Archive for March, 2017

2017 NCAA Tournament Odds

Posted: March 12, 2017 in NCAA

Please note that these odds are based on the rankings that can be found on the college basketball tab. These rankings are not reflective of any injuries. I am aware that some of the odds for Mid-Major teams may seem high and I will investigate how to better adjust for SOS in next year’s rankings. Without further ado:

Seed Team R32 S16 E8 F4 Championship Champion
1W Gonzaga 87% 70% 51% 38% 27% 18.7%
10S Wichita St. 69% 46% 30% 21% 14% 8.3%
1E Villanova 85% 57% 35% 21% 11% 6.5%
3MW Oregon 74% 47% 29% 17% 10% 4.9%
6E SMU 61% 40% 27% 16% 8% 4.7%
1MW Kansas 75% 50% 27% 15% 7% 3.4%
2S Kentucky 75% 34% 19% 12% 7% 3.3%
6S Cincinnati 71% 42% 20% 12% 7% 3.2%
1S North Carolina 74% 49% 28% 13% 7% 3.1%
4E Florida 63% 37% 19% 11% 5% 2.7%
7W Saint Mary’s 58% 34% 22% 10% 5% 2.6%
2MW Louisville 73% 41% 21% 11% 5% 2.3%
3S UCLA 73% 38% 17% 10% 5% 2.3%
2W Arizona 68% 34% 21% 9% 5% 2.3%
12S Middle Tennessee 62% 37% 21% 10% 5% 2.2%
4MW Purdue 52% 29% 17% 9% 4% 1.9%
2E Duke 66% 40% 19% 9% 4% 1.7%
12W Princeton 57% 30% 12% 6% 3% 1.5%
13MW Vermont 48% 26% 14% 7% 3% 1.5%
4W West Virginia 55% 29% 11% 6% 3% 1.5%
3W Florida St. 61% 37% 18% 7% 3% 1.4%
3E Baylor 60% 26% 14% 7% 3% 1.3%
11MW Rhode Island 55% 25% 13% 7% 3% 1.2%
7MW Michigan 53% 28% 13% 6% 3% 1.1%
5MW Iowa St. 51% 24% 13% 6% 3% 1.1%
11E Providence/USC 39% 21% 12% 6% 2% 1.1%
8E Wisconsin 61% 26% 12% 6% 2% 1.0%
5E Virginia 51% 24% 11% 5% 2% 1.0%
12MW Nevada 49% 22% 11% 5% 2% 0.9%
10W VCU 42% 21% 12% 4% 2% 0.9%
12E UNC Wilmington 49% 23% 10% 5% 2% 0.8%
13W Bucknell 45% 22% 8% 4% 2% 0.8%
4S Butler 54% 25% 12% 5% 2% 0.7%
10MW Oklahoma St. 47% 23% 10% 4% 2% 0.7%
7S Dayton 31% 14% 7% 3% 2% 0.6%
5W Notre Dame 43% 20% 7% 3% 1.4% 0.6%
6MW Creighton 45% 19% 9% 4% 2% 0.6%
10E Marquette 54% 26% 10% 4% 1.4% 0.5%
5S Minnesota 38% 19% 9% 3% 1.2% 0.4%
13S Winthrop 46% 20% 9% 3% 1.2% 0.4%
9MW Michigan St. 53% 22% 9% 3% 1.2% 0.4%
13E East Tennessee St. 37% 16% 7% 3% 1.0% 0.4%
8S Arkansas 53% 22% 10% 3% 1.2% 0.4%
9W Vanderbilt 55% 14% 6% 2% 1.0% 0.4%
6W Maryland 54% 24% 9% 3% 1.0% 0.3%
14E New Mexico St. 40% 14% 6% 2% 0.8% 0.3%
7E South Carolina 46% 20% 7% 3% 0.8% 0.3%
14W Florida Gulf Coast 39% 20% 7% 2% 0.7% 0.3%
9S Seton Hall 47% 19% 8% 2% 0.8% 0.3%
8MW Miami FL 47% 18% 7% 2% 0.8% 0.2%
11W Xavier 46% 19% 7% 2% 0.6% 0.2%
9E Virginia Tech 39% 13% 5% 2% 0.5% 0.2%
8W Northwestern 45% 10% 4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
15W North Dakota 32% 11% 5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.14%
15E Troy 34% 15% 5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.13%
11S Kansas St./Wake Forest 29% 11% 3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.12%
14MW Iona 26% 9% 3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.10%
16S Texas Southern 26% 10% 3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.05%
14S Kent St. 27% 8% 2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.05%
15MW Jacksonville St. 27% 9% 2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.05%
15S Northern Kentucky 25% 6% 2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.04%
16MW North Carolina Central/UC Davis 25% 10% 3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.04%
16W South Dakota St. 13% 5% 2% 0.5% 0.14% 0.04%
16E Mount St. Mary’s/New Orleans 15% 4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.04% 0.007%
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Week 18 College Basketball Top 25

