Week 10 NFL Preview

Posted: November 9, 2016 in NFL
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Baltimore Ravens 77.6% Cleveland Browns 22.4%
Sun 12:00 Carolina Panthers 37.6% Kansas City Chiefs 62.4%
Sun 12:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 34.6% Houston Texans 65.4%
Sun 12:00 New Orleans Saints 53.0% Denver Broncos 47.0%
Sun 12:00 New York Jets 51.9% Los Angeles Rams 48.1%
Sun 12:00 Philadelphia Eagles 47.2% Atlanta Falcons 52.8%
Sun 12:00 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 50.6% Chicago Bears 49.4%
Sun 12:00 Tennessee Titans 37.0% Green Bay Packers 63.0%
Sun 12:00 Washington Redskins 65.7% Minnesota Vikings 34.3%
Sun 3:05 San Diego Chargers 75.2% Miami Dolphins 24.8%
Sun 3:25 Arizona Cardinals 86.3% San Francisco 49ers 13.7%
Sun 3:25 Pittsburgh Steelers 18.6% Dallas Cowboys 81.4%
Sun 7:30 New England Patriots 74.3% Seattle Seahawks 25.7%
Mon 7:30 New York Giants 63.0% Cincinnati Bengals 37.0%


Picks of the Week

The week 9 game of the week (4-3-1) as picked by me is the Seahawks and Patriots in a Super Bowl XLIX rematch. A game that should be close and entertaining the whole way through. I like the Patriots at home in this one. New England 31 Seattle 23

Lock of the week (7-2)-Since I was asked not to pick against the Browns anymore… I will go with the Arizona Cardinals over the San Francisco 49ers. Cardinals 38 49ers 14

Upset of the week (2-6-1)- A lot of close games this week, but i will take the Panthers as an upset pick over the Chiefs. Panthers 21 Chiefs 13


Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting better. The current 16.8 game spread is worrisome at 12.7% off, but should improve as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I have begun monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (Post Week 6 results – expected 27.7, actual 23, 11.4%). My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault-so far this is holding up.

W L T %
81+% 16 5 0 76.2%
61-80% 41 35 1 53.9%
51-60% 17 18 1 48.6%
              74               58                 2 56.0%
Expected Right         90.83 12.7%

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