Archive for December, 2016

Week 17 NFL Preview

Posted: December 31, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Sun 12:00 Cincinnati Bengals 48.0% Baltimore Ravens 52.0%
Sun 12:00 Indianapolis Colts 68.8% Jacksonville Jaguars 31.2%
Sun 12:00 Miami Dolphins 30.2% New England Patriots 69.8%
Sun 12:00 Minnesota Vikings 66.6% Chicago Bears 33.4%
Sun 12:00 New York Jets 28.1% Buffalo Bills 71.9%
Sun 12:00 Philadelphia Eagles 31.0% Dallas Cowboys 69.0%
Sun 12:00 Pittsburgh Steelers 91.5% Cleveland Browns 8.5%
Sun 12:00 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 63.1% Carolina Panthers 36.9%
Sun 12:00 Tennessee Titans 60.7% Houston Texans 39.3%
Sun 3:25 Atlanta Falcons 74.3% New Orleans Saints 25.7%
Sun 3:25 Denver Broncos 41.9% Oakland Raiders 58.1%
Sun 3:25 Los Angeles Rams 33.0% Arizona Cardinals 67.0%
Sun 3:25 San Diego Chargers 32.7% Kansas City Chiefs 67.3%
Sun 3:25 San Francisco 49ers 17.9% Seattle Seahawks 82.1%
Sun 3:25 Washington Redskins 58.4% New York Giants 41.6%
Sun 7:30 Detroit Lions 38.4% Green Bay Packers 61.6%
Picks of the Week

The week 17 game of the week (8-5-1) is Lions versus Packers on Sunday Night for the NFC North crown. A game that will ultimately decide who is in and who is out for the playoffs happens late on Sunday Night. I like the Packers, a lot, in this one. Packers 34 Lions 21

Lock of the week (14-2)- Falcons are really good and they lock up the 2 seed against the Saints. Falcons 38 Saints 21

Upset of the week (4-11-1)- Bears over Vikings. Oh, how have the Vikings have fallen. Bears 21 Vikings 14

 Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 12.6 game spread is down to just 5.3% off, and hopefully can continue its improvement through the rest of the season. I began monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (post week 6). Thus far, post Week 6 results look like this:

Expected 98.4, actual 98, 5.3% off. (66.2% of games picked correctly)

My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate-I will look to improve preseason ranking system in hopes to have more success throughout the entire season.

W L T %
81+% 28 6 0 82.4%
61-80% 81 53 1 60.4%
51-60% 40 31 1 56.3%
          149      90              2 62.2%
Expected Right     161.59 5.3%
    (12.6)
Clinching Scenarios

New England Patriots

Patriots clinch home-field advantage in the AFC with: (77.8%)

  1. New England Win/Tie OR (69.8%)
  2. Oakland Loss/Tie (41.9%)

Oakland Raiders

Raiders clinch AFC West title and a first-round bye with: (71.8%)

  1. Oakland Win/Tie OR (58.1%)
  2. Kansas City Loss/Tie (32.7%)

Raiders clinch home-field advantage in the AFC with: (17.6%)

  1. Oakland Win + New England Loss (17.6%)

Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs clinch AFC West title and a first-round bye with: (28.2%)

  1. Kansas City Wins + Oakland Loss (28.2%)

Miami Dolphins

Miami clinches No. 5 seed with: (9.9%)

  1. Miami Win + Kansas City Loss (9.9%)

Atlanta Falcons

Falcons clinch first-round bye with: (77.2%)

  1. Atlanta Win OR (74.3%)
  2. Atlanta Tie OR Seattle Loss/Tie OR (0.1%)
  3. Seattle Loss + Detroit Loss/Tie OR (11.1%)
  4. Seattle Tie + Detroit Loss (0.3%)

Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks clinch a first-round bye with: (21.1%)

  1. Seattle Win + Atlanta Loss/Tie OR (21.1%)
  2. Seattle Tie + Atlanta Loss + Green Bay/Detroit Tie (0.001%)

Detroit Lions

Detroit clinches the NFC North with: (38.4%)

  1. Detroit Win (38.4%)

Detroit clinches a first-round bye with: (1.8%)

  1. Detroit Win + Seattle Loss/Tie + Atlanta Loss (1.8%)

Detroit clinches a playoff berth with: (41.9%)

  1. Detroit Tie OR (0.005%)
  2. Washington Loss/Tie (41.6%)

Green Bay Packers

Packers clinch NFC North with: (61.6%)

  1. Green Bay Win/Tie (61.6%)

Packers clinch a playoff berth with: (42.0%)

