Archive for February, 2017

Week 17 College Basketball Top 25

Posted: February 27, 2017 in NCAA
Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 89.0% 29 29 – 1 17 – 1 1 0
2 Wichita St. MVC 84.4% 26 26 – 4 17 – 1 3 1
3 SMU Amer 81.4% 25 27 – 4 17 – 1 7 4
4 Villanova BE 81.3% 27 28 – 3 15 – 3 2 -2
5 Oregon P12 81.3% 25 26 – 4 16 – 2 4 -1
6 Kansas B12 80.7% 26 27 – 4 15 – 3 6 0
7 UCLA P12 79.9% 26 28 – 3 15 – 3 11 4
8 Kentucky SEC 79.8% 24 25 – 6 15 – 3 9 1
9 Florida SEC 79.3% 22 24 – 7 14 – 4 5 -4
10 Cincinnati Amer 78.9% 25 26 – 5 15 – 3 12 2
11 West Virginia B12 78.6% 23 24 – 7 12 – 6 10 -1
12 North Carolina ACC 78.6% 24 25 – 6 14 – 4 14 2
13 Louisville ACC 78.3% 23 24 – 7 12 – 6 13 0
14 Purdue B10 77.9% 23 24 – 7 13 – 5 8 -6
15 Saint Mary’s WCC 77.8% 26 26 – 3 16 – 2 15 0
16 Dayton A10 75.6% 22 23 – 6 15 – 3 22 6
17 Arizona P12 75.3% 26 27 – 4 16 – 2 20 3
18 Middle Tennessee CUSA 75.2% 24 26 – 4 17 – 1 19 1
19 Baylor B12 74.9% 22 23 – 7 11 – 7 17 -2
20 Vermont AE 74.7% 25 25 – 5 16 – 0 24 4
21 Princeton Ivy 74.1% 18 20 – 6 14 – 0 30 9
22 Virginia ACC 74.0% 19 20 – 10 10 – 8 18 -4
23 Florida St. ACC 73.9% 23 24 – 7 12 – 6 25 2
24 Butler BE 73.4% 23 24 – 6 13 – 5 29 5
25 Duke ACC 73.4% 22 23 – 8 11 – 7 21 -4

Dropped Out: Wisconsin (16), VCU (23)

Advertisements

Week 16 Mid Major 15

Posted: February 22, 2017 in NCAA

The Mid Major 15 is a ranking of the top 15 mid-major teams in the country. Conferences excluded from these rankings are the power-7: ACC, American, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. The teams that appear on this list are likely good names to know when searching for Cinderella come March. Although, Gonzaga will likely be a top seed in March.

Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 91.3% 28 30 – 0 18 – 0 1
2 Wichita St. MVC 83.4% 25 26 – 4 17 – 1 2
3 Saint Mary’s WCC 77.6% 24 26 – 3 16 – 2 3
4 Middle Tennessee CUSA 75.5% 23 25 – 5 16 – 2 5 +1
5 Dayton A10 75.0% 21 23 – 6 15 – 3 4 -1
6 VCU A10 74.0% 22 24 – 7 14 – 4 6
7 Vermont AE 73.4% 23 25 – 5 16 – 0 8 +1
8 Princeton Ivy 71.4% 16 19 – 7 13 – 1 12 +4
9 Rhode Island A10 69.6% 18 20 – 10 12 – 6 7 -2
10 Monmouth MAAC 69.6% 24 25 – 6 17 – 3 14 +4
11 Bucknell Pat 69.2% 21 23 – 8 15 – 3 11
12 UT Arlington SB 69.2% 19 22 – 7 14 – 4 13 +1
13 Belmont OVC 68.0% 20 21 – 5 15 – 1 9 -4
14 Illinois St. MVC 68.0% 22 23 – 6 16 – 2 10 -4
15 Louisiana Tech CUSA 67.9% 18 20 – 9 14 – 4 NR

