Archive for September, 2017

Week 4 NFL Preview

Posted: September 27, 2017 in NFL

Projections

Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Green Bay Packers 56.5% Chicago Bears 43.5%
Sun 8:30 Miami Dolphins 39.5% New Orleans Saints 60.5%
Sun 12:00 Atlanta Falcons 72.5% Buffalo Bills 27.5%
Sun 12:00 Baltimore Ravens 61.0% Pittsburgh Steelers 39.0%
Sun 12:00 Cleveland Browns 45.8% Cincinnati Bengals 54.2%
Sun 12:00 Dallas Cowboys 66.5% Los Angeles Rams 33.5%
Sun 12:00 Houston Texans 41.0% Tennessee Titans 59.0%
Sun 12:00 Minnesota Vikings 45.8% Detroit Lions 54.2%
Sun 12:00 New England Patriots 54.0% Carolina Panthers 46.0%
Sun 12:00 New York Jets 38.9% Jacksonville Jaguars 61.1%
Sun 3:05 Arizona Cardinals 65.6% San Francisco 49ers 34.4%
Sun 3:05 Los Angeles Chargers 35.1% Philadelphia Eagles 64.9%
Sun 3:05 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 63.7% New York Giants 36.3%
Sun 3:25 Denver Broncos 47.9% Oakland Raiders 52.1%
Sun 7:30 Seattle Seahawks 68.8% Indianapolis Colts 31.2%
Mon 7:30 Kansas City Chiefs 74.2% Washington Redskins 25.8%

Picks of the Week

Game of the week (1-2) – Steelers vs. Ravens is a very intriguing match-up between the two front-runners for the AFC North. Both teams are coming off losses- Steelers losing to the Bears in OT and the Ravens getting destroyed by the Jaguars. Winner of this game will move to 3-1 and have a 1 game lead in the division. Despite their performance last week, the Ravens defense still great – and Big Ben’s road struggles of late are worth noting in this game. Ravens 16 Steelers 14

Lock of the week (2-1) – Seahawks over Colts. The Seahawks have struggled on offense this season but I will take a home Seattle team over Jacoby Brissett any day. Seahawks 20 Colts 7

Upset of the week (2-1) – Texans over Titans. Deshaun Watson looked pretty good last week and the Texans Defense can do enough to slow down the Titans offense for the team to win. Texans 24 Titans 21

Accuracy

Overall W L T %
81+% 31 6 0 83.8%
61-80% 113 66 1 63.1%
51-60% 53 42 1 55.7%
           197          114                   2 63.3%
Expected Right        209.0 5.7%

 

2017 W L T %
81+% 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
61-80% 18 9 0 66.7%
51-60% 11 9 0 55.0%
              29               18                – 61.7%
Expected Right         29.42

 

Advertisements

Week 4 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: September 25, 2017 in NFL