  1. Washington Loss OR (41.6%)
  2. Washington Tie + Tampa Bay Win + Green Bay clinching at least a tie in strength of victory over Tampa Bay (Green Bay clinches at least a tie in SOV tiebreaker if any of the following teams win/tie: Seattle, Houston, Jacksonville and Philadelphia) (0.006%)

Washington Redskins

Washington clinches a playoff berth with: (57.8%)

  1. Washington Win + Green Bay/Detroit does not end in tie OR (57.8%)
  2. Washington Tie + Green Bay Loss + Tampa Bay Loss/Tie (0.1%)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay clinches a playoff berth with: (0.006%)

  1. Tampa Bay Win + Washington Tie + Green Bay Loss + Tennessee Win + Indianapolis Win + Dallas Win + San Francisco Win (0.006%)

 

 

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Week 8 Mid-Major 15

Posted: December 28, 2016 in NCAA

The Mid Major 15 is a ranking of the top 15 mid-major teams in the country. Conferences excluded from these rankings are the power-7: ACC, American, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. The teams that appear on this list are likely good names to know when searching for Cinderella come March. Although, St. Mary’s and Gonzaga will likely be top seeds in March.

The WCC powers have held the top 2 spots in this ranking every week of its existence and I really don’t believe things will ever change that. Monmouth slides up 1 spot to #3 as former #3 Middle Tennessee dropped all the way out of the top 15 after back to back losses against VCU (Away) and Georgia State (Home). UT Arlington goes from unranked to #4 and is now on a 7 game win streak with the last 6 coming on the road. During this streak they have picked up double-digit wins over Texas and Saint Mary’s. Dayton is back into the top 5 after a solid outing against VMI. Other new entrants to the MM15 are IPFW and San Diego State, while Middle Tennessee, Nevada and New Mexico State all exited the ranking.

Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 92.4% 12 28 – 2 16 – 2 1
2 Saint Mary’s WCC 85.2% 10 24 – 5 14 – 4 2
3 Monmouth MAAC 79.8% 10 24 – 7 16 – 6 4 +1
4 UT Arlington SB 77.7% 8 22 – 7 14 – 4 NR
5 Dayton A10 77.1% 8 20 – 9 12 – 6 10 +5
6 UNC Wilmington CAA 77.0% 9 23 – 7 13 – 5 5 -1
7 Loyola Chicago MVC 76.5% 8 21 – 8 13 – 5 6 -1
8 VCU A10 76.3% 10 22 – 9 12 – 6 7 -1
9 IPFW Sum 75.8% 8 20 – 7 12 – 4 NR
10 Princeton Ivy 75.5% 4 16 – 10 10 – 4 9 -1
11 San Diego St. MWC 75.4% 7 19 – 10 12 – 6 NR
12 Rhode Island A10 74.8% 8 19 – 11 11 – 7 11 -1
13 BYU WCC 74.4% 9 20 – 11 11 – 7 12 -1
14 George Mason A10 73.3% 9 20 – 10 11 – 7 8 -6
15 Wichita St. MVC 73.1% 9 21 – 9 12 – 6 14 -1

Dropped Out: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, New Mexico St.

Week 17 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: December 26, 2016 in NFL

The Patriots, Cowboys and Falcons are all knotted up as only 0.3 points separates the three teams from 1 to 3. Steelers and Chiefs round out the top 5. The playoff picture looks like a 3 headed race between the Redskins, Lions and Packers for the final 2 spots. The Buccaneers would need miracle to make playoffs, more on that later this week. Otherwise here are the rankings…

