Week 16 NFL Preview

Posted: December 21, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Philadelphia Eagles 41.7% New York Giants 58.3%
Sat 12:00 Buffalo Bills 60.2% Miami Dolphins 39.8%
Sat 12:00 Carolina Panthers 37.1% Atlanta Falcons 62.9%
Sat 12:00 Chicago Bears 36.0% Washington Redskins 64.0%
Sat 12:00 Cleveland Browns 17.0% San Diego Chargers 83.0%
Sat 12:00 Green Bay Packers 62.7% Minnesota Vikings 37.3%
Sat 12:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 30.1% Tennessee Titans 69.9%
Sat 12:00 New England Patriots 88.6% New York Jets 11.4%
Sat 3:05 Oakland Raiders 65.5% Indianapolis Colts 34.5%
Sat 3:25 Los Angeles Rams 67.0% San Francisco 49ers 33.0%
Sat 3:25 New Orleans Saints 46.4% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 53.6%
Sat 3:25 Seattle Seahawks 72.8% Arizona Cardinals 27.2%
Sat 7:25 Houston Texans 41.8% Cincinnati Bengals 58.2%
Sun 3:30 Pittsburgh Steelers 64.5% Baltimore Ravens 35.5%
Sun 7:30 Kansas City Chiefs 61.4% Denver Broncos 38.6%
Mon 7:30 Dallas Cowboys 76.9% Detroit Lions 23.1%
 Picks of the Week

The week 16 game of the week (7-5-1) is the Ravens traveling to Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. Divisional rivalry game that often gets heated on a holiday where everyone is ‘Merry?’ I would watch that 100 times out of 100 opportunities. Throw in the fact that the winner will likely win the division and it becomes absolute must-watch television. Hope you can get your new TV setup for this one! I will take the Steelers in this one. Steelers 21 Ravens 17

Lock of the week (13-2)- Packers over the Vikings, two teams trending in different directions, Packers/Rodgers at home in December cannot be denied. Packers 28 Vikings 13

Upset of the week (3-11-1)- Texans over the Bengals, with Savage at QB the Texans become a lot less predictable to my statistics, but I think Savage plays well here and Texans get a key win down the playoff stretch.

 Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 9.9 game spread is down to just 4.4% off, and hopefully can continue its improvement through the rest of the season. I began monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (post week 6). Thus far, post Week 6 results look like this:

Expected 87.7, actual 90, 1.7% off. (68.2% of games picked correctly)

My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate-I will look to improve preseason ranking system in hopes to have more success throughout the entire season.

W L T %
81+% 27 5 0 84.4%
61-80% 74 50 1 59.6%
51-60% 40 27 1 59.6%
          141          82              2 63.1%
Expected Right     150.89 4.4%

Clinching Scenarios

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas clinches home-field advantage and NFC Eeast Title with: (86.5%)

  1. Dallas Win/Tie OR (76.9%)
  2. New York Giants Loss/Tie (41.7%)

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle clinches a first-round bye with: (20.8%)

  1. Seattle Win + Detroit Loss + Atlanta Loss/Tie (20.8%)

New York Giants

New York Giants clinches a playoff berth with: (98.0%)

  1. NY Giants Win/Tie OR (58.3%)
  2. Detroit Loss/Tie OR (76.9%)
  3. Green Bay Loss/Tie OR (37.3%)
  4. Tampa Bay Loss/Tie OR (46.4%)
  5. Atlanta Loss (37.1%)

Detroit Lions

Detroit clinches NFC North title with: (8.8%)

  1. Detroit Win + Green Bay Loss/Tie OR (8.6%)
  2. Detroit Tie + GB Loss/Tie (0.2%)

Detroit clinches a playoff berth with: (20.3%)

  1. Detroit Win + Tampa Bay Loss/Tie OR (10.7%)
  2. Detroit Tie + Tampa Bay Loss OR (0.2%)
  3. Detroit Tie + Tampa Bay Tie + Atlanta Win OR (0.002%)
  4. Washington Loss/Tie + Tampa Bay Loss + Atlanta Win/Tie (10.5%)

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta clinches NFC South title with: (29.3%)

  1. Atlanta win + Tampa Bay Loss/Tie (29.2%)
  2. Atlanta Tie + Tampa Bay Loss (0.2%)

Atlanta clinches a playoff berth with: (72.9%)

  1. Atlanta win + Atlanta clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DET OR (idk, approximate 31.5%)
  2. Atlanta Win/Tie + Green Bay Loss/Tie OR (23.5%)
  3. Atlanta Win + Detroit Loss/Tie OR (48.4%)
  4. Atlanta Tie + Detroit Tie OR (0.003%)
  5. Washington Loss/Tie + Green Bay Loss OR (13.4%)
  6. Washington Loss/Tie + Green Bay Tie + Detroit Loss (0.1%)

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay clinches a playoff berth with: (3.3%)

  1. Green Bay Win + Washington Loss/Tie + Tampa Bay Loss + Atlanta Win/Tie + Green Bay clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over Tampa Bay (idk, approximate 3.3%)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay clinches a playoff berth with: (5.6%)

  1. Tampa Bay Win + Green Bay Loss + Detroit Loss + Washington Loss OR (5.5%)
  2. Tampa Bay Win + Green Bay Loss + Detroit Loss + Washington Tie + TB Clinches of strength of victory tiebreaker over Detroit (idk, aprroximate .04%)

New England Patriots

New England clinches home-field advantage with: (30.7%)

  1. New England Win + Oakland Loss/Tie OR (30.6%)
  2. New England Tie + Oakland Loss (0.2%)

Oakland Raiders

Oakland clinches AFC West title and a first round bye with: (25.4%)

  1. Oakland Win + Kansas City Loss/Tie OR (25.3%)
  2. Oakland Tie + Kansas City Loss (0.2%)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North title with: (64.5%)

  1. Pittsburgh Win (64.5%)

Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City clinches a playoff berth with: (86.3%)

  1. Kansas City Win/Tie OR (61.4%)
  2. Baltimore Loss/Tie (64.5%)

Houston Texans

Houston clinches the AFC South title with: (12.6%)

  1. Houston Win + Tennessee Loss (12.6%)

Miami Dolphins

Miami clinches a playoff berth with: (15.5%)

  1. Miami win + Denver Loss/Tie (15.4%)
  2. Miami Tie + Baltimore Loss + Denver Loss + Houston Loss/Tie OR (0.1%)
  3. Miami Tie + Baltimore Loss + Denver Loss + Tennessee Loss/Tie (0.1%)
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