFL

Happy Thanksgiving everybody. Here we go.

Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 11:30a Detroit Lions 53.9% Minnesota Vikings 46.1%
Thu 3:30 Dallas Cowboys 70.7% Washington Redskins 29.3%
Thu 7:30 Indianapolis Colts 49.7% Pittsburgh Steelers 50.3%
Sun 12:00 Chicago Bears 39.2% Tennessee Titans 60.8%
Sun 12:00 Buffalo Bills 84.0% Jacksonville Jaguars 16.0%
Sun 12:00 Baltimore Ravens 54.9% Cincinnati Bengals 45.1%
Sun 12:00 Atlanta Falcons 71.7% Arizona Cardinals 28.3%
Sun 12:00 Cleveland Browns 20.0% New York Giants 80.0%
Sun 12:00 New Orleans Saints 72.4% Los Angeles Rams 27.6%
Sun 12:00 Miami Dolphins 79.8% San Francisco 49ers 20.2%
Sun 12:00 Houston Texans 41.7% San Diego Chargers 58.3%
Sun 3:05 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34.5% Seattle Seahawks 65.5%
Sun 3:25 Oakland Raiders 70.8% Carolina Panthers 29.2%
Sun 3:25 New York Jets 20.3% New England Patriots 79.7%
Sun 7:30 Denver Broncos 56.9% Kansas City Chiefs 43.1%
Mon 7:30 Philadelphia Eagles 74.5% Green Bay Packers 25.5%
Picks of the Week

The week 12 game of the week (4-5-1) as chosen by me is a Turkey Day showdown between the Cowboys and Redskins. The Cowboys have looked near unstoppable but are playing against a pretty good Washington team. I also think it is fun that the Cowboys and Redskins are playing on Thanksgiving day. I expect the Cowboys to win this game, especially at home. Cowboys 31 Washington 28

Lock of the week (9-2)- Bills over Jaguars. Still can’t believe Gus Bradley still has a head coaching job for the Jaguars. Bills 31 Jaguars 17

Upset of the week (2-8-1)- Clearly not good at picking these games but let’s go with the Panthers beating the Raiders in Oakland… Why not right? Panthers 31 Raiders 27

 Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting better. The current 15.4 game spread is stronger at 9.7% off, but should improve as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I have begun monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (Post Week 6 results – expected 46.3, actual 43, 4.8%). My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that is been pretty accurate.

W L T %
81+% 21 5 0 80.8%
61-80% 50 39 1 56.1%
51-60% 23 22 1 51.1%
             94        66              2 58.6%
Expected Right     109.44 9.7%

Week 12 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: November 21, 2016 in NFL