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Make Playoffs Miss Playoffs Make SB Win SB Prev. Movement
1 New England Patriots 73.4% 13.7 Clinched 39.5% 31.1%            1                    –
2 Dallas Cowboys 73.1% 13.7 Clinched 64.5% 31.0%            3                     1
3 Atlanta Falcons 73.1% 10.8 Clinched 12.0% 3.0%            2                   (1)
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 67.1% 10.9 Clinched 8.3% 3.4%            4                    –
5 Kansas City Chiefs 66.1% 11.7 Clinched 16.0% 7.7%            6                     1
6 Oakland Raiders 64.6% 12.6 Clinched 29.2% 16.4%            5                   (1)
7 Washington Redskins 60.9% 9.1 60.3% 39.7% 1.8% <1%         10                     3
8 Seattle Seahawks 59.0% 10.3 Clinched 4.3% <1%            7                   (1)
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 58.9% 8.4 <1% >99% <1% <1%            8                   (1)
10 Green Bay Packers 58.5% 9.6 75.7% 24.3% 4.0% <1%         13                     3
11 Baltimore Ravens 58.5% 8.5 Eliminated         11                    –
12 New York Giants 57.6% 10.4 Clinched 8.5% 2.0%            9                   (3)
13 New Orleans Saints 53.5% 7.2 Eliminated         17                     4
14 Buffalo Bills 52.0% 7.7 Eliminated         18                     4
15 Denver Broncos 51.8% 8.4 Eliminated         12                   (3)
16 Cincinnati Bengals 51.5% 6.0 Eliminated         19                     3
17 Indianapolis Colts 51.1% 7.7 Eliminated         15                   (2)
18 Carolina Panthers 50.6% 6.4 Eliminated         16                   (2)
19 Philadelphia Eagles 50.0% 6.3 Eliminated         23                     4
20 Miami Dolphins 49.4% 10.3 Clinched 4.7% 1.8%         22                     2
21 Tennessee Titans 47.1% 8.6 Eliminated         14                   (7)
22 Arizona Cardinals 45.7% 7.2 Eliminated         25                     3
23 Minnesota Vikings 45.3% 7.7 Eliminated         21                   (2)
24 San Diego Chargers 43.7% 5.3 Eliminated         20                   (4)
25 Detroit Lions 41.8% 9.4 64.0% 36.0% 3.7% <1%         24                   (1)
26 Houston Texans 41.4% 9.4 Clinched 2.2% <1%         26                    –
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 36.7% 3.3 Eliminated         28                     1
28 Chicago Bears 33.6% 3.3 Eliminated         27                   (1)
29 New York Jets 25.8% 4.3 Eliminated         29                    –
30 Los Angeles Rams 25.3% 4.3 Eliminated         30                    –
31 San Francisco 49ers 20.5% 2.2 Eliminated         31                    –
32 Cleveland Browns 18.9% 1.1 Eliminated         32                    –

Week 8 College Basketball Top 25

Posted: December 26, 2016 in NCAA
Top 25
Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Villanova BE 96.4% 12 29 – 2 16 – 2 2 1
2 Kansas B12 96.0% 11 26 – 5 14 – 4 1 -1
3 Baylor B12 93.7% 11 24 – 6 12 – 6 11 8
4 West Virginia B12 93.1% 11 24 – 7 12 – 6 8 4
5 UCLA P12 92.9% 13 28 – 3 15 – 3 3 -2
6 Gonzaga WCC 92.4% 12 28 – 2 16 – 2 5 -1
7 Duke ACC 92.3% 12 25 – 6 13 – 5 4 -3
8 Texas Tech B12 90.3% 11 22 – 9 10 – 8 9 1
9 Kansas St. B12 90.2% 11 22 – 9 10 – 8 6 -3
10 Purdue B10 90.1% 11 24 – 7 13 – 5 15 5
11 Indiana B10 88.4% 10 23 – 8 12 – 6 19 8
12 Wisconsin B10 87.7% 11 23 – 8 12 – 6 16 4
13 Creighton BE 87.0% 12 23 – 6 12 – 7 14 1
14 Louisville ACC 87.0% 11 23 – 8 11 – 7 7 -7
15 Kentucky SEC 86.9% 10 23 – 8 13 – 5 10 -5
16 Florida St. ACC 86.8% 12 23 – 8 11 – 7 13 -3
17 Virginia ACC 86.6% 10 21 – 9 11 – 7 12 -5
18 Saint Mary’s WCC 85.2% 10 24 – 5 14 – 4 18 0
19 Virginia Tech ACC 84.8% 10 21 – 9 11 – 7 28 9
20 Oklahoma St. B12 84.7% 9 18 – 12 8 – 10 33 13
21 Butler BE 84.7% 11 22 – 8 11 – 7 20 -1
22 Oregon P12 84.5% 10 22 – 8 12 – 6 26 4
23 North Carolina ACC 84.3% 10 21 – 10 10 – 8 21 -2
24 Arizona P12 83.3% 11 23 – 8 12 – 6 30 6
25 USC P12 83.1% 13 24 – 7 11 – 7 24 -1

Dropped Out: Cincinnati, Monmouth, South Carolina, Middle Tennessee

I hope everyone had a great holiday season! Here is the updated top 25, late due to holiday traveling but here nonetheless. Villanova retook the #1 spot from Kansas and Baylor and West Virginia both jumped into the top 5. Purdue, Indiana and Wisconsin all rose after some strong performances leading into conference play. New entrants to the top 25 are Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Oregon and Arizona, not much else to say, have to get tonight’s NFL Rankings ready. You can check how all teams are ranked here.