Dropped Out: UNC Wilmington (15)

Week 16 College Basketball Top 25

Posted: February 20, 2017 in NCAA
Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 91.4% 28 30 – 0 18 – 0 1 0
2 Villanova BE 83.0% 26 28 – 3 15 – 3 3 1
3 Wichita St. MVC 82.9% 24 26 – 4 17 – 1 5 2
4 Oregon P12 82.6% 23 25 – 5 15 – 3 6 2
5 Florida SEC 81.5% 21 24 – 7 14 – 4 4 -1
6 Kansas B12 81.3% 24 27 – 4 15 – 3 7 1
7 SMU Amer 81.2% 24 26 – 5 16 – 2 2 -5
8 Purdue B10 80.3% 22 25 – 6 14 – 4 10 2
9 Kentucky SEC 80.0% 22 25 – 6 15 – 3 14 5
10 West Virginia B12 79.7% 21 24 – 7 12 – 6 11 1
11 UCLA P12 79.5% 24 27 – 4 14 – 4 15 4
12 Cincinnati Amer 78.8% 24 27 – 4 16 – 2 13 1
13 Louisville ACC 78.8% 22 24 – 7 12 – 6 8 -5
14 North Carolina ACC 77.8% 22 24 – 7 13 – 5 18 4
15 Saint Mary’s WCC 77.6% 24 26 – 3 16 – 2 19 4
16 Wisconsin B10 77.6% 22 25 – 6 14 – 4 16 0
17 Baylor B12 77.2% 21 23 – 7 11 – 7 12 -5
18 Virginia ACC 75.8% 18 21 – 9 11 – 7 9 -9
19 Middle Tennessee CUSA 75.5% 23 25 – 5 16 – 2 25 6
20 Arizona P12 75.3% 25 27 – 4 16 – 2 20 0
21 Duke ACC 74.9% 22 24 – 7 12 – 6 22 1
22 Dayton A10 74.6% 20 23 – 6 15 – 3 21 -1
23 VCU A10 74.0% 22 24 – 7 14 – 4 24 1
24 Vermont AE 73.5% 23 25 – 5 16 – 0 29 5
25 Florida St. ACC 73.1% 21 23 – 8 11 – 7 17 -8

Dropped Out: Creighton (23)

Week 15 Mid Major 15

Posted: February 15, 2017 in NCAA

The Mid Major 15 is a ranking of the top 15 mid-major teams in the country. Conferences excluded from these rankings are the power-7: ACC, American, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. The teams that appear on this list are likely good names to know when searching for Cinderella come March. Although, Gonzaga will likely be a top seed in March.

Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 92.2% 26 30 – 0 18 – 0 1
2 Wichita St. MVC 81.6% 22 25 – 5 16 – 2 2
3 Saint Mary’s WCC 75.8% 22 25 – 4 15 – 3 3
4 Dayton A10 75.4% 19 22 – 7 14 – 4 8 +4
5 Middle Tennessee CUSA 73.5% 21 25 – 5 16 – 2 7 +2
6 VCU A10 72.9% 21 24 – 7 14 – 4 10 +4
7 Rhode Island A10 72.6% 16 20 – 10 12 – 6 11 +4
8 Vermont AE 72.2% 22 24 – 6 15 – 1 5 -3
9 Belmont OVC 69.8% 18 20 – 6 14 – 2 4 -5
10 Illinois St. MVC 68.9% 20 23 – 6 16 – 2 13 +3
11 Bucknell Pat 68.0% 20 23 – 8 15 – 3 12 +1
12 Princeton Ivy 68.0% 14 18 – 8 12 – 2 9 -3
13 UT Arlington SB 67.5% 17 21 – 8 13 – 5 15 +2
14 Monmouth MAAC 66.7% 22 25 – 6 17 – 3 NR
15 UNC Wilmington CAA 65.7% 20 23 – 7 13 – 5 14 -1

