Week 17 NFL Preview

Posted: December 31, 2016 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Sun 12:00 Cincinnati Bengals 48.0% Baltimore Ravens 52.0%
Sun 12:00 Indianapolis Colts 68.8% Jacksonville Jaguars 31.2%
Sun 12:00 Miami Dolphins 30.2% New England Patriots 69.8%
Sun 12:00 Minnesota Vikings 66.6% Chicago Bears 33.4%
Sun 12:00 New York Jets 28.1% Buffalo Bills 71.9%
Sun 12:00 Philadelphia Eagles 31.0% Dallas Cowboys 69.0%
Sun 12:00 Pittsburgh Steelers 91.5% Cleveland Browns 8.5%
Sun 12:00 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 63.1% Carolina Panthers 36.9%
Sun 12:00 Tennessee Titans 60.7% Houston Texans 39.3%
Sun 3:25 Atlanta Falcons 74.3% New Orleans Saints 25.7%
Sun 3:25 Denver Broncos 41.9% Oakland Raiders 58.1%
Sun 3:25 Los Angeles Rams 33.0% Arizona Cardinals 67.0%
Sun 3:25 San Diego Chargers 32.7% Kansas City Chiefs 67.3%
Sun 3:25 San Francisco 49ers 17.9% Seattle Seahawks 82.1%
Sun 3:25 Washington Redskins 58.4% New York Giants 41.6%
Sun 7:30 Detroit Lions 38.4% Green Bay Packers 61.6%
Picks of the Week

The week 17 game of the week (8-5-1) is Lions versus Packers on Sunday Night for the NFC North crown. A game that will ultimately decide who is in and who is out for the playoffs happens late on Sunday Night. I like the Packers, a lot, in this one. Packers 34 Lions 21

Lock of the week (14-2)- Falcons are really good and they lock up the 2 seed against the Saints. Falcons 38 Saints 21

Upset of the week (4-11-1)- Bears over Vikings. Oh, how have the Vikings have fallen. Bears 21 Vikings 14

 Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 12.6 game spread is down to just 5.3% off, and hopefully can continue its improvement through the rest of the season. I began monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (post week 6). Thus far, post Week 6 results look like this:

Expected 98.4, actual 98, 5.3% off. (66.2% of games picked correctly)

My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate-I will look to improve preseason ranking system in hopes to have more success throughout the entire season.

W L T %
81+% 28 6 0 82.4%
61-80% 81 53 1 60.4%
51-60% 40 31 1 56.3%
          149      90              2 62.2%
Expected Right     161.59 5.3%
    (12.6)
Clinching Scenarios

New England Patriots

Patriots clinch home-field advantage in the AFC with: (77.8%)

  1. New England Win/Tie OR (69.8%)
  2. Oakland Loss/Tie (41.9%)

Oakland Raiders

Raiders clinch AFC West title and a first-round bye with: (71.8%)

  1. Oakland Win/Tie OR (58.1%)
  2. Kansas City Loss/Tie (32.7%)

Raiders clinch home-field advantage in the AFC with: (17.6%)

  1. Oakland Win + New England Loss (17.6%)

Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs clinch AFC West title and a first-round bye with: (28.2%)

  1. Kansas City Wins + Oakland Loss (28.2%)

Miami Dolphins

Miami clinches No. 5 seed with: (9.9%)

  1. Miami Win + Kansas City Loss (9.9%)

Atlanta Falcons

Falcons clinch first-round bye with: (77.2%)

  1. Atlanta Win OR (74.3%)
  2. Atlanta Tie OR Seattle Loss/Tie OR (0.1%)
  3. Seattle Loss + Detroit Loss/Tie OR (11.1%)
  4. Seattle Tie + Detroit Loss (0.3%)

Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks clinch a first-round bye with: (21.1%)

  1. Seattle Win + Atlanta Loss/Tie OR (21.1%)
  2. Seattle Tie + Atlanta Loss + Green Bay/Detroit Tie (0.001%)

Detroit Lions

Detroit clinches the NFC North with: (38.4%)

  1. Detroit Win (38.4%)

Detroit clinches a first-round bye with: (1.8%)

  1. Detroit Win + Seattle Loss/Tie + Atlanta Loss (1.8%)

Detroit clinches a playoff berth with: (41.9%)

  1. Detroit Tie OR (0.005%)
  2. Washington Loss/Tie (41.6%)

Green Bay Packers

Packers clinch NFC North with: (61.6%)

  1. Green Bay Win/Tie (61.6%)

Packers clinch a playoff berth with: (42.0%)

  1. Washington Loss OR (41.6%)
  2. Washington Tie + Tampa Bay Win + Green Bay clinching at least a tie in strength of victory over Tampa Bay (Green Bay clinches at least a tie in SOV tiebreaker if any of the following teams win/tie: Seattle, Houston, Jacksonville and Philadelphia) (0.006%)

Washington Redskins

Washington clinches a playoff berth with: (57.8%)

  1. Washington Win + Green Bay/Detroit does not end in tie OR (57.8%)
  2. Washington Tie + Green Bay Loss + Tampa Bay Loss/Tie (0.1%)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay clinches a playoff berth with: (0.006%)

  1. Tampa Bay Win + Washington Tie + Green Bay Loss + Tennessee Win + Indianapolis Win + Dallas Win + San Francisco Win (0.006%)

 

 

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