Larger risers in entire 351 team rankings: Troy (+96), San Diego (+77), Mississippi St. (+74), Drexel (+65)

Largest fallers in entire 351 team rankings: Arkansas St. (-72), Jacksonville (-70), Arkansas Little Rock (-63)

Week 16 NFL Preview

Posted: December 21, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Philadelphia Eagles 41.7% New York Giants 58.3%
Sat 12:00 Buffalo Bills 60.2% Miami Dolphins 39.8%
Sat 12:00 Carolina Panthers 37.1% Atlanta Falcons 62.9%
Sat 12:00 Chicago Bears 36.0% Washington Redskins 64.0%
Sat 12:00 Cleveland Browns 17.0% San Diego Chargers 83.0%
Sat 12:00 Green Bay Packers 62.7% Minnesota Vikings 37.3%
Sat 12:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 30.1% Tennessee Titans 69.9%
Sat 12:00 New England Patriots 88.6% New York Jets 11.4%
Sat 3:05 Oakland Raiders 65.5% Indianapolis Colts 34.5%
Sat 3:25 Los Angeles Rams 67.0% San Francisco 49ers 33.0%
Sat 3:25 New Orleans Saints 46.4% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 53.6%
Sat 3:25 Seattle Seahawks 72.8% Arizona Cardinals 27.2%
Sat 7:25 Houston Texans 41.8% Cincinnati Bengals 58.2%
Sun 3:30 Pittsburgh Steelers 64.5% Baltimore Ravens 35.5%
Sun 7:30 Kansas City Chiefs 61.4% Denver Broncos 38.6%
Mon 7:30 Dallas Cowboys 76.9% Detroit Lions 23.1%
 Picks of the Week

The week 16 game of the week (7-5-1) is the Ravens traveling to Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. Divisional rivalry game that often gets heated on a holiday where everyone is ‘Merry?’ I would watch that 100 times out of 100 opportunities. Throw in the fact that the winner will likely win the division and it becomes absolute must-watch television. Hope you can get your new TV setup for this one! I will take the Steelers in this one. Steelers 21 Ravens 17

Lock of the week (13-2)- Packers over the Vikings, two teams trending in different directions, Packers/Rodgers at home in December cannot be denied. Packers 28 Vikings 13

Upset of the week (3-11-1)- Texans over the Bengals, with Savage at QB the Texans become a lot less predictable to my statistics, but I think Savage plays well here and Texans get a key win down the playoff stretch.

 Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 9.9 game spread is down to just 4.4% off, and hopefully can continue its improvement through the rest of the season. I began monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (post week 6). Thus far, post Week 6 results look like this:

Expected 87.7, actual 90, 1.7% off. (68.2% of games picked correctly)

My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate-I will look to improve preseason ranking system in hopes to have more success throughout the entire season.

W L T %
81+% 27 5 0 84.4%
61-80% 74 50 1 59.6%
51-60% 40 27 1 59.6%
          141          82              2 63.1%
Expected Right     150.89 4.4%

Clinching Scenarios

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas clinches home-field advantage and NFC Eeast Title with: (86.5%)

  1. Dallas Win/Tie OR (76.9%)
  2. New York Giants Loss/Tie (41.7%)

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle clinches a first-round bye with: (20.8%)

  1. Seattle Win + Detroit Loss + Atlanta Loss/Tie (20.8%)

New York Giants

New York Giants clinches a playoff berth with: (98.0%)

  1. NY Giants Win/Tie OR (58.3%)
  2. Detroit Loss/Tie OR (76.9%)
  3. Green Bay Loss/Tie OR (37.3%)
  4. Tampa Bay Loss/Tie OR (46.4%)
  5. Atlanta Loss (37.1%)

Detroit Lions

Detroit clinches NFC North title with: (8.8%)

  1. Detroit Win + Green Bay Loss/Tie OR (8.6%)
  2. Detroit Tie + GB Loss/Tie (0.2%)

Detroit clinches a playoff berth with: (20.3%)

  1. Detroit Win + Tampa Bay Loss/Tie OR (10.7%)
  2. Detroit Tie + Tampa Bay Loss OR (0.2%)
  3. Detroit Tie + Tampa Bay Tie + Atlanta Win OR (0.002%)
  4. Washington Loss/Tie + Tampa Bay Loss + Atlanta Win/Tie (10.5%)

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta clinches NFC South title with: (29.3%)

  1. Atlanta win + Tampa Bay Loss/Tie (29.2%)
  2. Atlanta Tie + Tampa Bay Loss (0.2%)

Atlanta clinches a playoff berth with: (72.9%)

  1. Atlanta win + Atlanta clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DET OR (idk, approximate 31.5%)
  2. Atlanta Win/Tie + Green Bay Loss/Tie OR (23.5%)
  3. Atlanta Win + Detroit Loss/Tie OR (48.4%)
  4. Atlanta Tie + Detroit Tie OR (0.003%)
  5. Washington Loss/Tie + Green Bay Loss OR (13.4%)
  6. Washington Loss/Tie + Green Bay Tie + Detroit Loss (0.1%)