Dropped Out: New Mexico State (6)

Week 15 College Basketball Top 25

Posted: February 13, 2017 in NCAA

Gonzaga’s updated chance of going undefeated on the regular season: 76.2%

Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 92.3% 26 30 – 0 18 – 0 1 0
2 SMU Amer 83.7% 22 26 – 5 16 – 2 2 0
3 Villanova BE 83.1% 24 28 – 3 15 – 3 3 0
4 Florida SEC 82.1% 19 24 – 7 14 – 4 12 8
5 Wichita St. MVC 81.7% 22 25 – 5 16 – 2 4 -1
6 Oregon P12 81.4% 21 25 – 5 15 – 3 11 5
7 Kansas B12 80.9% 22 26 – 5 14 – 4 13 6
8 Louisville ACC 80.6% 20 24 – 7 12 – 6 7 -1
9 Virginia ACC 80.6% 18 22 – 8 12 – 6 15 6
10 Purdue B10 80.0% 20 24 – 7 13 – 5 10 0
11 West Virginia B12 80.0% 20 24 – 7 12 – 6 16 5
12 Baylor B12 79.6% 21 25 – 5 13 – 5 20 8
13 Cincinnati Amer 79.4% 22 26 – 5 15 – 3 6 -7
14 Kentucky SEC 79.1% 20 24 – 7 14 – 4 14 0
15 UCLA P12 78.2% 23 27 – 4 14 – 4 8 -7
16 Wisconsin B10 77.5% 21 25 – 6 14 – 4 5 -11
17 Florida St. ACC 76.4% 21 24 – 7 12 – 6 24 7
18 North Carolina ACC 75.8% 20 23 – 8 12 – 6 25 7
19 Saint Mary’s WCC 75.7% 22 25 – 4 15 – 3 9 -10
20 Arizona P12 75.4% 23 26 – 5 15 – 3 17 -3
21 Dayton A10 74.9% 18 22 – 7 14 – 4 21 0
22 Duke ACC 74.6% 20 23 – 8 11 – 7 26 4
23 Creighton BE 74.3% 20 24 – 6 12 – 6 31 8
24 VCU A10 73.9% 20 24 – 7 14 – 4 27 3
25 Middle Tennessee CUSA 73.6% 21 25 – 5 16 – 2 23 -2

Dropped out: Vermont, Belmont, New Mexico State

Week 14 Mid Major 15

Posted: February 8, 2017 in NCAA

The Mid Major 15 is a ranking of the top 15 mid-major teams in the country. Conferences excluded from these rankings are the power-7: ACC, American, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. The teams that appear on this list are likely good names to know when searching for Cinderella come March. Although, Gonzaga will likely be a top seed in March.

Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 94.7% 24 29 – 1 17 – 1 1
2 Wichita St. MVC 83.1% 20 25 – 5 16 – 2 3 +1
3 Saint Mary’s WCC 81.4% 21 25 – 4 15 – 3 2 -1
4 Belmont OVC 78.3% 17 21 – 5 15 – 1 6 +2
5 Vermont AE 77.8% 20 24 – 6 15 – 1 8 +3
6 New Mexico St. WAC 77.6% 19 24 – 3 13 – 1 7 +1
7 Middle Tennessee CUSA 76.8% 19 24 – 6 15 – 3 4 -3
8 Dayton A10 76.1% 17 22 – 7 14 – 4 9 +1
9 Princeton Ivy 75.8% 12 18 – 8 12 – 2 11 +2
10 VCU A10 75.1% 18 23 – 8 13 – 5 10
11 Rhode Island A10 72.6% 16 21 – 9 13 – 5 NR
12 Bucknell Pat 72.4% 19 23 – 8 15 – 3 15 +3
13 Illinois St. MVC 72.4% 19 23 – 6 16 – 2 5 -8
14 UNC Wilmington CAA 72.2% 19 24 – 6 14 – 4 14
15 UT Arlington SB 71.0% 15 21 – 8 13 – 5 NR

