Conference Championship Weekend Preview

Posted: January 19, 2017 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Sun 2:05 Atlanta Falcons 63.8% Green Bay Packers 36.2%
Sun 5:40 New England Patriots 69.9% Pittsburgh Steelers 30.1%
Picks of the Week

Since the playoffs are upon us I will not be picking upsets and locks and games of the week and will instead pick each game. I was 9-5-1 in picking games not considered locks or upsets in the regular season. I am 8-0 thus far in the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Packers

Conference Championship weekend will give us 2 great matchups that will likely lead to a great Super Bowl. In the NFC Championship we get Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who have been on fire lately, matched up against Matt Ryan and the Falcons. A great matchup of Quarterbacks and offenses and a rematch of a spectacular game that Atlanta won earlier in the season. As good as Rodgers has been in the past month, Matt Ryan has been quietly been putting up even better numbers, most of which without Julio Jones. I think these teams are very even and I would not be surprised if the last team with the ball gets the win. I like the Falcons to get the last shot at it and get a late win. Falcons 34 Packers 30

Patriots vs. Steelers

The AFC Championship features some familiar faces in Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots vs. Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Patriots have been really good all season long, but really struggled last week against the Texans. I would not be surprised if that was the only game that the Patriots played at a sub par level. I expect them to give the Steelers a really good fight. The Steelers have won 9 straight games and the offense has looked as good as everyone expected it would going into the season. However, I still worry about the defense, especially against the Patriots and that is why I think the Patriots make their seventh Super Bowl in 16 years. Patriots 31 Steelers 27

Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 12.7 game spread is down to just 4.8% off, and hopefully can continue its improvement through the rest of the season. I began monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (post week 6). Thus far, post Week 6 results look like this:

Expected 114.5, actual 114, 0.3% off. (66.3% of games picked correctly)

My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate-I will look to improve preseason ranking system in hopes to have more success throughout the entire season.

W L T %
81+% 31 6 0 83.8%
61-80% 93 57 1 61.9%
51-60% 41 34 1 54.6%
          165      97              2 62.9%
Expected Right     177.69 4.8%
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