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay clinches a playoff berth with: (3.3%)

  1. Green Bay Win + Washington Loss/Tie + Tampa Bay Loss + Atlanta Win/Tie + Green Bay clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over Tampa Bay (idk, approximate 3.3%)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay clinches a playoff berth with: (5.6%)

  1. Tampa Bay Win + Green Bay Loss + Detroit Loss + Washington Loss OR (5.5%)
  2. Tampa Bay Win + Green Bay Loss + Detroit Loss + Washington Tie + TB Clinches of strength of victory tiebreaker over Detroit (idk, aprroximate .04%)

New England Patriots

New England clinches home-field advantage with: (30.7%)

  1. New England Win + Oakland Loss/Tie OR (30.6%)
  2. New England Tie + Oakland Loss (0.2%)

Oakland Raiders

Oakland clinches AFC West title and a first round bye with: (25.4%)

  1. Oakland Win + Kansas City Loss/Tie OR (25.3%)
  2. Oakland Tie + Kansas City Loss (0.2%)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North title with: (64.5%)

  1. Pittsburgh Win (64.5%)

Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City clinches a playoff berth with: (86.3%)

  1. Kansas City Win/Tie OR (61.4%)
  2. Baltimore Loss/Tie (64.5%)

Houston Texans

Houston clinches the AFC South title with: (12.6%)

  1. Houston Win + Tennessee Loss (12.6%)

Miami Dolphins

Miami clinches a playoff berth with: (15.5%)

  1. Miami win + Denver Loss/Tie (15.4%)
  2. Miami Tie + Baltimore Loss + Denver Loss + Houston Loss/Tie OR (0.1%)
  3. Miami Tie + Baltimore Loss + Denver Loss + Tennessee Loss/Tie (0.1%)

Week 7 Mid Major 15

Posted: December 21, 2016 in NCAA

The Mid Major 15 is a ranking of the top 15 mid-major teams in the country. Conferences excluded from these rankings are the power-7: ACC, American, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. The teams that appear on this list are likely good names to know when searching for Cinderella come March. Although, St. Mary’s and Gonzaga will likely be top seeds in March.

The WCC powers held the top 2 spots and have been the only constant in the rankings thus far. Middle Tennessee, Monmouth and UNC Wilmington round out the rest of the top 5. Loyola Chicago enters the ranking all the way up at #6 despite losing to Toledo yesterday, their performance in the games prior had been spectacular. New Mexico State joins Loyola as the only new teams in the ranking as Oakland and San Diego State dropped out of the top 15.

Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 91.3% 11 27 – 3 15 – 3 1
2 Saint Mary’s WCC 87.3% 9 24 – 5 14 – 4 2
3 Middle Tennessee CUSA 84.1% 9 25 – 5 15 – 3 12 +9
4 Monmouth MAAC 80.1% 10 24 – 7 16 – 6 3 -1
5 UNC Wilmington CAA 77.6% 9 23 – 7 13 – 5 14 +9
6 Loyola Chicago MVC 76.8% 8 21 – 8 13 – 5 NR
7 VCU A10 76.4% 8 21 – 10 12 – 6 7
8 George Mason A10 75.6% 8 21 – 9 12 – 6 6 -2
9 Princeton Ivy 75.4% 3 16 – 10 10 – 4 9
10 Dayton A10 75.1% 6 19 – 10 11 – 7 5 -5
11 Rhode Island A10 74.8% 7 19 – 11 11 – 7 10 -1
12 BYU WCC 74.4% 8 20 – 11 11 – 7 11 -1
13 Nevada MWC 74.2% 9 23 – 8 12 – 6 13 0
14 Wichita St. MVC 73.1% 8 21 – 9 12 – 6 4 -10
15 New Mexico St. WAC 73.1% 10 22 – 5 11 – 3 NR

Dropped Out: Oakland, San Diego St.

Week 16 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: December 20, 2016 in NFL

The playoff picture is starting to become clearer with just 2 weeks left to the regular seasons. 10 teams have been eliminated, and 4 teams have clinched thus far.

