Archive for October, 2017

Week 9 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: October 30, 2017 in NFL

We are now 8 weeks into the NFL season and this season still seems kind of out of whack. A handful of teams have outperformed and under performed their expectation entering the season. The Eagles are now the Super Bowl favorites, followed by the Chiefs and Patriots.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Win Div. Make Playoffs Make SB Win SB Prev Rank Dif
1 Kansas City Chiefs 72.3% 12.0 99.4% >99% 29.6% 16.0%                  1 0
2 Philadelphia Eagles 66.9% 12.4 96.0% 98.4% 31.2% 20.0%                  3 1
3 Jacksonville Jaguars 65.9% 10.8 80.4% 86.8% 14.5% 6.4%                  4 1
4 New Orleans Saints 64.5% 10.9 64.2% 86.2% 14.6% 7.6%                  2 -2
5 New England Patriots 63.5% 11.2 64.9% 90.5% 18.9% 9.1%                  6 1
6 Los Angeles Rams 62.8% 10.6 52.8% 81.7% 12.1% 6.1%                  5 -1
7 Minnesota Vikings 61.9% 10.6 77.7% 82.5% 11.9% 5.9%                  8 1
8 Pittsburgh Steelers 61.1% 10.8 85.2% 85.5% 15.6% 7.3%                  7 -1
9 Carolina Panthers 61.0% 10.1 33.5% 74.1% 7.9% 3.5%                10 1
10 Buffalo Bills 60.7% 10.4 35.0% 78.7% 11.8% 5.3%                12 2
11 Houston Texans 59.8% 8.9 14.4% 47.6% 3.3% 1.1%                  9 -2
12 Dallas Cowboys 58.9% 8.9 3.7% 47.6% 3.3% 1.3%                13 1
13 Seattle Seahawks 57.8% 10.4 46.6% 79.1% 10.9% 5.4%                11 -2
14 Green Bay Packers 54.4% 8.9 17.6% 46.6% 3.2% 1.3%                15 1
15 Baltimore Ravens 52.5% 8.6 12.7% 39.7% 2.4% <1%                20 5
16 Detroit Lions 52.3% 7.9 4.5% 26.3% 1.3% <1%                17 1
17 Atlanta Falcons 50.2% 8.1 2.3% 29.4% 1.6% <1%                21 4
18 Washington Redskins 49.2% 7.5 0.3% 19.6% <1% <1%                14 -4
19 Cincinnati Bengals 48.1% 7.3 2.1% 16.6% <1% <1%                16 -3
20 Los Angeles Chargers 46.8% 6.7 0.2% 8.0% <1% <1%                19 -1
21 Oakland Raiders 44.1% 6.3 0.1% 5.0% <1% <1%                18 -3
22 Chicago Bears 43.9% 6.7 0.3% 7.9% <1% <1%                26 4
23 Tennessee Titans 40.8% 8.1 5.2% 30.7% 1.8% <1%                23 0
24 Denver Broncos 40.8% 6.9 0.3% 10.6% <1% <1%                27 3
25 New York Giants 39.0% 4.6 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                25 0
26 Miami Dolphins 36.7% 6.7 0.1% 8.4% <1% <1%                22 -4
27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35.8% 5.0 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                24 -3
28 New York Jets 34.7% 5.4 0.0% 1.4% <1% <1%                28 0
29 San Francisco 49ers 28.4% 2.6 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                29 0
30 Cleveland Browns 25.0% 1.7 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                30 0
31 Arizona Cardinals 23.5% 5.2 0.6% 13.9% <1% <1%                31 0
32 Indianapolis Colts 18.3% 3.3 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                32 0
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Week 8 NFL Preview

Posted: October 26, 2017 in NFL

Projections

Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Baltimore Ravens 58.4% Miami Dolphins 41.6%
Sun 8:30 Cleveland Browns 19.2% Minnesota Vikings 80.8%
Sun 12:00 Buffalo Bills 61.3% Oakland Raiders 38.7%
Sun 12:00 Cincinnati Bengals 87.8% Indianapolis Colts 12.2%
Sun 12:00 New England Patriots 67.3% Los Angeles Chargers 32.7%
Sun 12:00 New Orleans Saints 79.6% Chicago Bears 20.4%
Sun 12:00 New York Jets 47.3% Atlanta Falcons 52.7%
Sun 12:00 Philadelphia Eagles 84.9% San Francisco 49ers 15.1%
Sun 12:00 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38.0% Carolina Panthers 62.0%
Sun 3:05 Seattle Seahawks 53.7% Houston Texans 46.3%
Sun 3:25 Washington Redskins 53.2% Dallas Cowboys 46.8%
Sun 7:30 Detroit Lions 45.7% Pittsburgh Steelers 54.3%
Mon 7:30 Kansas City Chiefs 85.1% Denver Broncos 14.9%

