Archive for January, 2017

Week 13 College Basketball Top 25

Posted: January 30, 2017 in NCAA
Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 95.0% 22 29 – 1 17 – 1 1 0
2 Kentucky SEC 84.9% 17 25 – 6 15 – 3 2 0
3 SMU Amer 84.3% 18 25 – 6 15 – 3 6 3
4 Villanova BE 84.1% 20 27 – 4 14 – 4 4 0
5 Kansas B12 83.9% 19 26 – 5 14 – 4 5 0
6 Arizona P12 83.6% 20 27 – 4 16 – 2 7 1
7 Oregon P12 83.4% 18 24 – 6 14 – 4 3 -4
8 Wisconsin B10 83.3% 18 25 – 6 14 – 4 8 0
9 Cincinnati Amer 83.1% 19 26 – 5 15 – 3 11 2
10 Saint Mary’s WCC 82.3% 19 25 – 4 15 – 3 17 7
11 Wichita St. MVC 82.0% 18 24 – 6 15 – 3 20 9
12 West Virginia B12 81.7% 17 24 – 7 12 – 6 9 -3
13 Louisville ACC 81.5% 18 24 – 7 12 – 6 18 5
14 Baylor B12 80.9% 19 25 – 5 13 – 5 10 -4
15 Virginia ACC 80.5% 16 23 – 7 13 – 5 22 7
16 Purdue B10 80.0% 17 23 – 8 12 – 6 14 -2
17 UCLA P12 79.4% 19 26 – 5 13 – 5 12 -5
18 North Carolina ACC 79.2% 18 24 – 7 13 – 5 13 -5
19 Middle Tennessee CUSA 78.9% 18 25 – 5 16 – 2 19 0
20 Illinois St. MVC 78.0% 17 23 – 6 16 – 2 15 -5
21 Florida SEC 77.9% 15 22 – 9 12 – 6 29 8
22 New Mexico St. WAC 76.9% 18 24 – 3 13 – 1 34 12
23 Vermont AE 76.6% 17 24 – 6 15 – 1 35 12
24 Belmont OVC 76.2% 15 21 – 5 15 – 1 42 18
25 Northwestern B10 76.0% 18 23 – 8 12 – 6 31 6

Dropped Out: Creighton, Florida State, Utah, Notre Dame, UNC Wilmington

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Week 12 Mid Major 15

Posted: January 25, 2017 in NCAA

The Mid Major 15 is a ranking of the top 15 mid-major teams in the country. Conferences excluded from these rankings are the power-7: ACC, American, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. The teams that appear on this list are likely good names to know when searching for Cinderella come March. Although, Gonzaga will likely be a top seed in March.

Gonzaga holds on to the number 1 spot (not even close to losing it). Wichita State takes over the #2 spot from Saint Mary’s, who falls to 3. Illinois State moves up one spot to #4. New ranked teams are BYU, Belmont and Rhode Island, all ranked near the back of the top 15.

Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 94.8% 20 29 – 1 17 – 1 1 0
2 Wichita St. MVC 81.7% 17 24 – 6 15 – 3 5 +3
3 Saint Mary’s WCC 81.2% 17 24 – 5 14 – 4 2 -1
4 Illinois St. MVC 80.6% 15 23 – 6 16 – 2 3 +1
5 Middle Tennessee CUSA 80.0% 16 25 – 5 16 – 2 6 +1
6 UNC Wilmington CAA 78.5% 17 26 – 4 16 – 2 4 -2
7 Dayton A10 76.6% 14 22 – 7 14 – 4 8 +1
8 Louisiana Tech CUSA 75.0% 12 20 – 9 14 – 4 13 +5
9 VCU A10 74.9% 15 22 – 9 12 – 6 7 -2
10 New Mexico St. WAC 74.7% 16 23 – 4 12 – 2 11 +1
11 Vermont AE 74.5% 15 23 – 7 14 – 2 10 -1
12 BYU WCC 72.8% 15 21 – 10 12 – 6 NR
13 Princeton Ivy 72.1% 9 17 – 9 11 – 3 12 -1
14 Belmont OVC 71.7% 13 20 – 6 14 – 2 NR -1
15 Rhode Island A10 70.4% 12 19 – 11 11 – 7 NR -1

Dropped Out: Nevada, East Tennessee State, Northeastern

Week 12 College Basketball Top 25

Posted: January 24, 2017 in NCAA

Sorry it is late, was at the Bucks-Rockets game.

Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 94.8% 19 29 – 1 17 – 1 1 0
2 Kentucky SEC 91.1% 17 27 – 4 16 – 2 2 0
3 Oregon P12 87.7% 17 25 – 5 15 – 3 5 2
4 Villanova BE 87.2% 19 28 – 3 15 – 3 7 3
5 Kansas B12 87.1% 18 26 – 5 15 – 3 4 -1
6 SMU Amer 85.3% 17 25 – 6 15 – 3 10 4
7 Arizona P12 84.7% 18 27 – 4 16 – 2 11 4
8 Wisconsin B10 83.4% 16 25 – 6 14 – 4 8 0
9 West Virginia B12 83.1% 15 23 – 8 11 – 7 3 -6
10 Baylor B12 82.7% 17 25 – 5 13 – 5 14 4
11 Cincinnati Amer 82.5% 17 26 – 5 15 – 3 13 2
12 UCLA P12 82.2% 19 26 – 5 13 – 5 6 -6
13 North Carolina ACC 82.0% 17 24 – 7 13 – 5 17 4
14 Purdue B10 81.7% 16 23 – 8 12 – 6 22 8
15 Illinois St. MVC 81.3% 15 23 – 6 16 – 2 20 5
16 Florida St. ACC 81.1% 18 25 – 6 13 – 5 12 -4
17 Saint Mary’s WCC 80.9% 17 24 – 5 14 – 4 16 -1
18 Louisville ACC 80.3% 16 23 – 8 11 – 7 19 1
19 Middle Tennessee CUSA 80.0% 16 25 – 5 16 – 2 26 7
20 Wichita St. MVC 80.0% 16 24 – 6 15 – 3 27 7
21 Notre Dame ACC 79.4% 17 24 – 7 13 – 5 18 -3
22 Virginia ACC 78.9% 15 22 – 8 12 – 6 24 2
23 UNC Wilmington CAA 78.5% 17 26 – 4 16 – 2 21 -2
24 Creighton BE 78.1% 17 24 – 6 12 – 6 9 -15
25 Utah P12 77.9% 12 20 – 8 13 – 5 39 14

Dropped Out: Duke, Florida and Butler

Conference Championship Weekend Preview

Posted: January 19, 2017 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Sun 2:05 Atlanta Falcons 63.8% Green Bay Packers 36.2%
Sun 5:40 New England Patriots 69.9% Pittsburgh Steelers 30.1%
Picks of the Week

Since the playoffs are upon us I will not be picking upsets and locks and games of the week and will instead pick each game. I was 9-5-1 in picking games not considered locks or upsets in the regular season. I am 8-0 thus far in the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Packers

Conference Championship weekend will give us 2 great matchups that will likely lead to a great Super Bowl. In the NFC Championship we get Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who have been on fire lately, matched up against Matt Ryan and the Falcons. A great matchup of Quarterbacks and offenses and a rematch of a spectacular game that Atlanta won earlier in the season. As good as Rodgers has been in the past month, Matt Ryan has been quietly been putting up even better numbers, most of which without Julio Jones. I think these teams are very even and I would not be surprised if the last team with the ball gets the win. I like the Falcons to get the last shot at it and get a late win. Falcons 34 Packers 30

Patriots vs. Steelers

The AFC Championship features some familiar faces in Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots vs. Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Patriots have been really good all season long, but really struggled last week against the Texans. I would not be surprised if that was the only game that the Patriots played at a sub par level. I expect them to give the Steelers a really good fight. The Steelers have won 9 straight games and the offense has looked as good as everyone expected it would going into the season. However, I still worry about the defense, especially against the Patriots and that is why I think the Patriots make their seventh Super Bowl in 16 years. Patriots 31 Steelers 27

Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 12.7 game spread is down to just 4.8% off, and hopefully can continue its improvement through the rest of the season. I began monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (post week 6). Thus far, post Week 6 results look like this:

Expected 114.5, actual 114, 0.3% off. (66.3% of games picked correctly)

My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate-I will look to improve preseason ranking system in hopes to have more success throughout the entire season.

W L T %
81+% 31 6 0 83.8%
61-80% 93 57 1 61.9%
51-60% 41 34 1 54.6%
          165      97              2 62.9%
Expected Right     177.69 4.8%

Week 11 Mid Major 15

Posted: January 18, 2017 in NCAA

The Mid Major 15 is a ranking of the top 15 mid-major teams in the country. Conferences excluded from these rankings are the power-7: ACC, American, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. The teams that appear on this list are likely good names to know when searching for Cinderella come March. Although, St. Mary’s and Gonzaga will likely be top seeds in March.

Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s hold the top spots once again, and like I said a few weeks ago that will probably be the case for the rest of the season, well at least for Gonzaga. Illinois State jumped to #3  after beating former #3 Wichita State fairly easily this past weekend; Wichita State fell to #5.  UNC Wilmington held on to the #4 spot. For the most part the top 8 teams have consistently been ranked over the past few weeks and these will probably be the most dangerous teams come March. Meanwhile a lot of teams have been shuffling in and out of the back end of the rankings. New teams this week include: Nevada, Vermont, Princeton, Louisiana Tech and Northeastern.

Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 95.0% 17 29 – 1 17 – 1 1
2 Saint Mary’s WCC 81.7% 15 24 – 5 14 – 4 2
3 Illinois St. MVC 79.2% 13 22 – 7 15 – 3 7 +4
4 UNC Wilmington CAA 79.1% 15 25 – 5 15 – 3 4
5 Wichita St. MVC 78.2% 15 23 – 7 14 – 4 3 -2
6 Middle Tennessee CUSA 76.9% 14 24 – 6 15 – 3 8 +2
7 VCU A10 75.1% 14 23 – 8 13 – 5 1 +4
8 Dayton A10 74.7% 12 21 – 8 13 – 5 5 -3
9 Nevada MWC 74.0% 15 24 – 7 13 – 5 NR
10 Vermont AE 73.9% 14 22 – 8 13 – 3 NR
11 New Mexico St. WAC 73.3% 15 23 – 4 12 – 2 14 +3
12 Princeton Ivy 71.6% 9 17 – 9 11 – 3 NR
13 Louisiana Tech CUSA 71.5% 10 20 – 9 14 – 4 NR
14 East Tennessee St. SC 71.1% 12 21 – 8 13 – 5 12 -2
15 Northeastern CAA 70.6% 12 20 – 10 13 – 5 NR

 

Dropped Out: Rhode Island, Boise State, Oakland, BYU, UT Arlington

Week 11 College Basketball Top 25

Posted: January 16, 2017 in NCAA
Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 95.0% 17 29 – 1 17 – 1 1 0
2 Kentucky SEC 91.0% 15 26 – 5 16 – 2 2 0
3 West Virginia B12 89.9% 15 26 – 5 14 – 4 3 0
4 Kansas B12 88.5% 16 25 – 6 14 – 4 4 0
5 Oregon P12 87.9% 15 25 – 5 15 – 3 7 2
6 UCLA P12 87.7% 18 28 – 3 15 – 3 5 -1
7 Villanova BE 87.6% 17 27 – 4 14 – 4 10 3
8 Wisconsin B10 85.5% 14 25 – 6 14 – 4 14 6
9 Creighton BE 84.1% 16 25 – 4 14 – 4 16 7
10 SMU Amer 83.8% 15 24 – 7 14 – 4 13 3
11 Arizona P12 83.4% 16 25 – 6 14 – 4 15 4
12 Florida St. ACC 83.1% 16 25 – 6 13 – 5 8 -4
13 Cincinnati Amer 83.0% 15 26 – 5 15 – 3 12 -1
14 Baylor B12 82.5% 15 24 – 6 12 – 6 9 -5
15 Florida SEC 82.1% 14 23 – 8 14 – 4 17 2
16 Saint Mary’s WCC 81.7% 15 24 – 5 14 – 4 6 -10
17 North Carolina ACC 81.3% 15 23 – 8 12 – 6 24 7
18 Notre Dame ACC 79.6% 16 24 – 7 13 – 5 25 7
19 Louisville ACC 79.3% 15 23 – 8 11 – 7 22 3
20 Illinois St. MVC 79.2% 13 22 – 7 15 – 3 31 11
21 UNC Wilmington CAA 79.1% 15 25 – 5 15 – 3 23 2
22 Purdue B10 78.8% 14 22 – 9 11 – 7 20 -2
23 Duke ACC 77.9% 14 21 – 10 9 – 9 11 -12
24 Virginia ACC 77.7% 13 21 – 9 11 – 7 33 9
25 Butler BE 77.5% 15 23 – 7 12 – 6 19 -6

Dropped Out: Wichita State, Kansas State

Gonzaga retains the #1 overall spot after another impressive week that included dominating conference rival St. Mary’s–who fell 10 spots to 16. Kentucky, West Virginia and Kansas all retained their respective spots in the top 5 as well and Oregon moved into the #5 spot, slightly edging out UCLA.Wisconsin, Creighton and SMU all moved into the Top 10. Illinois State moves to #20 after a great Win against Wichita State. Virginia also reenters the Top 25.