The Patriots took over the top spot after an impressive win in Denver and the former #1 Cowboys dropped to 3. The Falcons remained at 2 after taking care of business at home against the 49ers. The Steelers remained at 4 and the Raiders jumped the Chiefs to move into the top 5. The Colts moved up 7 spots, Giants and Panthers each moved up 4. The Lions and Vikings dropped 9 and 7 spots, respectively. As mentioned last week, there really are no great teams this year so home-field advantage in the playoffs becomes even more important. The Week 16 Preview will feature odds for all clinching scnearios as it has in the past.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Make Playoffs Miss Playoffs Make SB Win SB Prev. Movement
1 New England Patriots 71.0% 13.6 Clinched 42.1% 31.6%            3                     2
2 Atlanta Falcons 70.6% 10.4 87.4% 12.6% 8.1% 2.3%            2                    –
3 Dallas Cowboys 69.8% 13.4 Clinched 55.7% 29.8%            1                   (2)
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 66.2% 10.6 79.8% 20.2% 7.2% 2.8%            4                    –
5 Oakland Raiders 64.5% 12.2 Clinched 26.2% 13.8%            6                     1
6 Kansas City Chiefs 62.7% 11.2 83.4% 16.6% 12.9% 5.7%            5                   (1)
7 Seattle Seahawks 61.4% 11.1 Clinched 9.7% 2.8%         10                     3
8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 61.1% 9.0 48.4% 51.6% 2.4% <1%            8                    –
9 New York Giants 59.8% 11.0 95.0% 5.0% 15.2% 4.9%         13                     4
10 Washington Redskins 57.0% 8.7 21.9% 78.1% <1% <1%            7                   (3)
11 Baltimore Ravens 56.9% 8.8 36.3% 63.7% 1.5% <1%         11                    –
12 Denver Broncos 56.4% 8.9 37.5% 62.5% 1.5% <1%            9                   (3)
13 Green Bay Packers 55.7% 9.2 55.3% 44.7% 2.8% <1%         12                   (1)
14 Tennessee Titans 54.3% 9.4 55.3% 44.7% 2.4% <1%         17                     3
15 Indianapolis Colts 53.9% 8.1 17.9% 82.1% <1% <1%         22                     7
16 Carolina Panthers 53.6% 6.7 2.2% 97.8% <1% <1%         20                     4
17 New Orleans Saints 52.7% 6.7 2.2% 97.8% <1% <1%         19                     2
18 Buffalo Bills 52.1% 8.3 22.4% 77.6% <1% <1%         21                     3
19 Cincinnati Bengals 51.9% 6.6 Eliminated         16                   (3)
20 San Diego Chargers 50.0% 6.3 Eliminated         18                   (2)
21 Minnesota Vikings 47.7% 8.0 18.3% 81.7% <1% <1%         14                   (7)
22 Miami Dolphins 46.8% 9.7 62.6% 37.4% 3.4% 1.2%         25                     3
23 Philadelphia Eagles 46.6% 5.8 Eliminated         23                    –
24 Detroit Lions 46.0% 9.7 71.7% 28.3% 4.6% 1.2%         15                   (9)
25 Arizona Cardinals 42.1% 6.4 Eliminated         24                   (1)
26 Houston Texans 38.8% 8.7 33.2% 66.8% 1.3% <1%         26                    –
27 Chicago Bears 37.9% 3.7 Eliminated         27                    –
28 Jacksonville Jaguars 29.5% 2.5 Eliminated         29                     1
29 New York Jets 27.7% 4.4 Eliminated         28                   (1)
30 Los Angeles Rams 27.2% 5.1 Eliminated         30                    –
31 San Francisco 49ers 18.4% 1.5 Eliminated         31                    –
32 Cleveland Browns 14.4% 0.2 Eliminated         32                    –

Week 7 College Basketball Top 25

Posted: December 19, 2016 in NCAA
Top 25
Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Kansas B12 96.6% 10 27 – 4 15 – 3 6 5
2 Villanova BE 96.0% 11 29 – 2 16 – 2 1 -1
3 UCLA P12 95.3% 12 29 – 2 16 – 2 2 -1
4 Duke ACC 92.4% 10 25 – 6 13 – 5 3 -1
5 Gonzaga WCC 91.4% 11 28 – 2 16 – 2 5 0
6 Kansas St. B12 91.1% 10 23 – 8 11 – 7 8 2
7 Louisville ACC 90.5% 10 24 – 7 13 – 5 7 0
8 West Virginia B12 89.7% 9 22 – 9 11 – 7 13 5
9 Texas Tech B12 89.7% 10 23 – 8 11 – 7 22 13
10 Kentucky SEC 89.3% 10 25 – 6 14 – 4 4 -6
11 Baylor B12 89.2% 10 22 – 8 10 – 8 20 9
12 Virginia ACC 87.9% 9 21 – 9 12 – 6 17 5
13 Florida St. ACC 87.9% 11 23 – 8 11 – 7 11 -2
14 Creighton BE 87.0% 11 23 – 6 12 – 6 9 -5
15 Purdue B10 86.8% 9 23 – 8 12 – 6 18 3
16 Wisconsin B10 86.2% 10 23 – 8 12 – 6 15 -1
17 Cincinnati Amer 85.8% 9 25 – 6 14 – 4 28 11
18 Saint Mary’s WCC 85.6% 8 24 – 5 14 – 4 19 1
19 Indiana B10 84.9% 8 22 – 9 11 – 7 10 -9
20 Butler BE 84.7% 10 22 – 8 11 – 7 12 -8
21 North Carolina ACC 84.3% 9 21 – 10 10 – 8 14 -7
22 Middle Tennessee CUSA 84.0% 9 25 – 5 15 – 3 48 26
23 South Carolina SEC 82.7% 9 23 – 7 13 – 5 29 6
24 USC P12 82.7% 10 23 – 7 11 – 7 21 -3
25 Monmouth MAAC 82.6% 9 24 – 7 16 – 6 34 9