The Cowboys remain atop the Power Rankings and now have a considerable margin. The NFL as a whole seems to be a lot tighter this year compared to last year as at the end of last season there were a lot more teams with a POWER rating of greater than 70%. The Seahawks jumped up to 2 after another impressive win over Philadelphia. The Patriots and Raiders were jumped by the Seahawks and dropped 1 spot each and another NFC East team enters the top 5 in Washington. The Vikings finally got back on a track with a win and moved up 8 spots this week. The Buccaneers (+6) and the Ravens (+5) also moved up a decent amount this week. On the other end of the spectrum, the Titans fell 7 spots and the Packers fell 5 more spots to 26. It doesn’t look like the preseason Super Bowl favorite will even make the playoffs. Ouch. In speaking of ouch, Cleveland now has a 41.2% chance of finishing the season 0-16 and has already been eliminated from playoff contention.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Make Playoffs Miss Playoffs Make SB Win SB Prev. Movement
1 Dallas Cowboys 78.4% 13.5 >99% <1% 48.0% 33.4%            1                    –
2 Seattle Seahawks 69.3% 12.1 >99% <1% 23.3% 11.1%            5                     3
3 New England Patriots 68.4% 12.3 94.5% 5.5% 37.4% 19.9%            2                   (1)
4 Oakland Raiders 65.2% 11.6 91.4% 8.6% 25.6% 12.1%            3                   (1)
5 Washington Redskins 64.8% 10.1 67.1% 32.9% 5.2% 1.9%            9                     4
6 Atlanta Falcons 64.0% 10.2 81.8% 18.2% 8.2% 3.2%            6                    –
7 Denver Broncos 61.2% 10.4 78.9% 21.1% 11.8% 4.6%            8                     1
8 Philadelphia Eagles 60.8% 8.5 37.1% 62.9% 1.8% <1%            4                   (4)
9 Buffalo Bills 59.4% 9.1 51.5% 48.5% 3.4% 1.0%         11                     2
10 Kansas City Chiefs 59.3% 10.0 71.2% 28.8% 8.6% 3.2%            7                   (3)
11 San Diego Chargers 56.3% 7.6 15.6% 84.4% <1% <1%         12                     1
12 New Orleans Saints 55.9% 7.4 14.4% 85.6% <1% <1%         10                   (2)
13 Pittsburgh Steelers 52.6% 8.4 33.7% 66.3% 1.9% <1%         15                     2
14 Miami Dolphins 51.9% 9.3 55.3% 44.7% 4.5% 1.5%         14                    –
15 Minnesota Vikings 49.3% 9.3 58.5% 41.5% 4.0% 1.4%         23                     8
16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 49.2% 7.0 9.1% 90.9% <1% <1%         22                     6
17 New York Giants 48.9% 9.6 67.4% 32.6% 5.6% 2.2%         13                   (4)
18 Carolina Panthers 48.6% 6.1 2.8% 97.2% <1% <1%         18                    –
19 Detroit Lions 48.2% 8.9 48.4% 51.6% 2.9% <1%         16                   (3)
20 Cincinnati Bengals 47.8% 6.7 2.8% 97.2% <1% <1%         20                    –
21 Baltimore Ravens 47.7% 7.6 16.3% 83.7% <1% <1%         26                     5
22 Indianapolis Colts 47.4% 8.2 28.0% 72.0% 1.5% <1%         25                     3
23 Arizona Cardinals 46.2% 6.7 3.3% 96.7% <1% <1%         19                   (4)
24 Tennessee Titans 44.6% 7.5 13.9% 86.1% <1% <1%         17                   (7)
25 Houston Texans 43.0% 9.0 46.6% 53.4% 3.4% 1.1%         24                   (1)
26 Green Bay Packers 39.4% 6.4 4.2% 95.8% <1% <1%         21                   (5)
27 Los Angeles Rams 37.2% 6.1 2.6% 97.4% <1% <1%         27                    –
28 New York Jets 31.0% 4.9 <1% >99% <1% <1%         28                    –
29 Chicago Bears 29.8% 4.2 <1% >99% <1% <1%         29                    –
30 Jacksonville Jaguars 25.4% 3.5 <1% >99% <1% <1%         30                    –
31 San Francisco 49ers 25.1% 2.6 <1% >99% <1% <1%         31                    –
32 Cleveland Browns 16.4% 0.8 Eliminated         32                    –

Week 12 College Football Playoff Preview

Posted: November 16, 2016 in NCAAF

There are 7 teams remaining in contention for the College Football Playoff.

The committee obviously disagrees with my satire, which makes this more of a joke than it already is. But anyways here we go.

True Elimination Games (0)

True elimination games are where the winner survives another week and the loser is eliminated from contention. I will provide the days and times for these games.

NONE THIS WEEK

Elimination Games (6)

Elimination games are when one team in the game would be eliminated with a loss. That team will be denoted with an asterisk. The other team has either already been eliminated, or can lose the game without being eliminated.

#2 Louisville* @ Houston

Arizona St. @ #3 Washington*

#4 Ohio State* @ Michigan State

Indiana @ #5 Michigan*

Oklahoma @ #6 West Virginia*

#7 Clemson* @ Wake Forest

The maximum number of teams that could remain in contention for the college football playoff after this week is 7 teams. The minimum number of teams is 1-which kind of sucks but don’t worry, my system will prevail.

Week 11 NFL Preview

Posted: November 16, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Carolina Panthers 44.3% New Orleans Saints 55.7%
Sun 12:00 Cincinnati Bengals 43.5% Buffalo Bills 56.5%
Sun 12:00 Cleveland Browns 18.6% Pittsburgh Steelers 81.4%
Sun 12:00 Dallas Cowboys 83.6% Baltimore Ravens 16.4%
Sun 12:00 Detroit Lions 74.9% Jacksonville Jaguars 25.1%
Sun 12:00 Indianapolis Colts 50.5% Tennessee Titans 49.5%
Sun 12:00 Kansas City Chiefs 72.4% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27.6%
Sun 12:00 Minnesota Vikings 52.4% Arizona Cardinals 47.6%
Sun 12:00 New York Giants 75.3% Chicago Bears 24.7%
Sun 3:05 Los Angeles Rams 42.9% Miami Dolphins 57.1%
Sun 3:25 San Francisco 49ers 14.8% New England Patriots 85.2%
Sun 3:25 Seattle Seahawks 54.3% Philadelphia Eagles 45.7%
Sun 7:30 Washington Redskins 68.9% Green Bay Packers 31.1%
Mon 7:30 Oakland Raiders 71.2% Houston Texans 28.8%
Picks of the Week

