Wild Card Weekend Preview

Posted: January 6, 2017 in NFL
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Sat 3:35 Houston Texans 37.2% Oakland Raiders 62.8%
Sat 7:15 Seattle Seahawks 70.4% Detroit Lions 29.6%
Sun 12:05 Pittsburgh Steelers 68.3% Miami Dolphins 31.7%
Sun 3:40 Green Bay Packers 57.4% New York Giants 42.6%
Picks of the Week

Since the playoffs are upon us I will not be picking upsets and locks and games of the week and will instead pick each game. I was 9-5-1 in picking games not considered locks or upsets. Here we go.

Texans vs. Raiders

This could go down in history as the worst playoff game ever. The Texans hold one of the worst (if not the worst) scoring margins of all time among playoff teams and the Raiders are relying on a rookie 3rd string first-time starter at quarterback. The strength of the Texans all year has been their defense while the strength of the Raiders has been their offensive line. However, one of the main cogs of that offensive line, Donald Penn, will not play tomorrow. I like the Texans in this one in an ugly, ugly game. Texans 12 Raiders 10

Seahawks vs. Lions

The Seahawks have been pretty bad since Earl Thomas went down but the Lions have been even worse. I think this came could end up being closer than a majority of people think but in the end the Seattle defense, at home, will be too much for Stafford to handle. Seahawks 27 Lions 17

Steelers vs. Dolphins

A rematch of a game that lost a lot of people their survivor pools when the Steelers lost to the Dolphins 30-15. The Dolphins had major success behind Jay Ajayi and that game and they probably have more of the same success. However, Miami is without three of their best pass defenders and the Steelers have been playing really well as of late. I think Big Ben and AB has a big game. Steelers 38 Dolphins 24

Packers vs. Giants

Easily the best game of Wild Card Weekend in a matchup where the winner gets to test Dallas. The Packers have been red hot as of late and will go up against a Giants team being carried by their defense and OBJ. I really don’t know who comes away in this one so I will go with a double OT win for the Packers. Packers 28 Giants 25 



Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 12.6 game spread is down to just 4.9% off, and hopefully can continue its improvement through the rest of the season. I began monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (post week 6). Thus far, post Week 6 results look like this:

Expected 109.3, actual 109, 0.2% off. (66.5% of games picked correctly)

My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate-I will look to improve preseason ranking system in hopes to have more success throughout the entire season.

W L T %
81+% 30 6 0 83.3%
61-80% 90 55 1 62.0%
51-60% 40 33 1 54.7%
          160      94              2 62.9%
Expected Right     172.41 4.9%

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