Dropped Out: Oregon, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Wichita St.
Kansas rose five spots, jumping a herd of teams and taking the #1 spot. Kansas started the season slow but has turned in 9 consecutive elite performances. Villanova, UCLA and Duke all fell one spot, due to Kansas, and Gonzaga remained #5. Kansas State is now all the way up to 6, they haven’t really played anyone noteworthy other than a neutral game against Maryland – their lone loss of the season. However, they have looked very good against inferior opponents, with 8 elite performances in 11 games. Texas Tech is also entering the top 10 is a bit of a surprise, similar to Kansas State, TTU has played a weak schedule thus far but has looked great in those games. Mid-Majors Middle Tennessee and Monmouth, along with power-seven teams Cincinnati and South Carolina, moved into the top 25.

Larger risers in entire 351 team rankings: Canisius (+103), George Mason (+102), Evansville (+92), Arkansas State (+74), IUPUI (+64)

Largest fallers in entire 351 team rankings: UCF (-77), East Carolina (-64), LIU Brooklyn (-60), Temple (-51)

Week 15 NFL Preview

Posted: December 14, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Seattle Seahawks 81.7% Los Angeles Rams 18.3%
Sat 7:25 New York Jets 42.5% Miami Dolphins 57.5%
Sun 12:00 Baltimore Ravens 66.2% Philadelphia Eagles 33.8%
Sun 12:00 Buffalo Bills 86.4% Cleveland Browns 13.6%
Sun 12:00 Chicago Bears 38.3% Green Bay Packers 61.7%
Sun 12:00 Cincinnati Bengals 41.5% Pittsburgh Steelers 58.5%
Sun 12:00 Houston Texans 68.7% Jacksonville Jaguars 31.3%
Sun 12:00 Kansas City Chiefs 68.9% Tennessee Titans 31.1%
Sun 12:00 Minnesota Vikings 61.9% Indianapolis Colts 38.1%
Sun 12:00 New York Giants 57.0% Detroit Lions 43.0%
Sun 3:05 Arizona Cardinals 49.5% New Orleans Saints 50.5%
Sun 3:05 Atlanta Falcons 91.6% San Francisco 49ers 8.4%
Sun 3:25 Denver Broncos 45.1% New England Patriots 54.9%
Sun 3:25 San Diego Chargers 41.1% Oakland Raiders 58.9%
Sun 7:30 Dallas Cowboys 69.0% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31.0%
Mon 7:30 Washington Redskins 68.7% Carolina Panthers 31.3%
 Picks of the Week

The week 12 game of the week (7-5-1) is obviously the Patriots and Broncos with major playoff implications on the line. With a win, the Patriots will move into prime position for the 1 seed, and the Broncos would likely drop out of the playoff picture. Meanwhile a Broncos victory would really make the playoff race interesting over the last 2 weeks as many teams would then be vying for many different spots. I mentioned before I won’t pick Broncos game so I have no pick for this game.

Lock of the week (12-2)- No brainer in the Falcons over the 49ers. Falcons 48 49ers 20

Upset of the week (3-10-1)- Eagles defeat the Ravens. Its a road game but this feels like a trap game to me for the Ravens-who will likely face the Steelers for the division crown on Christmas Day Eagles 24 Ravens 17.

 Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 12.3 game spread is down to just 5.9% off, and hopefully can continue its improvement through the rest of the season. I began monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (post week 6). Thus far, post Week 6 results look like this:

Expected 77.1, actual 77, 0.1% off. (66.4% of games picked correctly)

My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate-I will look to improve preseason ranking system in hopes to have more success throughout the entire season.