Dropped Out: Nevada (12), Valparaiso (13

Week 14 College Basketball Top 25

Posted: February 6, 2017 in NCAA
Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 94.7% 24 29 – 1 17 – 1 1 0
2 SMU Amer 86.2% 20 26 – 5 16 – 2 3 1
3 Villanova BE 83.6% 22 27 – 4 14 – 4 4 1
4 Wichita St. MVC 83.3% 20 25 – 5 16 – 2 11 7
5 Wisconsin B10 82.7% 20 26 – 5 15 – 3 8 3
6 Cincinnati Amer 82.6% 21 27 – 4 16 – 2 9 3
7 Louisville ACC 82.6% 19 24 – 7 12 – 6 13 6
8 UCLA P12 81.5% 21 26 – 5 13 – 5 17 9
9 Saint Mary’s WCC 81.4% 21 25 – 4 15 – 3 10 1
10 Purdue B10 81.4% 19 24 – 7 13 – 5 16 6
11 Oregon P12 81.3% 20 25 – 5 15 – 3 7 -4
12 Florida SEC 80.5% 17 23 – 8 13 – 5 21 9
13 Kansas B12 80.3% 20 25 – 6 13 – 5 5 -8
14 Kentucky SEC 79.8% 18 24 – 7 14 – 4 2 -12
15 Virginia ACC 79.7% 17 22 – 8 12 – 6 15 0
16 West Virginia B12 79.0% 18 23 – 8 11 – 7 12 -4
17 Arizona P12 78.9% 21 26 – 5 15 – 3 6 -11
18 Belmont OVC 78.3% 17 21 – 5 15 – 1 24 6
19 New Mexico St. WAC 77.6% 19 24 – 3 13 – 1 22 3
20 Baylor B12 77.6% 19 24 – 6 12 – 6 14 -6
21 Dayton A10 77.5% 16 22 – 7 14 – 4 26 5
22 Vermont AE 77.3% 19 24 – 6 15 – 1 23 1
23 Middle Tennessee CUSA 76.7% 19 24 – 6 15 – 3 19 -4
24 Florida St. ACC 76.2% 20 24 – 7 12 – 6 33 9
25 North Carolina ACC 75.8% 20 24 – 7 13 – 5 18 -7

Dropped Out: Northwestern, Illinois St.

Super Bowl LI Preview

Posted: February 5, 2017 in NFL
Projections
Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Sun 5:30 New England Patriots 52.0% Atlanta Falcons 48.0%
Picks of the Week

Since the playoffs are upon us I will not be picking upsets and locks and games of the week and will instead pick each game. I was 9-5-1 in picking games not considered locks or upsets in the regular season. I am 10-0 thus far in the playoffs.

When the Patriots have the Ball

The Falcons defense, as a whole, has not been good this season. Overall they rank 27th in the NFL-19th against the pass and 29th against the run (DVOA). They have been playing better as of late, but I don’t think anyone would say Atlanta has a good defense. The Patriots have an outstanding offense, ranking 2nd in the NFL in DVOA. They have the 2nd ranked passing offense and the 17th ranked rushing offense. Other than general ranks, the Falcons defense is young while the Patriots offense is obviously well experienced. I think this is a game where the Patriots try and attack the Falcons in the middle of the field with a strong ground game. I expect Blount to have a big game if the Patriots are going to win this. Obviously, Tom Brady will do his thing as well.

When the Falcons have the Ball

The Patriots defense ranked 16th overall in DVOA, 23rd against the pass and 4th against the run. They have the #1 overall scoring defense but this defense has feasted on a weak schedule and early leads. Meanwhile the Falcons have the best offense in the NFL with the #1 overall passing offense and the 7th ranked rushing offense. I like the Falcons a lot in this matchup, I think they have enough schemes and weapons that they will still be able to move the ball. Belichick likes to take away the best/most productive scheme/player so I would expect the Patriots to try and take away Julio Jones. But the most dangerous scheme the Falcons have will be Freeman and Coleman coming out of the backfield and I am not sure if the Patriots have the personnel to keep those two in check. Additionally, Julio has been producing against double teams all season long and MVP Matt Ryan is great.