The week 11 game of the week (4-4-1) as picked by me is the Cardinals and Vikings. These two teams are both semi-struggling as of late and given the surge of the NFC East, this could become a pivotal matchup in determining who makes the playoffs. The Cardinals haven’t looked as bad of the Vikings recently, and that is why I will take Arizona. Cardinals 22 Vikings 17

Lock of the week (8-2)- Cowboys over Ravens, I am finally picking the Cowboys. Which means they probably will lose. Whatever. Cowboys 24 Ravens 13

Upset of the week (2-7-1)- Packers over Redskins because Christine Michael will somehow solve every single problem with the Packers and they will win out. Packers 42 Redskins 12

Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting better. The current 17.5 game spread is worrisome at 12.4% off, but should improve as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I have begun monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (Post Week 6 results – expected 36.9, actual 31, 14.4%). My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault.

W L T %
81+% 18 5 0 78.3%
61-80% 46 38 1 54.7%
51-60% 18 21 1 46.3%
             82        64              2 56.1%
Expected Right     100.05 12.4%  `

Week 11 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: November 14, 2016 in NFL

A lot of the larger movements that took place this week was among teams ranked near the middle to bottom of the rankings. The Dolphins, Steelers, Titans and Buccaneers all jumped more than 7 spots. Meanwhile the Vikings, Chargers, Colts and Packers all dropped 5+ spots. The Cowboys and Patriots remain at 1 & 2 with the Raiders Eagles and Seahawks rounding out the top 5. The Falcons dropped 3 spots to 6. This season seems very wide open and the playoffs could certainly yield a surprising Super Bowl Champ.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Make Playoffs Make SB Win SB Prev. Movement
1 Dallas Cowboys 76.6% 13.3 >99% 50.7% 32.3%            1                    –
2 New England Patriots 69.3% 12.3 96.2% 35.2% 20.2%            2                    –
3 Oakland Raiders 66.2% 11.4 91.0% 22.3% 11.3%            4                     1
4 Philadelphia Eagles 65.7% 9.2 58.4% 4.6% 1.6%            7                     3
5 Seattle Seahawks 65.0% 11.4 93.7% 17.5% 7.4%            9                     4
6 Atlanta Falcons 64.8% 10.1 82.1% 9.0% 3.3%            3                   (3)
7 Kansas City Chiefs 63.4% 11.0 86.9% 17.6% 8.5%            6                   (1)
8 Denver Broncos 60.7% 10.2 76.9% 9.8% 4.1%            8                    –
9 Washington Redskins 59.9% 9.4 50.3% 3.6% 1.2%         11                     2
10 New Orleans Saints 58.4% 8.1 30.0% 1.5% <1%         10                    –
11 Buffalo Bills 57.9% 8.6 39.1% 2.2% <1%         13                     2
12 San Diego Chargers 56.0% 7.5 15.6% <1% <1%            5                   (7)
13 New York Giants 53.3% 9.6 68.6% 7.0% 2.6%         14                     1
14 Miami Dolphins 50.4% 8.8 44.0% 3.0% 1.0%         23                     9
15 Pittsburgh Steelers 50.0% 8.2 28.8% 1.5% <1%         22                     7
16 Detroit Lions 49.6% 8.7 43.4% 2.8% <1%         16                    –
17 Tennessee Titans 48.7% 8.1 26.2% 1.3% <1%         24                     7
18 Carolina Panthers 47.7% 5.7 1.8% <1% <1%         21                     3
19 Arizona Cardinals 46.9% 7.3 8.4% <1% <1%         15                   (4)
20 Cincinnati Bengals 46.5% 7.1 6.5% <1% <1%         19                   (1)
21 Green Bay Packers 45.1% 7.0 11.0% <1% <1%         12                   (9)
22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44.7% 6.1 3.1% <1% <1%         29                     7
23 Minnesota Vikings 44.3% 8.5 38.0% 2.3% <1%         17                   (6)
24 Houston Texans 44.2% 9.2 54.2% 4.7% 1.8%         20                   (4)
25 Indianapolis Colts 44.2% 7.6 17.5% <1% <1%         18                   (7)
26 Baltimore Ravens 43.9% 7.5 16.6% <1% <1%         27                     1
27 Los Angeles Rams 38.4% 6.6 6.4% <1% <1%         26                   (1)
28 New York Jets 31.8% 5.0 <1% <1% <1%         28                    –
29 Chicago Bears 31.4% 4.5 <1% <1% <1%         25                   (4)
30 Jacksonville Jaguars 28.8% 4.0 <1% <1% <1%         30                    –
31 San Francisco 49ers 24.3% 2.8 <1% <1% <1%         32                     1
32 Cleveland Browns 15.8% 1.0 <1% <1% <1%         31                   (1)