The NFL season is now three weeks old and we are getting two a point where some teams are panicking, some teams are cruising and for the most part: some teams are still figuring themselves out. There were a handful of upsets this week. I am guessing most of you would have laughed if I told you that the Bears would beat the Steelers in week 3. The Texans stuck with the Patriots for an entire game and were actually in position to win before TB12 worked his magic. The Jets just beat up on the Dolphins. The Bengals fired their offensive coordinator and were up for a majority of the game IN Green Bay. Even more crazy stuff happened. This was a great week for the NFL.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Win Div. Make Playoffs Make SB Win SB Preseason Rank Difference
1 Kansas City Chiefs 74.5% 12.7 93.5% 98.4% 36.8% 24.9%                  5 4
2 Atlanta Falcons 72.2% 12.2 89.9% 93.8% 36.5% 20.1%                  2 0
3 Detroit Lions 61.4% 9.9 63.2% 66.2% 11.2% 4.7%                28 25
4 Baltimore Ravens 60.3% 10.1 67.4% 72.4% 11.2% 5.6%                13 9
5 Philadelphia Eagles 60.2% 10.0 51.2% 68.7% 12.2% 5.2%                  8 3
6 Carolina Panthers 59.8% 9.1 8.9% 51.2% 6.6% 2.5%                11 5
7 New England Patriots 58.8% 9.6 58.3% 61.7% 7.8% 3.7%                  1 -6
8 Oakland Raiders 57.2% 8.9 4.5% 47.6% 4.7% 2.1%                18 10
9 Dallas Cowboys 56.9% 9.0 23.0% 49.7% 6.2% 2.4%                  6 -3
10 Tennessee Titans 56.1% 10.2 47.3% 73.8% 11.8% 5.9%                23 13
11 Jacksonville Jaguars 55.9% 10.3 51.5% 76.0% 12.7% 6.5%                24 13
12 Washington Redskins 55.4% 9.2 25.7% 52.1% 6.8% 2.6%                20 8
13 Buffalo Bills 54.6% 9.0 40.3% 50.4% 5.3% 2.3%                21 8
14 Pittsburgh Steelers 54.3% 9.0 32.4% 50.4% 5.2% 2.3%                  4 -10
15 Minnesota Vikings 52.3% 8.5 20.3% 38.7% 4.0% 1.5%                15 0
16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 50.6% 7.4 0.8% 21.9% 1.8% <1%                16 0
17 Denver Broncos 50.1% 8.3 2.0% 35.8% 2.9% 1.2%                10 -7
18 Green Bay Packers 49.9% 8.1 13.0% 31.3% 2.9% <1%                  3 -15
19 New Orleans Saints 49.1% 7.1 0.4% 16.1% 1.1% <1%                14 -5
20 Chicago Bears 48.4% 7.1 3.5% 17.0% 1.2% <1%                26 6
21 Los Angeles Rams 44.8% 8.0 33.7% 30.0% 2.7% <1%                29 8
22 Seattle Seahawks 43.7% 7.0 13.7% 16.0% 1.1% <1%                  7 -15
23 Arizona Cardinals 43.1% 7.2 52.4% 42.8% 5.6% 2.3%                  9 -14
24 Houston Texans 42.0% 7.0 1.1% 15.4% <1% <1%                25 1
25 New York Giants 41.7% 5.4 0.1% 3.4% <1% <1%                17 -8
26 Los Angeles Chargers 40.1% 4.8 0.001% 1.8% <1% <1%                22 -4
27 New York Jets 39.8% 5.9 0.8% 5.6% <1% <1%                30 3
28 Cincinnati Bengals 39.5% 5.3 0.2% 3.0% <1% <1%                12 -16
29 Miami Dolphins 38.6% 5.7 0.6% 5.0% <1% <1%                27 -2
30 San Francisco 49ers 32.7% 4.5 0.2% 1.1% <1% <1%                31 1
31 Cleveland Browns 31.0% 4.2 0.02% <1% <1% <1%                32 1
32 Indianapolis Colts 30.1% 5.0 0.01% 2.0% <1% <1%                19 -13

Notes:

  • Preseason projections account for 40% of current rating, while on-play performance accounts for 60% of rating (60-40 for Bucs/Dolphins)
  • Lions have greatly outperformed their preseason projection (up 25 spots from 28 to 3). I was expecting some regression from the Lions after making the playoffs a year ago but they should probably be 3-0 right now.
  • Ravens are ranked 4, even after their miserable performance in London. This has a lot to do with how dominant their first two games were and how highly ranked they were to begin the season. Performances like last week will send them spiraling down the rankings.
  • The NFC West is really bad. Like all teams rank lower than 20. I could see a 7 win playoff team coming out of that mess.
  • Most underwhelming teams so far: Bengals, Seahawks, Packers, Cardinals, Colts and Steelers. I think Packers and Steelers have what it takes to turn it around.
  • Most overwhelming teams so far: Lions, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders and Ravens. I think the Titans and Jaguars both have what it takes to continue their strong start to the season. I would be worried if I were a Ravens fan.