Posted: March 6, 2017 in NCAA
Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 89.3% 30 1 0
2 Wichita St. MVC 85.5% 29 2 0
3 SMU Amer 82.5% 27 3 0
4 Villanova BE 82.0% 28 4 0
5 Florida SEC 81.3% 24 9 4
6 Oregon P12 81.2% 26 5 -1
7 Cincinnati Amer 79.9% 27 10 3
8 Kansas B12 79.5% 28 6 -2
9 Kentucky SEC 79.0% 26 8 -1
10 UCLA P12 78.5% 28 7 -3
11 Saint Mary’s WCC 78.3% 27 15 4
12 Purdue B10 78.1% 25 14 2
13 West Virginia B12 77.8% 24 11 -2
14 North Carolina ACC 77.4% 25 12 -2
15 Louisville ACC 76.9% 24 13 -2
16 Baylor B12 75.7% 24 19 3
17 Vermont AE 75.4% 26 20 3
18 Princeton Ivy 75.1% 20 21 3
19 Virginia ACC 75.0% 21 22 3
20 Arizona P12 74.9% 27 17 -3
21 Middle Tennessee CUSA 74.2% 26 18 -3
22 Dayton A10 74.1% 23 16 -6
23 Florida St. ACC 73.8% 24 23 0
24 Duke ACC 73.1% 23 25 1
25 VCU A10 72.3% 24 29 4

Dropped Out:Butler (24)

Week 17 Mid Major 15

Posted: March 1, 2017 in NCAA

The Mid Major 15 is a ranking of the top 15 mid-major teams in the country. Conferences excluded from these rankings are the power-7: ACC, American, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. The teams that appear on this list are likely good names to know when searching for Cinderella come March. Although, Gonzaga will be a top seed in March.

Rank Team Conf POWER Wins Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Gonzaga WCC 89.1% 29 29 – 1 17 – 1 1
2 Wichita St. MVC 84.3% 26 26 – 4 17 – 1 2
3 Saint Mary’s WCC 77.8% 26 26 – 3 16 – 2 3
4 Dayton A10 75.5% 22 23 – 6 15 – 3 5 +1
5 Middle Tennessee CUSA 75.1% 24 26 – 4 17 – 1 4 -1
6 Vermont AE 74.8% 25 26 – 5 17 – 0 7 +1
7 Princeton Ivy 74.2% 18 20 – 6 14 – 0 8 -1
8 UNC Wilmington CAA 72.2% 24 24 – 5 15 – 3 NR
9 VCU A10 72.1% 23 24 – 7 14 – 4 6 -3
10 Bucknell Pat 71.7% 23 23 – 8 15 – 3 11 +1
11 Rhode Island A10 70.8% 19 20 – 10 12 – 6 9 -2
12 UT Arlington SB 70.1% 21 22 – 7 14 – 4 12
13 Monmouth MAAC 69.6% 26 26 – 5 18 – 2 10 -3
14 Louisiana Tech CUSA 68.7% 19 20 – 9 14 – 4 15 +1
15 UNC Asheville BSth 68.6% 21 21 – 8 15 – 3 NR

Dropped Out: Belmont (13), Illinois St. (14)