Picks of the Week

Game of the week (4-3) – Seahawks host the Texans in another big test for rookie QB Desean Watson. I really like Watson’s game and think he has looked incredible thus far. However, I think the rookie will struggle against the Seahawks defense and that Seattle crowd. Seattle 24 Houston 21

Lock of the week (5-2) – The Chiefs over the Broncos. Trevor Siemian is not a good quarterback and is making the Broncos not a good team. Chiefs in a big way. Kansas City 27 Denver 9

Upset of the week (5-2) – Raiders over the Bills. Oakland is traveling to Buffalo but I think they have a solid chance at an upset. Oakland 17 Buffalo 13

Accuracy

 

Overall W L T %
81+% 33 8 0 80.5%
61-80% 130 80 1 61.8%
51-60% 66 53 1 55.4%
          229           141               2 61.8%
Expected Right       246.7 7.2%

 

2017 W L T %
81+% 2 2 0 50.0%
61-80% 35 23 0 60.3%
51-60% 24 9 0 72.7%
            61             34              – 64.2%
Expected Right       67.19 9.2%

Week 8 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: October 23, 2017 in NFL

Chiefs hold on to the #1 spot despite two straight losses. Saints move up to #2 after defeating the Packers at Lambeau. Jaguars and Rams enter the top 5. I don’t have much else to say.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Win Div. Make Playoffs Make SB Win SB Prev Rank Dif
1 Kansas City Chiefs 75.0% 12.1 99.0% >99% 32.3% 18.0%                  1 0
2 New Orleans Saints 68.3% 11.0 77.1% 87.5% 17.6% 9.2%                  4 2
3 Philadelphia Eagles 68.0% 12.2 95.7% 97.1% 32.0% 20.2%                  2 -1
4 Jacksonville Jaguars 65.7% 10.7 73.0% 85.7% 14.8% 6.6%                  5 1
5 Los Angeles Rams 63.6% 10.6 61.6% 82.0% 13.5% 6.7%                  9 4
6 New England Patriots 61.6% 10.6 69.7% 83.0% 15.0% 7.1%                12 6
7 Pittsburgh Steelers 61.0% 10.9 89.9% 89.9% 17.4% 8.4%                13 6
8 Minnesota Vikings 59.1% 10.2 67.3% 75.3% 10.5% 5.0%                10 2
9 Houston Texans 58.7% 9.3 22.0% 57.2% 5.7% 2.2%                  8 -1
10 Carolina Panthers 58.3% 9.4 22.1% 59.7% 5.6% 2.4%                  3 -7
11 Seattle Seahawks 57.4% 9.9 37.5% 69.4% 8.9% 4.2%                14 3
12 Buffalo Bills 55.6% 9.4 26.3% 59.1% 6.6% 2.8%                  6 -6
13 Dallas Cowboys 54.5% 7.8 1.3% 25.8% 1.5% <1%                18 5
14 Washington Redskins 52.7% 8.4 3.0% 36.0% 2.4% <1%                15 1
15 Green Bay Packers 52.6% 8.8 19.7% 45.5% 3.4% 1.3%                16 1
16 Cincinnati Bengals 52.0% 7.7 4.9% 22.9% 1.3% <1%                  7 -9
17 Detroit Lions 51.9% 8.4 12.6% 37.8% 2.6% 1.0%                11 -6
18 Oakland Raiders 49.2% 7.0 0.3% 11.8% <1% <1%                24 6
19 Los Angeles Chargers 48.8% 7.1 0.4% 13.1% <1% <1%                23 4
20 Baltimore Ravens 46.6% 7.8 5.2% 23.5% 1.3% <1%                21 1
21 Atlanta Falcons 46.0% 7.2 0.8% 15.3% <1% <1%                17 -4
22 Miami Dolphins 43.1% 8.0 3.9% 27.9% 1.9% <1%                28 6
23 Tennessee Titans 41.2% 8.2 5.0% 31.7% 2.1% <1%                20 -3
24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41.2% 5.8 0.0% 3.5% <1% <1%                22 -2
25 New York Giants 40.4% 4.5 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                25 0
26 Chicago Bears 40.2% 6.6 0.3% 7.7% <1% <1%                29 3
27 Denver Broncos 39.1% 6.7 0.2% 9.2% <1% <1%                19 -8
28 New York Jets 38.5% 6.2 0.1% 4.9% <1% <1%                27 -1
29 San Francisco 49ers 31.6% 3.0 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                26 -3
30 Cleveland Browns 25.5% 2.0 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                31 1
31 Arizona Cardinals 24.2% 5.2 0.8% 13.8% <1% <1%                30 -1
32 Indianapolis Colts 15.6% 3.3 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                32 0