Divisional Round Preview

Posted: January 13, 2017 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Sat 3:35 Atlanta Falcons 68.9% Seattle Seahawks 31.1%
Sat 7:15 New England Patriots 81.6% Houston Texans 18.4%
Sun 3:40 Dallas Cowboys 57.1% Green Bay Packers 42.9%
Sun 7:20 Kansas City Chiefs 61.4% Pittsburgh Steelers 38.6%
Picks of the Week

Since the playoffs are upon us I will not be picking upsets and locks and games of the week and will instead pick each game. I was 9-5-1 in picking games not considered locks or upsets in the regular season. I went 4-0 in the wild card round.

Falcons vs. Seahawks

A very good game to open wild card weekend. A rematch of a midseason matchup (all divisional round games are rematches) that Seattle won on a controversial call at home. I really like this Falcons team and would have probably taken them in this matchup with Earl Thomas playing. The Seahawks have not looked great since that injury and that makes this pick even easier. Falcons 31 Seahawks 23

Patriots vs. Texans

No comment. Patriots 28 Texans 0

Cowboys vs. Packers

The best games of the weekend are both on Sunday and this game is very interesting. The Cowboys are the best team in the NFC and the Packers are the hottest team in the NFC. The first time around, the Cowboys ran all over the Packers en route to an impressive win but at that point the Packers were still in a little bit of a funk. I think this game is a lot closer and I think ultimately Rodgers win this one late. Packers 34 Cowboys 31

Chiefs vs. Steelers

I think this is the toughest game to pick because I could see a close win for either team or a blowout for either team. I like the trio of weapons that Pittsburgh offers and I will take them to win. Steelers 28 Chiefs 24

Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 12.0 game spread is down to just 4.6% off, and hopefully can continue its improvement through the rest of the season. I began monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (post week 6). Thus far, post Week 6 results look like this:

Expected 111.84, actual 112, 0.1% off. (66.7% of games picked correctly)

My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate-I will look to improve preseason ranking system in hopes to have more success throughout the entire season.

W L T %
81+% 30 6 0 83.3%
61-80% 92 56 1 62.1%
51-60% 41 33 1 55.3%
          163      95              2 63.1%
Expected Right     175.00 4.6%
    (12.00)

Week 10 Mid Major 15

Posted: January 11, 2017 in NCAA

The Mid Major 15 is a ranking of the top 15 mid-major teams in the country. Conferences excluded from these rankings are the power-7: ACC, American, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. The teams that appear on this list are likely good names to know when searching for Cinderella come March. Although, St. Mary’s and Gonzaga will likely be top seeds in March.

Little later than normal today since I struggled to wake up early. Anyways, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s retained the top 2 spots again and Wichita State slid into the #3 spot. UNC Wilmington is up 7 spots to #4 and has been very good all season. Dayton dropped to 5 while Rhode Island and Illinois State held the 6 and 7 spots, respectively. 3 new entrants to the top 15 are Boise State, Oakland and East Tennessee State.Former #4 UT Arlington fell 11 spots to 15.

Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 94.3% 15 28 – 1 16 – 1 1
2 Saint Mary’s WCC 87.7% 14 25 – 4 15 – 3 2
3 Wichita St. MVC 81.5% 13 24 – 6 15 – 3 5 +2
4 UNC Wilmington CAA 79.7% 13 25 – 5 15 – 3 11 +7
5 Dayton A10 79.0% 11 22 – 7 14 – 4 3 -2
6 Rhode Island A10 76.9% 10 20 – 10 12 – 6 6
7 Illinois St. MVC 76.8% 11 21 – 8 14 – 4 7
8 Middle Tennessee CUSA 76.5% 12 24 – 6 15 – 3 13 +5
9 Boise St. MWC 76.2% 10 20 – 8 14 – 4 NR
10 Oakland Horz 76.1% 12 23 – 6 15 – 3 NR
11 VCU A10 75.8% 13 23 – 8 13 – 5 9 -2
12 East Tennessee St. SC 75.8% 11 22 – 7 14 – 4 NR
13 BYU WCC 74.8% 12 21 – 10 12 – 6 8 -5
14 New Mexico St. WAC 74.0% 13 22 – 5 11 – 3 15 +1
15 UT Arlington SB 72.7% 10 21 – 8 13 – 5 4 -11

