Week 14 NFL Preview

Posted: December 8, 2016 in NFL
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Kansas City Chiefs 50.5% Oakland Raiders 49.5%
Sun 12:00 Buffalo Bills 41.5% Pittsburgh Steelers 58.5%
Sun 12:00 Carolina Panthers 42.3% San Diego Chargers 57.7%
Sun 12:00 Cleveland Browns 17.2% Cincinnati Bengals 82.8%
Sun 12:00 Detroit Lions 72.1% Chicago Bears 27.9%
Sun 12:00 Indianapolis Colts 68.7% Houston Texans 31.3%
Sun 12:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 31.6% Minnesota Vikings 68.4%
Sun 12:00 Miami Dolphins 51.6% Arizona Cardinals 48.4%
Sun 12:00 Philadelphia Eagles 41.0% Washington Redskins 59.0%
Sun 12:00 Tennessee Titans 42.9% Denver Broncos 57.1%
Sun 3:05 San Francisco 49ers 43.9% New York Jets 56.1%
Sun 3:25 Green Bay Packers 36.9% Seattle Seahawks 63.1%
Sun 3:25 Los Angeles Rams 23.5% Atlanta Falcons 76.5%
Sun 3:25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 62.5% New Orleans Saints 37.5%
Sun 7:30 New York Giants 27.7% Dallas Cowboys 72.3%
Mon 7:30 New England Patriots 66.0% Baltimore Ravens 34.0%
 Picks of the Week

The week 12 game of the week (6-5-1) was very hard to choose from as there are many good games this week. I will go with the Chiefs hosting the Raiders on Thursday Night. The Chiefs went into Oakland and picked apart the Raiders in these teams first meetings. I expect a very good game tonight that truly comes down to the wire and I think the Chiefs complete the season sweep of the Raiders. Chiefs 27 Raiders 24

Lock of the week (11-2)- Going to go with the Patriots over the Ravens. These are two pretty good teams but I don’t think the Ravens offense will be able to keep pace with the Patriots. The Pats will get their points, even against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Patriots 24 Ravens 14

Upset of the week (3-9-1)- 49ers upset the Jets because when two teams are this bad, anything can happen. 49ers 21 Jets 17


Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 13.0 game spread is down to just 6.8% off, and hopefully can continue its improvement through the rest of the season. I began monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (post week 6). Thus far, post Week 6 results look like this:

expected 66.9, actual 66, 0.9% off. (66% of games picked correctly)

My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate-I will look to improve preseason ranking system in hopes to have more success throughout the enitre season.

W L T %
81+% 23 5 0 82.1%
61-80% 65 44 1 59.5%
51-60% 29 25 1 53.6%
          117          74              2 61.1%
Expected Right     130.04 6.8%
Clinching Scenarios

New England Patriots

Patriots clinch AFC East Division with: (32.1%)

  1. NE Win + MIA Loss/Tie OR (31.9%)
  2. NE Tie + Mia Loss (0.2%)

Patriots clinch a first-round bye with: (13.3%)

  1. NE Win + MIA Loss/Tie + PIT Loss/Tie (13.3%)

Oakland Raiders

Raiders clinch a playoff berth with: (45.4%)

  1. OAK Win + MIA Loss/Tie OR (23.9%)
  2. OAK Win + DEN Loss OR (21.2%)
  3. OAK Tie + MIA Loss + BAL Loss/Tie OR (0.2%)
  4. OAK Tie + MIA Loss + PIT Loss/Tie (0.1%)

Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys clinch NFC East division with: (72.3%)

  1. DAL Win (72.3%)

Cowboys clinch a first-round bye with: (46.9%)

  1. DAL Win + DET Loss/Tie OR (20.2%)
  2. DAL Win + SEA Loss (26.7%)

Cowboys clinch home-field advantage with: (7.4%)

  1. DAL Win + DET Loss/Tie + SEA Loss (7.4%)

Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks clinch NFC West division with: (32.9%)

  1. SEA Win + AZ Loss/Tie OR (32.6%)
  2. SEA Tie + AZ Loss (0.3%)

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