Week 4 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: September 25, 2017 in NFL

The NFL season is now three weeks old and we are getting two a point where some teams are panicking, some teams are cruising and for the most part: some teams are still figuring themselves out. There were a handful of upsets this week. I am guessing most of you would have laughed if I told you that the Bears would beat the Steelers in week 3. The Texans stuck with the Patriots for an entire game and were actually in position to win before TB12 worked his magic. The Jets just beat up on the Dolphins. The Bengals fired their offensive coordinator and were up for a majority of the game IN Green Bay. Even more crazy stuff happened. This was a great week for the NFL.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Win Div. Make Playoffs Make SB Win SB Preseason Rank Difference
1 Kansas City Chiefs 74.5% 12.7 93.5% 98.4% 36.8% 24.9%                  5 4
2 Atlanta Falcons 72.2% 12.2 89.9% 93.8% 36.5% 20.1%                  2 0
3 Detroit Lions 61.4% 9.9 63.2% 66.2% 11.2% 4.7%                28 25
4 Baltimore Ravens 60.3% 10.1 67.4% 72.4% 11.2% 5.6%                13 9
5 Philadelphia Eagles 60.2% 10.0 51.2% 68.7% 12.2% 5.2%                  8 3
6 Carolina Panthers 59.8% 9.1 8.9% 51.2% 6.6% 2.5%                11 5
7 New England Patriots 58.8% 9.6 58.3% 61.7% 7.8% 3.7%                  1 -6
8 Oakland Raiders 57.2% 8.9 4.5% 47.6% 4.7% 2.1%                18 10
9 Dallas Cowboys 56.9% 9.0 23.0% 49.7% 6.2% 2.4%                  6 -3
10 Tennessee Titans 56.1% 10.2 47.3% 73.8% 11.8% 5.9%                23 13
11 Jacksonville Jaguars 55.9% 10.3 51.5% 76.0% 12.7% 6.5%                24 13
12 Washington Redskins 55.4% 9.2 25.7% 52.1% 6.8% 2.6%                20 8
13 Buffalo Bills 54.6% 9.0 40.3% 50.4% 5.3% 2.3%                21 8
14 Pittsburgh Steelers 54.3% 9.0 32.4% 50.4% 5.2% 2.3%                  4 -10
15 Minnesota Vikings 52.3% 8.5 20.3% 38.7% 4.0% 1.5%                15 0
16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 50.6% 7.4 0.8% 21.9% 1.8% <1%                16 0
17 Denver Broncos 50.1% 8.3 2.0% 35.8% 2.9% 1.2%                10 -7
18 Green Bay Packers 49.9% 8.1 13.0% 31.3% 2.9% <1%                  3 -15
19 New Orleans Saints 49.1% 7.1 0.4% 16.1% 1.1% <1%                14 -5
20 Chicago Bears 48.4% 7.1 3.5% 17.0% 1.2% <1%                26 6
21 Los Angeles Rams 44.8% 8.0 33.7% 30.0% 2.7% <1%                29 8
22 Seattle Seahawks 43.7% 7.0 13.7% 16.0% 1.1% <1%                  7 -15
23 Arizona Cardinals 43.1% 7.2 52.4% 42.8% 5.6% 2.3%                  9 -14
24 Houston Texans 42.0% 7.0 1.1% 15.4% <1% <1%                25 1
25 New York Giants 41.7% 5.4 0.1% 3.4% <1% <1%                17 -8
26 Los Angeles Chargers 40.1% 4.8 0.001% 1.8% <1% <1%                22 -4
27 New York Jets 39.8% 5.9 0.8% 5.6% <1% <1%                30 3
28 Cincinnati Bengals 39.5% 5.3 0.2% 3.0% <1% <1%                12 -16
29 Miami Dolphins 38.6% 5.7 0.6% 5.0% <1% <1%                27 -2
30 San Francisco 49ers 32.7% 4.5 0.2% 1.1% <1% <1%                31 1
31 Cleveland Browns 31.0% 4.2 0.02% <1% <1% <1%                32 1
32 Indianapolis Colts 30.1% 5.0 0.01% 2.0% <1% <1%                19 -13

Notes:

  • Preseason projections account for 40% of current rating, while on-play performance accounts for 60% of rating (60-40 for Bucs/Dolphins)
  • Lions have greatly outperformed their preseason projection (up 25 spots from 28 to 3). I was expecting some regression from the Lions after making the playoffs a year ago but they should probably be 3-0 right now.
  • Ravens are ranked 4, even after their miserable performance in London. This has a lot to do with how dominant their first two games were and how highly ranked they were to begin the season. Performances like last week will send them spiraling down the rankings.
  • The NFC West is really bad. Like all teams rank lower than 20. I could see a 7 win playoff team coming out of that mess.
  • Most underwhelming teams so far: Bengals, Seahawks, Packers, Cardinals, Colts and Steelers. I think Packers and Steelers have what it takes to turn it around.
  • Most overwhelming teams so far: Lions, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders and Ravens. I think the Titans and Jaguars both have what it takes to continue their strong start to the season. I would be worried if I were a Ravens fan.
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