Week 15 NFL Preview

Posted: December 14, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Seattle Seahawks 81.7% Los Angeles Rams 18.3%
Sat 7:25 New York Jets 42.5% Miami Dolphins 57.5%
Sun 12:00 Baltimore Ravens 66.2% Philadelphia Eagles 33.8%
Sun 12:00 Buffalo Bills 86.4% Cleveland Browns 13.6%
Sun 12:00 Chicago Bears 38.3% Green Bay Packers 61.7%
Sun 12:00 Cincinnati Bengals 41.5% Pittsburgh Steelers 58.5%
Sun 12:00 Houston Texans 68.7% Jacksonville Jaguars 31.3%
Sun 12:00 Kansas City Chiefs 68.9% Tennessee Titans 31.1%
Sun 12:00 Minnesota Vikings 61.9% Indianapolis Colts 38.1%
Sun 12:00 New York Giants 57.0% Detroit Lions 43.0%
Sun 3:05 Arizona Cardinals 49.5% New Orleans Saints 50.5%
Sun 3:05 Atlanta Falcons 91.6% San Francisco 49ers 8.4%
Sun 3:25 Denver Broncos 45.1% New England Patriots 54.9%
Sun 3:25 San Diego Chargers 41.1% Oakland Raiders 58.9%
Sun 7:30 Dallas Cowboys 69.0% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31.0%
Mon 7:30 Washington Redskins 68.7% Carolina Panthers 31.3%
 Picks of the Week

The week 12 game of the week (7-5-1) is obviously the Patriots and Broncos with major playoff implications on the line. With a win, the Patriots will move into prime position for the 1 seed, and the Broncos would likely drop out of the playoff picture. Meanwhile a Broncos victory would really make the playoff race interesting over the last 2 weeks as many teams would then be vying for many different spots. I mentioned before I won’t pick Broncos game so I have no pick for this game.

Lock of the week (12-2)- No brainer in the Falcons over the 49ers. Falcons 48 49ers 20

Upset of the week (3-10-1)- Eagles defeat the Ravens. Its a road game but this feels like a trap game to me for the Ravens-who will likely face the Steelers for the division crown on Christmas Day Eagles 24 Ravens 17.

 Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 12.3 game spread is down to just 5.9% off, and hopefully can continue its improvement through the rest of the season. I began monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (post week 6). Thus far, post Week 6 results look like this:

Expected 77.1, actual 77, 0.1% off. (66.4% of games picked correctly)

My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate-I will look to improve preseason ranking system in hopes to have more success throughout the entire season.

W L T %
81+% 24 5 0 82.8%
61-80% 70 47 1 59.7%
51-60% 34 27 1 55.6%
          128          79              2 61.7%
Expected Right     140.27 5.9%
Clinching Scenarios
Dallas Cowboys

Clinch NFC East title and first-round bye with: (29.7%)

  1. DAL Win + NYG Loss/Tie OR (29.6%)
  2. DAL Tie + NYG Loss (0.2%)

Clinches NFC East title and home field advantage with: (0.3%)

  1. DAL Win + NYG/DET Tie (0.3%)

Detroit Lions

Clinches NFC North title with: (16.5%)

  1. DET Win + GB Loss/Tie OR (16.4%)
  2. DET Tie + GB Loss + MIN Loss/Tie (0.1%)

Seattle Seahawks

Clinches NFC West title (90.5%)

  1. SEA Win/Tie OR (81.7%)
  2. ARI Loss/Tie (50.5%)

New York Giants

Clinches a playoff berth with: (2.6%)

  1. NYG Win + WAS Loss + MIN Loss/Tie + GB Loss/Tie (2.6%)

New England Patriots

Clinches AFC East title with: (73.6%)

  1. NE Win/Tie OR (54.9%)
  2. MIA Loss/Tie (42.5%)

Clinches AFC East title and first round bye with: (73.3%)

  1. NE Win/Tie OR (54.9%)
  2. MIA Loss/Tie + PIT Loss/Tie OR (17.6%)
  3. MIA Loss/Tie + KC Win (29.3%)

Kansas City Chiefs

Clinches a playoff berth with: (79.5%)

  1. KC Win OR (68.9%)
  2. KC Tie + MIA Loss OR (0.2%)
  3. KC Tie + DEN Loss/Tie OR (0.2%)
  4. DEN Loss + BAL Loss/Tie OR (18.5%)
  5. DEN Loss + PIT Loss/Tie (18.7%)

Oakland Raiders

Clinches a playoff berth with: (73.1%)

  1. OAK Win OR (58.9%)
  2. OAK Tie + MIA Loss OR (0.2%)
  3. OAK Tie + DEN Loss OR (0.3%)
  4. OAK Tie + MIA Tie + DEN Tie OR (0.000001%)
  5. OAK Tie + MIA Tie + KC Win OR (0.002%)
  6. MIA Loss + PIT Loss/Tie + DEN Loss OR (9.7%)
  7. MIA Loss + PIT Loss/Tie + KC Win/Tie OR (12.2%)
  8. MIA Loss + BAL Loss/Tie + DEN Loss OR (7.9%)
  9. MIA Loss + BAL Loss/Tie + KC Win/Tie OR (9.9%)
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