Dropped Out: Princeton, Nevada, San Diego State

Week 10 College Basketball Top 25

Posted: January 9, 2017 in NCAA
Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 94.3% 15 28 – 1 16 – 1 3 2
2 Kentucky SEC 91.1% 13 26 – 5 15 – 3 8 6
3 West Virginia B12 90.9% 13 25 – 6 13 – 5 4 1
4 Kansas B12 90.7% 14 25 – 6 14 – 4 2 -2
5 UCLA P12 88.1% 16 27 – 4 14 – 4 7 2
6 Saint Mary’s WCC 87.7% 14 25 – 4 15 – 3 11 5
7 Oregon P12 87.0% 14 25 – 5 15 – 3 19 12
8 Florida St. ACC 86.8% 15 25 – 6 13 – 5 10 2
9 Baylor B12 86.7% 14 24 – 6 12 – 6 1 -8
10 Villanova BE 86.1% 15 26 – 5 14 – 4 6 -4
11 Duke ACC 85.8% 14 24 – 7 12 – 6 5 -6
12 Cincinnati Amer 85.4% 13 26 – 5 15 – 3 17 5
13 SMU Amer 84.5% 14 25 – 6 15 – 3 25 12
14 Wisconsin B10 84.4% 13 24 – 7 13 – 5 9 -5
15 Arizona P12 84.0% 15 25 – 6 14 – 4 13 -2
16 Creighton BE 83.5% 15 24 – 5 13 – 5 27 11
17 Florida SEC 83.3% 12 23 – 8 13 – 5 16 -1
18 Kansas St. B12 83.2% 13 22 – 9 10 – 8 15 -3
19 Butler BE 82.0% 14 23 – 7 12 – 6 22 3
20 Purdue B10 81.9% 14 24 – 7 13 – 5 24 4
21 Wichita St. MVC 81.6% 13 24 – 6 15 – 3 32 11
22 Louisville ACC 81.1% 13 22 – 9 10 – 8 21 -1
23 UNC Wilmington CAA 79.7% 13 25 – 5 15 – 3 63 40
24 North Carolina ACC 79.6% 13 22 – 9 11 – 7 18 -6
25 Notre Dame ACC 79.2% 14 23 – 8 12 – 6 28 3

Dropped Out: Texas Tech, Virginia, Miami FL, Virginia Tech

Wild Card Weekend Preview

Posted: January 6, 2017 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Sat 3:35 Houston Texans 37.2% Oakland Raiders 62.8%
Sat 7:15 Seattle Seahawks 70.4% Detroit Lions 29.6%
Sun 12:05 Pittsburgh Steelers 68.3% Miami Dolphins 31.7%
Sun 3:40 Green Bay Packers 57.4% New York Giants 42.6%
Picks of the Week

Since the playoffs are upon us I will not be picking upsets and locks and games of the week and will instead pick each game. I was 9-5-1 in picking games not considered locks or upsets. Here we go.

Texans vs. Raiders

This could go down in history as the worst playoff game ever. The Texans hold one of the worst (if not the worst) scoring margins of all time among playoff teams and the Raiders are relying on a rookie 3rd string first-time starter at quarterback. The strength of the Texans all year has been their defense while the strength of the Raiders has been their offensive line. However, one of the main cogs of that offensive line, Donald Penn, will not play tomorrow. I like the Texans in this one in an ugly, ugly game. Texans 12 Raiders 10

Seahawks vs. Lions

The Seahawks have been pretty bad since Earl Thomas went down but the Lions have been even worse. I think this came could end up being closer than a majority of people think but in the end the Seattle defense, at home, will be too much for Stafford to handle. Seahawks 27 Lions 17

Steelers vs. Dolphins

A rematch of a game that lost a lot of people their survivor pools when the Steelers lost to the Dolphins 30-15. The Dolphins had major success behind Jay Ajayi and that game and they probably have more of the same success. However, Miami is without three of their best pass defenders and the Steelers have been playing really well as of late. I think Big Ben and AB has a big game. Steelers 38 Dolphins 24

Packers vs. Giants

Easily the best game of Wild Card Weekend in a matchup where the winner gets to test Dallas. The Packers have been red hot as of late and will go up against a Giants team being carried by their defense and OBJ. I really don’t know who comes away in this one so I will go with a double OT win for the Packers. Packers 28 Giants 25 

 

Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 12.6 game spread is down to just 4.9% off, and hopefully can continue its improvement through the rest of the season. I began monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (post week 6). Thus far, post Week 6 results look like this:

Expected 109.3, actual 109, 0.2% off. (66.5% of games picked correctly)

My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate-I will look to improve preseason ranking system in hopes to have more success throughout the entire season.

W L T %
81+% 30 6 0 83.3%
61-80% 90 55 1 62.0%
51-60% 40 33 1 54.7%
          160      94              2 62.9%
Expected Right     172.41 4.9%