The Pick

I think both teams get off to a fast start on offense and the second and third quarters take more of the traditional hard fought Super Bowl game. I really like what the Falcons are doing right now but I also really like the Patriots experience and overall coaching. I think this game comes down to a late drive in the fourth quarter, but I think the team on defense at the end of the game wins. Falcons 34 Patriots 31

Accuracy

Below is a chart showing the accuracy of my projections. The number to watch is how close actual games right is to expected right. The closer those numbers are the more accurate the projections are. Thus far, my projections have slightly overestimated teams odds of winning games. Teams with a 61-80% chance of winning have still under performed, but it is getting much better. The current 10.7 game spread is down to just 4.8% off, and hopefully can continue its improvement through the rest of the season. I began monitoring how the simulator has performed with no preseason projections factored in (post week 6). Thus far, post Week 6 results look like this:

Expected 115.9 actual 116, 0.1% off. (66.7% of games picked correctly)

My belief is that the problem is mostly due to early season surprises with the simulation itself only being slightly at fault, so far that has been very accurate-I will look to improve preseason ranking system in hopes to have more success throughout the entire season.

W L T %
81+% 31 6 0 83.8%
61-80% 95 57 1 62.4%
51-60% 41 34 1 54.6%
          167      97              2 63.2%
Expected Right     177.69 4.0%
    (10.69)

Week 13 Mid Major 15

Posted: February 1, 2017 in NCAA

The Mid Major 15 is a ranking of the top 15 mid-major teams in the country. Conferences excluded from these rankings are the power-7: ACC, American, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. The teams that appear on this list are likely good names to know when searching for Cinderella come March. Although, Gonzaga will likely be a top seed in March.

All of the teams on this list happen to be very good teams and I am beginning to expect that this tournament could be much crazier than past years. Anyways, Gonzaga holds on to the top spot with Saint Mary’s retaking the #2 spot from Wichita State. Middle Tennessee and Illinois State flip flop the 4 and 5 spots, Belmont (12), New Mexico State (17)  and Vermont (10) all continued their winning streaks and have now won a combined 39 games in a row. Those teams are ranked 6, 7 and 8. New entrants to the top 15 are Nevada, Valparaiso and Bucknell.

Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 95.0% 22 29 – 1 17 – 1 1
2 Saint Mary’s WCC 82.3% 19 25 – 4 15 – 3 3 +1
3 Wichita St. MVC 82.0% 18 24 – 6 15 – 3 2 -1
4 Middle Tennessee CUSA 78.9% 18 25 – 5 16 – 2 5 +1
5 Illinois St. MVC 77.9% 17 23 – 6 16 – 2 4 -1
6 Belmont OVC 77.5% 16 21 – 5 15 – 1 14 +8
7 New Mexico St. WAC 76.9% 18 24 – 3 13 – 1 10 +3
8 Vermont AE 76.5% 17 24 – 6 15 – 1 11 +2
9 Dayton A10 76.1% 15 21 – 8 13 – 5 7 -2
10 VCU A10 74.7% 16 23 – 8 13 – 5 9 +1
11 Princeton Ivy 72.5% 9 17 – 9 11 – 3 13 +2
12 Nevada MWC 71.4% 18 24 – 7 13 – 5 NR
13 Valparaiso Horz 71.2% 17 23 – 7 14 – 4 NR
14 UNC Wilmington CAA 71.2% 18 24 – 6 14 – 4 6 -8
15 Bucknell Pat 71.1% 17 23 – 8 15 – 3 NR

Dropped Out: Louisiana Tech (8). BYU (12), Rhode Island (15)