Week 12 NFL Preview

Posted: November 23, 2016 in NFL

Happy Thanksgiving everybody. Here we go.

Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 11:30a Detroit Lions 53.9% Minnesota Vikings 46.1%
Thu 3:30 Dallas Cowboys 70.7% Washington Redskins 29.3%
Thu 7:30 Indianapolis Colts 49.7% Pittsburgh Steelers 50.3%
Sun 12:00 Chicago Bears 39.2% Tennessee Titans 60.8%
Sun 12:00 Buffalo Bills 84.0% Jacksonville Jaguars 16.0%
Sun 12:00 Baltimore Ravens 54.9% Cincinnati Bengals 45.1%
Sun 12:00 Atlanta Falcons 71.7% Arizona Cardinals 28.3%
Sun 12:00 Cleveland Browns 20.0% New York Giants 80.0%
Sun 12:00 New Orleans Saints 72.4% Los Angeles Rams 27.6%
Sun 12:00 Miami Dolphins 79.8% San Francisco 49ers 20.2%
Sun 12:00 Houston Texans 41.7% San Diego Chargers 58.3%
Sun 3:05 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34.5% Seattle Seahawks 65.5%
Sun 3:25 Oakland Raiders 70.8% Carolina Panthers 29.2%
Sun 3:25 New York Jets 20.3% New England Patriots 79.7%
Sun 7:30 Denver Broncos 56.9% Kansas City Chiefs 43.1%
Mon 7:30 Philadelphia Eagles 74.5% Green Bay Packers 25.5%
Picks of the Week

The week 12 game of the week (4-5-1) as chosen by me is a Turkey Day showdown between the Cowboys and Redskins. The Cowboys have looked near unstoppable but are playing against a pretty good Washington team. I also think it is fun that the Cowboys and Redskins are playing on Thanksgiving day. I expect the Cowboys to win this game, especially at home. Cowboys 31 Washington 28

Lock of the week (9-2)- Bills over Jaguars. Still can’t believe Gus Bradley still has a head coaching job for the Jaguars. Bills 31 Jaguars 17

Upset of the week (2-8-1)- Clearly not good at picking these games but let’s go with the Panthers beating the Raiders in Oakland… Why not right? Panthers 31 Raiders 27


Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting better. The current 15.4 game spread is stronger at 9.7% off, but should improve as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I have begun monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (Post Week 6 results – expected 46.3, actual 43, 4.8%). My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that is been pretty accurate.

W L T %
81+% 21 5 0 80.8%
61-80% 50 39 1 56.1%
51-60% 23 22 1 51.1%
             94        66              2 58.6%
Expected Right     109.44 9.7%

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