Week 13 NFL Preview

Posted: November 30, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Minnesota Vikings 23.9% Dallas Cowboys 76.1%
Sun 12:00 Atlanta Falcons 60.6% Kansas City Chiefs 39.4%
Sun 12:00 Baltimore Ravens 55.9% Miami Dolphins 44.1%
Sun 12:00 Chicago Bears 62.4% San Francisco 49ers 37.6%
Sun 12:00 Cincinnati Bengals 48.2% Philadelphia Eagles 51.8%
Sun 12:00 Green Bay Packers 63.8% Houston Texans 36.2%
Sun 12:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 23.5% Denver Broncos 76.5%
Sun 12:00 New England Patriots 83.2% Los Angeles Rams 16.8%
Sun 12:00 New Orleans Saints 66.9% Detroit Lions 33.1%
Sun 3:05 Oakland Raiders 64.1% Buffalo Bills 35.9%
Sun 3:25 Arizona Cardinals 28.5% Washington Redskins 71.5%
Sun 3:25 Pittsburgh Steelers 63.9% New York Giants 36.1%
Sun 3:25 San Diego Chargers 57.3% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 42.7%
Sun 7:30 Seattle Seahawks 68.0% Carolina Panthers 32.0%
Mon 7:30 New York Jets 46.4% Indianapolis Colts 53.6%
Picks of the Week

The week 12 game of the week (5-5-1) is the Pittsburgh Steelers playing host to the New York Giants. The Giants are now an unbelievable 8-3 after a 6 game win streak and now face a Steelers team that is 6-5 and outside of the playoff picture. Both teams are playing for a Wild Card spot down the stretch, although the Steelers can probably catch the Ravens for the division crown. This game means more for the Steelers than it does the Giants and they are home, so I will take the Steelers. Steelers 27 Giants 21

Lock of the week (10-2)- Patriots over the Rams. Rams gave up 49 points to the Saints last week and now travel to New England to play Brady. It’s that simple. Patriots 38 Rams 17

Upset of the week (2-9-1)- Clearly not good at picking these games but let’s go with the Chiefs over Falcons. I don’t really think it will happen but is probably the best option.

 Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 13.3 game spread is stronger at just 7.5% off, and should continue its improvent as the season continues and more data becomes available. After week 6, I have begun monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (Post Week 6 results – expected 57.1, actual 56, 1.3%). My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate.

W L T %
81+% 22 5 0 81.5%
61-80% 58 41 1 58.5%
51-60% 27 23 1 53.9%
          107          69              2 60.7%
Expected Right     120.29 7.5%
Clinching Scenarios

The first opportunity to clinch a playoff berth is this week with the Dallas Cowboys. I will begin to provide probabilities of teams clinching the playoffs given certain scenarios on a weekly basis.

Dallas can clinch a playoff berth with.. (overall chance = 65.3%)

  1. Dallas Win + Tampa Bay Loss/Tie = 43.6%
  2. Dallas Win + Washington Loss = 21.7%
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