Week 3 NFL Preview

Posted: September 21, 2017 in NFL

Projections

Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 San Francisco 49ers 41.5% Los Angeles Rams 58.5%
Sun 8:30 Jacksonville Jaguars 29.6% Baltimore Ravens 70.4%
Sun 12:00 Buffalo Bills 34.5% Denver Broncos 65.5%
Sun 12:00 Carolina Panthers 74.8% New Orleans Saints 25.2%
Sun 12:00 Chicago Bears 25.5% Pittsburgh Steelers 74.5%
Sun 12:00 Detroit Lions 37.2% Atlanta Falcons 62.8%
Sun 12:00 Indianapolis Colts 78.0% Cleveland Browns 22.0%
Sun 12:00 Minnesota Vikings 55.6% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44.4%
Sun 12:00 New England Patriots 69.1% Houston Texans 30.9%
Sun 12:00 New York Jets 35.6% Miami Dolphins 64.4%
Sun 12:00 Philadelphia Eagles 68.9% New York Giants 31.1%
Sun 3:05 Tennessee Titans 42.0% Seattle Seahawks 58.0%
Sun 3:25 Green Bay Packers 66.4% Cincinnati Bengals 33.6%
Sun 3:25 Los Angeles Chargers 40.3% Kansas City Chiefs 59.7%
Sun 7:30 Washington Redskins 34.8% Oakland Raiders 65.2%
Mon 7:30 Arizona Cardinals 51.6% Dallas Cowboys 48.4%

Picks of the Week

Game of the week (1-1) – I selected Vikings-Buccaneers as the game of the week. This is a sneaky good match-up of two very talented defenses. The Vikings might be without starting QB Sam Bradford for a second consecutive week. The Buccaneers might be without Kwon Alexander so both teams may not be at 100%. I think the Vikings offensive line is still putting some pieces together and I think the Buccaneers have the better overall team. Buccaneers 19 Vikings 17

Lock of the week (1-1) – I typically try and stay away from divisional rival games but the match-up of the Eagles and Giants is too enticing. The best unit on the Eagles is their pass rush and defensive line and they are going up against one of the worst offensive lines I have ever seen. I expect Eli to continue running for his life in Week 3 as the Giants drop to 0-3. Eagles 24 Giants 9

Upset of the week (2-0) – I will take the Browns over the Colts. The Colts are unquestionably not the same without Andrew Luck on the field and their roster is worse than the Browns without him. The Colts are huge favorites (in my probabilities) because the Browns are just viewed that poorly. I still think the Browns can win a home game against the Colts though. Browns 21 Colts 17

Accuracy

 

Overall W L T %
81+% 31 6 0 83.8%
61-80% 108 60 1 64.2%
51-60% 50 41 1 54.9%
           189          107                   2 63.8%

 

2017 W L T %
81+% 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
61-80% 13 3 0 81.3%
51-60% 8 7 0 53.3%
              21               10                – 67.7%

Week 3 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: September 18, 2017 in NFL

The first [un]official ranking of the NFL season comes as a partially incomplete ranking. Due to Hurricane Irma and the week one “bye” between for the Dolphins and the Buccaneers, four teams are unable to have an updated ranking: Dolphins, Buccaneers, Bears and Chargers. I included their preseason ranking in order to show them in the current order of rankings. At the conclusion of next week I will have the first official full rankings of all NFL teams. For now here you go. Additionally, projected records and playoff odds were excluded from this weeks rankings due to the lack of data available for the aforementioned teams.

Rank Team Name POWER
1 Atlanta Falcons 76.7%
2 Pittsburgh Steelers 73.9%
3 Denver Broncos 69.4%
4 Baltimore Ravens 69.3%
5 Carolina Panthers 65.2%
6 New England Patriots 64.4%
7 Kansas City Chiefs 62.7%
8 Detroit Lions 61.5%
9 Oakland Raiders 60.6%
10 Seattle Seahawks 58.3%
11 Green Bay Packers 58.0%
12 Dallas Cowboys 56.5%
13 Philadelphia Eagles 53.4%
14 Arizona Cardinals 53.1%
15 Minnesota Vikings 51.5%
16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 50.9%
17 Houston Texans 49.8%
18 Buffalo Bills 49.4%
19 Jacksonville Jaguars 48.7%
20 Los Angeles Chargers 48.1%
21 Los Angeles Rams 47.6%
22 Cincinnati Bengals 46.1%
23 Tennessee Titans 45.3%
24 Chicago Bears 44.2%
25 Miami Dolphins 44.0%
26 New Orleans Saints 43.5%
27 Washington Redskins 40.1%
28 Indianapolis Colts 40.1%
29 New York Giants 38.7%
30 San Francisco 49ers 34.5%
31 New York Jets 26.2%
32 Cleveland Browns 18.8%

 

Notes:

