Week 9 NFL Preview

Posted: November 3, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26.7% Atlanta Falcons 73.3%
Sun 12:00 Baltimore Ravens 33.1% Pittsburgh Steelers 66.9%
Sun 12:00 Cleveland Browns 8.6% Dallas Cowboys 91.4%
Sun 12:00 Kansas City Chiefs 91.6% Jacksonville Jaguars 8.4%
Sun 12:00 Miami Dolphins 63.8% New York Jets 36.2%
Sun 12:00 Minnesota Vikings 71.9% Detroit Lions 28.1%
Sun 12:00 New York Giants 32.7% Philadelphia Eagles 67.3%
Sun 3:05 Los Angeles Rams 50.8% Carolina Panthers 49.2%
Sun 3:05 San Francisco 49ers 20.1% New Orleans Saints 79.9%
Sun 3:25 Green Bay Packers 76.3% Indianapolis Colts 23.7%
Sun 3:25 San Diego Chargers 74.1% Tennessee Titans 25.9%
Sun 7:30 Oakland Raiders 46.7% Denver Broncos 53.3%
Mon 7:30 Seattle Seahawks 47.8% Buffalo Bills 52.2%
Picks of the Week

The week 9 game of the week (4-3-1) as picked by me is the Broncos playing in Oakland on Sunday Night. Both teams are now 6-2 and the winner of this game will take sole possession of the AFC West lead… for now. I am a diehard Broncos fan so I will abstain from picking this game. All I can say is I think it will be close.

Lock of the week (6-2)- Cowboys over the Browns. If Alex Smith was playing than it would be the Chiefs over the Jaguars, which still looks like a lock. Cowboys 27 Browns 16

Upset of the week (1-6-1)- Giants over Eagles, no real reason why other than this seems like typical NFC East upset game. Giants 21 Eagles 18

Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting better. The current 13.7 game spread is worrisome at 13.6% off, but should improve as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I have begun monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (Post Week 6 results – expected 18.6, actual 17, 5.5%). My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault-so far this is holding up.

W L T %
81+% 13 5 0 72.2%
61-80% 38 31 1 55.0%
51-60% 17 14 1 54.7%
                68                 50                   2 57.5%
Expected Right          81.70 11.6%
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