W L T %
81+% 24 5 0 82.8%
61-80% 70 47 1 59.7%
51-60% 34 27 1 55.6%
          128          79              2 61.7%
Expected Right     140.27 5.9%
Clinching Scenarios
Dallas Cowboys

Clinch NFC East title and first-round bye with: (29.7%)

  1. DAL Win + NYG Loss/Tie OR (29.6%)
  2. DAL Tie + NYG Loss (0.2%)

Clinches NFC East title and home field advantage with: (0.3%)

  1. DAL Win + NYG/DET Tie (0.3%)

Detroit Lions

Clinches NFC North title with: (16.5%)

  1. DET Win + GB Loss/Tie OR (16.4%)
  2. DET Tie + GB Loss + MIN Loss/Tie (0.1%)

Seattle Seahawks

Clinches NFC West title (90.5%)

  1. SEA Win/Tie OR (81.7%)
  2. ARI Loss/Tie (50.5%)

New York Giants

Clinches a playoff berth with: (2.6%)

  1. NYG Win + WAS Loss + MIN Loss/Tie + GB Loss/Tie (2.6%)

New England Patriots

Clinches AFC East title with: (73.6%)

  1. NE Win/Tie OR (54.9%)
  2. MIA Loss/Tie (42.5%)

Clinches AFC East title and first round bye with: (73.3%)

  1. NE Win/Tie OR (54.9%)
  2. MIA Loss/Tie + PIT Loss/Tie OR (17.6%)
  3. MIA Loss/Tie + KC Win (29.3%)

Kansas City Chiefs

Clinches a playoff berth with: (79.5%)

  1. KC Win OR (68.9%)
  2. KC Tie + MIA Loss OR (0.2%)
  3. KC Tie + DEN Loss/Tie OR (0.2%)
  4. DEN Loss + BAL Loss/Tie OR (18.5%)
  5. DEN Loss + PIT Loss/Tie (18.7%)

Oakland Raiders

Clinches a playoff berth with: (73.1%)

  1. OAK Win OR (58.9%)
  2. OAK Tie + MIA Loss OR (0.2%)
  3. OAK Tie + DEN Loss OR (0.3%)
  4. OAK Tie + MIA Tie + DEN Tie OR (0.000001%)
  5. OAK Tie + MIA Tie + KC Win OR (0.002%)
  6. MIA Loss + PIT Loss/Tie + DEN Loss OR (9.7%)
  7. MIA Loss + PIT Loss/Tie + KC Win/Tie OR (12.2%)
  8. MIA Loss + BAL Loss/Tie + DEN Loss OR (7.9%)
  9. MIA Loss + BAL Loss/Tie + KC Win/Tie OR (9.9%)

Week 6 Mid-Major 15

Posted: December 14, 2016 in NCAA

The Mid Major 15 is a ranking of the top 15 mid-major teams in the country. Conferences excluded from these rankings are the power-7: ACC, American, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. The teams that appear on this list are likely good names to know when searching for Cinderella come March. Although, St. Mary’s and Gonzaga will likely be top seeds in March.

Gonzaga is now the clear #1 after St. Mary’s lost to UT Arlington at home. However, St. Mary’s loss didn’t hurt them enough to drop below the 2nd spot. Monmouth, winners of 8 straight, moves to #3 after an impressive road win at Memphis. Wichita State and Dayton round out the top 5. George Mason is now ranked 6 after not being ranked last week. They got off to a very bad start to the season, losing their first 3 games, but has one every game since including wins at Northern Iowa and at Penn State. They play #7 VCU on 12/30 so we can see just how far they have come then. George Mason, Nevada and UNC Wilmington all move into the top 15, with Ohio, Chattanooga and Valparaiso moving out.

Rank Team Conf POWER Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 91.5% 27 – 3 16 – 2 2 +1
2 Saint Mary’s WCC 84.2% 23 – 6 14 – 4 1 -1
3 Monmouth MAAC 82.8% 24 – 7 16 – 6 7 +4
4 Wichita St. MVC 82.3% 24 – 6 14 – 4 3 -1
5 Dayton A10 77.4% 20 – 9 12 – 6 5 0
6 George Mason A10 76.6% 21 – 9 12 – 6 NR
7 VCU A10 76.4% 21 – 10 12 – 6 4 -3
8 Oakland Horz 75.4% 23 – 6 14 – 4 12 +4
9 Princeton Ivy 75.0% 17 – 9 10 – 4 8 -1
10 Rhode Island A10 74.8% 19 – 11 11 – 7 6 -4
11 BYU WCC 74.6% 21 – 10 12 – 6 9 -2
12 Middle Tennessee CUSA 74.5% 23 – 7 13 – 5 10 -2
13 Nevada MWC 72.5% 22 – 9 12 – 6 NR
14 UNC Wilmington CAA 72.4% 22 – 8 12 – 6 NR
15 San Diego St. MWC 72.3% 16 – 11 12 – 6 11 -4

Dropped Out: Ohio, Chattanooga, Valparaiso