  • Panthers at five comes as a bit of surprise to me but they had a decent enough preseason ranking and have performed well in the first two games to move up into the top five.
  • Cardinals at fourteen is very surprising based on how they have looked so far this season. My guess is that they will fall off sharply over the next few weeks if their performance continues.
  • Ravens are ranked four at the moment but have played a very easy schedule. They have been dominate winning by a combined 34 points over two games (44-10).
  • One team from the lowest ten teams to make the playoffs: Dolphins
  • One team from the top ten teams to miss the playoffs: Lions

NFL Week 2 Preview

Posted: September 13, 2017 in NFL

Projections

Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Cincinnati Bengals 62.9% Houston Texans 37.1%
Sun 12:00 Baltimore Ravens 78.6% Cleveland Browns 21.4%
Sun 12:00 Carolina Panthers 61.7% Buffalo Bills 38.3%
Sun 12:00 Indianapolis Colts 48.2% Arizona Cardinals 51.8%
Sun 12:00 Jacksonville Jaguars 54.9% Tennessee Titans 45.1%
Sun 12:00 Kansas City Chiefs 58.3% Philadelphia Eagles 41.7%
Sun 12:00 New Orleans Saints 35.5% New England Patriots 64.5%
Sun 12:00 Pittsburgh Steelers 64.9% Minnesota Vikings 35.1%
Sun 12:00 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 61.5% Chicago Bears 38.5%
Sun 3:05 Los Angeles Chargers 59.1% Miami Dolphins 40.9%
Sun 3:05 Oakland Raiders 66.8% New York Jets 33.2%
Sun 3:25 Denver Broncos 50.9% Dallas Cowboys 49.1%
Sun 3:25 Los Angeles Rams 44.1% Washington Redskins 55.9%
Sun 3:25 Seattle Seahawks 74.5% San Francisco 49ers 25.5%
Sun 7:30 Atlanta Falcons 60.2% Green Bay Packers 39.8%
Mon 7:30 New York Giants 62.2% Detroit Lions 37.8%

 

Picks of the Week

Game of the week (0-1) – Packers visit the Falcons on Sunday Night in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game. The Falcons struggled in the first week of the season on the road in Chicago while the Packers defeated the Seahawks in their home opener. The Falcons win in a surprisingly low scoring game. Falcons 21 Packers 17

Lock of the week (0-1) – Raiders handle Jets with ease and improve to 2-0. Raiders 35 Jets 17

Upset of the week (1-0) – Lions over Giants. The Giants did not look like themselves in the season opener against the Cowboys and Stafford and the Lions offense came alive late against the Cardinals. I think the Lions can go into New York (Jersey) and win this one. Lions 27 Giants 23

Accuracy

Overall W L T %
81+% 31 6 0 83.8%
61-80% 101 58 1 63.4%
51-60% 45 39 1 53.5%
           177          103                   2 63.1%
Expected Right      188.64

 

2017 W L T %
81+% 0 0 0 N/A
61-80% 6 1 0 85.7%
51-60% 3 5 0 37.5%
                9                 6                – 60.0%
Expected Right           9.10

NFL Week 1 Preview

Posted: September 7, 2017 in NFL

Projections

 

Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:30 New England Patriots 67.4% Kansas City Chiefs 32.6%
Sun 12:00 Buffalo Bills 65.7% New York Jets 34.3%
Sun 12:00 Chicago Bears 32.1% Atlanta Falcons 67.9%
Sun 12:00 Cincinnati Bengals 55.4% Baltimore Ravens 44.6%
Sun 12:00 Cleveland Browns 22.4% Pittsburgh Steelers 77.6%
Sun 12:00 Detroit Lions 42.0% Arizona Cardinals 58.0%
Sun 12:00 Houston Texans 54.0% Jacksonville Jaguars 46.0%
Sun 12:00 Tennessee Titans 52.4% Oakland Raiders 47.6%
Sun 12:00 Washington Redskins 47.6% Philadelphia Eagles 52.4%
Sun 3:05 Los Angeles Rams 44.0% Indianapolis Colts 56.0%
Sun 3:25 Green Bay Packers 59.2% Seattle Seahawks 40.8%
Sun 3:25 San Francisco 49ers 36.3% Carolina Panthers 63.7%
Sun 7:30 Dallas Cowboys 64.0% New York Giants 36.0%
Mon 6:10 Minnesota Vikings 54.1% New Orleans Saints 45.9%
Mon 9:20 Denver Broncos 62.4% Los Angeles Chargers 37.6%

