Week 11 NFL Preview

Posted: November 16, 2016 in NFL
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Carolina Panthers 44.3% New Orleans Saints 55.7%
Sun 12:00 Cincinnati Bengals 43.5% Buffalo Bills 56.5%
Sun 12:00 Cleveland Browns 18.6% Pittsburgh Steelers 81.4%
Sun 12:00 Dallas Cowboys 83.6% Baltimore Ravens 16.4%
Sun 12:00 Detroit Lions 74.9% Jacksonville Jaguars 25.1%
Sun 12:00 Indianapolis Colts 50.5% Tennessee Titans 49.5%
Sun 12:00 Kansas City Chiefs 72.4% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27.6%
Sun 12:00 Minnesota Vikings 52.4% Arizona Cardinals 47.6%
Sun 12:00 New York Giants 75.3% Chicago Bears 24.7%
Sun 3:05 Los Angeles Rams 42.9% Miami Dolphins 57.1%
Sun 3:25 San Francisco 49ers 14.8% New England Patriots 85.2%
Sun 3:25 Seattle Seahawks 54.3% Philadelphia Eagles 45.7%
Sun 7:30 Washington Redskins 68.9% Green Bay Packers 31.1%
Mon 7:30 Oakland Raiders 71.2% Houston Texans 28.8%
Picks of the Week

The week 11 game of the week (4-4-1) as picked by me is the Cardinals and Vikings. These two teams are both semi-struggling as of late and given the surge of the NFC East, this could become a pivotal matchup in determining who makes the playoffs. The Cardinals haven’t looked as bad of the Vikings recently, and that is why I will take Arizona. Cardinals 22 Vikings 17

Lock of the week (8-2)- Cowboys over Ravens, I am finally picking the Cowboys. Which means they probably will lose. Whatever. Cowboys 24 Ravens 13

Upset of the week (2-7-1)- Packers over Redskins because Christine Michael will somehow solve every single problem with the Packers and they will win out. Packers 42 Redskins 12


Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting better. The current 17.5 game spread is worrisome at 12.4% off, but should improve as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I have begun monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (Post Week 6 results – expected 36.9, actual 31, 14.4%). My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault.

W L T %
81+% 18 5 0 78.3%
61-80% 46 38 1 54.7%
51-60% 18 21 1 46.3%
             82        64              2 56.1%
Expected Right     100.05 12.4%  `

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