Week 7 NFL Preview

Posted: October 19, 2017 in NFL

Projections

Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Oakland Raiders 19.4% Kansas City Chiefs 80.6%
Sun 12:00 Buffalo Bills 69.9% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30.1%
Sun 12:00 Chicago Bears 22.7% Carolina Panthers 77.3%
Sun 12:00 Cleveland Browns 35.0% Tennessee Titans 65.0%
Sun 12:00 Green Bay Packers 46.0% New Orleans Saints 54.0%
Sun 12:00 Indianapolis Colts 19.2% Jacksonville Jaguars 80.8%
Sun 12:00 Los Angeles Rams 77.4% Arizona Cardinals 22.6%
Sun 12:00 Miami Dolphins 54.3% New York Jets 45.7%
Sun 12:00 Minnesota Vikings 66.2% Baltimore Ravens 33.8%
Sun 3:05 San Francisco 49ers 41.6% Dallas Cowboys 58.4%
Sun 3:25 Los Angeles Chargers 53.4% Denver Broncos 46.6%
Sun 3:25 New York Giants 40.1% Seattle Seahawks 59.9%
Sun 3:25 Pittsburgh Steelers 52.1% Cincinnati Bengals 47.9%
Sun 7:30 New England Patriots 58.1% Atlanta Falcons 41.9%
Mon 7:30 Philadelphia Eagles 70.3% Washington Redskins 29.7%

Picks of the Week

Game of the week (3-3) – A Super Bowl rematch on Sunday night featuring the Patriots playing host to the Atlanta Falcons. Both teams are experiencing a little bit of a Super Bowl hangover thus far in the season for different reasons. The Patriots defense hasn’t looked good in the slightest and Matt Ryan looks nothing like the MVP from a season ago. I like the Patriots in this one. New England 31 Atlanta 27

Lock of the week (4-2) – The Eagles are a really good team. I typically try and stay away from divisional games for the lock of the week but I like the Eagles a lot against a banged up Washington. Philadelphia 27 Washington 14

Upset of the week (4-2) – Bears over Panthers in Chicago. John Fox gets his old team in a Trubisky breakout game. Chicago 27 Carolina 26

Accuracy

Overall W L T %
81+% 32 7 0 82.1%
61-80% 125 79 1 61.2%
51-60% 59 53 1 52.7%
       216      139         2 60.8%
Expected Right     237.0 8.8%

 

2017 W L T %
81+% 1 1 0 50.0%
61-80% 30 22 0 57.7%
51-60% 17 9 0 65.4%
              48               32                – 60.0%
Expected Right         57.4 16.4%

Week 7 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: October 17, 2017 in NFL

