Divisional Round Preview

Posted: January 13, 2017 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Sat 3:35 Atlanta Falcons 68.9% Seattle Seahawks 31.1%
Sat 7:15 New England Patriots 81.6% Houston Texans 18.4%
Sun 3:40 Dallas Cowboys 57.1% Green Bay Packers 42.9%
Sun 7:20 Kansas City Chiefs 61.4% Pittsburgh Steelers 38.6%
Picks of the Week

Since the playoffs are upon us I will not be picking upsets and locks and games of the week and will instead pick each game. I was 9-5-1 in picking games not considered locks or upsets in the regular season. I went 4-0 in the wild card round.

Falcons vs. Seahawks

A very good game to open wild card weekend. A rematch of a midseason matchup (all divisional round games are rematches) that Seattle won on a controversial call at home. I really like this Falcons team and would have probably taken them in this matchup with Earl Thomas playing. The Seahawks have not looked great since that injury and that makes this pick even easier. Falcons 31 Seahawks 23

Patriots vs. Texans

No comment. Patriots 28 Texans 0

Cowboys vs. Packers

The best games of the weekend are both on Sunday and this game is very interesting. The Cowboys are the best team in the NFC and the Packers are the hottest team in the NFC. The first time around, the Cowboys ran all over the Packers en route to an impressive win but at that point the Packers were still in a little bit of a funk. I think this game is a lot closer and I think ultimately Rodgers win this one late. Packers 34 Cowboys 31

Chiefs vs. Steelers

I think this is the toughest game to pick because I could see a close win for either team or a blowout for either team. I like the trio of weapons that Pittsburgh offers and I will take them to win. Steelers 28 Chiefs 24

Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 12.0 game spread is down to just 4.6% off, and hopefully can continue its improvement through the rest of the season. I began monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (post week 6). Thus far, post Week 6 results look like this:

Expected 111.84, actual 112, 0.1% off. (66.7% of games picked correctly)

My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate-I will look to improve preseason ranking system in hopes to have more success throughout the entire season.

W L T %
81+% 30 6 0 83.3%
61-80% 92 56 1 62.1%
51-60% 41 33 1 55.3%
          163      95              2 63.1%
Expected Right     175.00 4.6%
    (12.00)
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s