 

Picks of the Week

The week 1 game of the week (0-0 in 2017, 9-5-1 overall) is the Titans hosting the Raiders. Both teams have younger quarterbacks with high expectations and both teams are being consistently picked to win their division. I like the home team in this one. Titans 31 Raiders 27 

Lock of the week (0-0 in 2017, 14-2 overall)- Patriots over the Chiefs. Although I think the Chiefs are a great team, I don’t see the defending champions losing on opening night of the NFL season. Patriots 28 Chiefs 17

Upset of the week (0-0 in 2017, 4-12-1 overall)- Rams over the Colts. I have a lot of questions about this Colts team and the absence of Andrew Luck will be seen in this game. Rams 21 Colts 17

Accuracy

Overall W L T %
81+% 31 6 0 83.8%
61-80% 95 57 1 62.4%
51-60% 42 34 1 55.2%
           168             97                   2 63.3%
Expected Right      188.64

Final Preseason Rankings

Posted: September 5, 2017 in NFL

Cut day 2017 was quite the event that resulted in several big names leaving their teams and joining other teams. I have updated rosters and here are the final preseason rankings.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Win Div. Make Playoffs Make SB Win SB
1 New England Patriots 71.6% 11.3 92.2% 95.0% 30.8% 18.9%
2 Atlanta Falcons 67.2% 10.3 66.1% 76.1% 19.4% 10.4%
3 Green Bay Packers 62.4% 9.7 65.9% 65.4% 13.7% 7.0%
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 62.3% 9.9 51.6% 72.5% 15.0% 8.0%
5 Kansas City Chiefs 59.9% 9.2 49.3% 58.5% 9.7% 4.8%
6 Dallas Cowboys 59.8% 9.1 42.4% 53.4% 9.2% 4.4%
7 Seattle Seahawks 58.2% 9.3 47.7% 57.2% 10.5% 5.1%
8 Philadelphia Eagles 56.6% 8.8 34.8% 48.3% 7.7% 3.6%
9 Arizona Cardinals 56.1% 9.3 49.6% 58.4% 10.9% 5.3%
10 Denver Broncos 55.8% 8.5 29.8% 44.9% 6.0% 2.8%
11 Carolina Panthers 55.5% 8.5 16.6% 41.9% 6.0% 2.7%
12 Cincinnati Bengals 54.3% 8.8 23.1% 50.4% 7.3% 3.5%
13 Baltimore Ravens 53.9% 8.9 25.3% 52.6% 7.9% 3.9%
14 New Orleans Saints 53.2% 8.2 11.9% 36.2% 4.7% 2.1%
15 Minnesota Vikings 52.2% 8.3 25.9% 38.7% 5.3% 2.3%
16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 50.9% 7.5 5.4% 25.5% 2.8% 1.1%
17 New York Giants 50.6% 7.8 13.6% 30.2% 3.6% 1.5%
18 Oakland Raiders 49.9% 7.4 10.2% 25.7% 2.5% 1.1%
19 Indianapolis Colts 49.4% 8.1 32.2% 37.7% 4.5% 2.1%
20 Washington Redskins 49.2% 7.5 9.2% 24.8% 2.7% 1.1%
21 Buffalo Bills 48.6% 7.3 5.5% 23.6% 2.2% <1%
22 Los Angeles Chargers 48.1% 7.5 10.7% 26.4% 2.6% 1.1%
23 Tennessee Titans 47.3% 7.9 26.5% 33.6% 3.8% 1.7%
24 Jacksonville Jaguars 47.1% 7.9 26.2% 33.4% 3.7% 1.7%
25 Houston Texans 46.2% 7.4 15.2% 24.3% 2.3% <1%
26 Chicago Bears 44.2% 6.8 5.0% 15.7% 1.4% <1%
27 Miami Dolphins 44.0% 6.5 1.8% 13.3% 1.0% <1%
28 Detroit Lions 43.1% 6.5 3.2% 12.3% 1.0% <1%
29 Los Angeles Rams 38.5% 6.0 1.5% 8.6% <1% <1%
30 New York Jets 37.7% 5.7 0.5% 6.7% <1% <1%
31 San Francisco 49ers 36.8% 5.8 1.1% 7.3% <1% <1%
32 Cleveland Browns 28.1% 4.4 0.02% 1.4% <1% <1%