The Chiefs have lost and there are officially no undefeated teams left in this young NFL season. The Chiefs still retain the #1 spot and the Eagles, Panthers, Saints, and Jaguars round out the top five. The season is still young and every team is now being judged solely on their play this season. There are a lot of teams up and down the power rankings that probably don’t make a lot of sense but that is due to the small sample size of games played. Anyways the rankings sure are interesting.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Win Div. Make Playoffs Make SB Win SB Prev Rank Dif
1 Kansas City Chiefs 79.0% 13.2 99.5% >99% 47.1% 30.3%                  1 0
2 Philadelphia Eagles 69.5% 12.2 93.3% 96.8% 33.2% 19.8%                  3 1
3 Carolina Panthers 67.9% 10.9 69.0% 86.5% 17.5% 8.6%                  2 -1
4 New Orleans Saints 62.4% 9.7 26.7% 65.2% 8.3% 3.6%                13 9
5 Jacksonville Jaguars 60.9% 10.0 59.9% 71.8% 9.3% 3.8%                  6 1
6 Buffalo Bills 60.8% 9.9 48.7% 68.7% 9.7% 4.1%                  4 -2
7 Cincinnati Bengals 58.1% 8.6 25.7% 42.4% 3.5% 1.3%                  9 2
8 Houston Texans 57.8% 9.2 31.7% 54.7% 5.3% 2.0%                11 3
9 Los Angeles Rams 57.6% 9.8 58.8% 67.7% 8.7% 3.8%                18 9
10 Minnesota Vikings 56.8% 9.5 40.2% 60.3% 6.8% 2.8%                20 10
11 Detroit Lions 56.7% 9.0 25.5% 49.9% 4.3% 1.6%                10 -1
12 New England Patriots 56.7% 9.9 50.5% 69.9% 9.8% 4.1%                12 0
13 Pittsburgh Steelers 55.2% 9.8 64.1% 67.1% 8.9% 3.7%                19 6
14 Seattle Seahawks 54.7% 9.2 35.5% 53.2% 5.5% 2.2%                15 1
15 Washington Redskins 54.0% 8.9 6.4% 47.4% 4.4% 1.8%                  7 -8
16 Green Bay Packers 53.6% 9.3 34.2% 56.3% 5.9% 2.4%                  8 -8
17 Atlanta Falcons 53.5% 8.2 4.1% 33.9% 2.6% <1%                  5 -12
18 Dallas Cowboys 51.4% 7.1 0.3% 15.0% <1% <1%                17 -1
19 Denver Broncos 46.1% 7.6 0.4% 22.9% 1.5% <1%                14 -5
20 Tennessee Titans 45.1% 8.1 8.3% 29.9% 2.0% <1%                23 3
21 Baltimore Ravens 45.1% 7.8 10.2% 25.6% 1.6% <1%                16 -5
22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44.9% 6.4 0.1% 8.0% <1% <1%                22 0
23 Los Angeles Chargers 44.6% 6.4 0.0% 7.2% <1% <1%                24 1
24 Oakland Raiders 42.5% 5.7 0.0% 3.1% <1% <1%                21 -3
25 New York Giants 39.8% 4.9 0.0% 1.1% <1% <1%                27 2
26 San Francisco 49ers 38.1% 4.1 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                28 2
27 New York Jets 37.5% 6.3 0.3% 6.2% <1% <1%                25 -2
28 Miami Dolphins 36.8% 6.6 0.6% 9.4% <1% <1%                26 -2
29 Chicago Bears 33.7% 5.1 0.0% 1.4% <1% <1%                29 0
30 Arizona Cardinals 28.4% 5.8 5.8% 21.8% 1.7% <1%                30 0
31 Cleveland Browns 26.6% 2.6 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                31 0
32 Indianapolis Colts 23.3% 5.1 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                32 0

Week 6 NFL Preview

Posted: October 11, 2017 in NFL

Projections

Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Carolina Panthers 58.5% Philadelphia Eagles 41.5%
Sun 12:00 Atlanta Falcons 78.9% Miami Dolphins 21.1%
Sun 12:00 Baltimore Ravens 74.3% Chicago Bears 25.7%
Sun 12:00 Houston Texans 83.2% Cleveland Browns 16.8%
Sun 12:00 Minnesota Vikings 43.4% Green Bay Packers 56.6%
Sun 12:00 New Orleans Saints 50.5% Detroit Lions 49.5%
Sun 12:00 New York Jets 38.7% New England Patriots 61.3%
Sun 12:00 Washington Redskins 80.0% San Francisco 49ers 20.0%
Sun 3:05 Arizona Cardinals 36.2% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 63.8%
Sun 3:05 Jacksonville Jaguars 66.5% Los Angeles Rams 33.5%
Sun 3:25 Kansas City Chiefs 83.8% Pittsburgh Steelers 16.2%
Sun 3:25 Oakland Raiders 62.0% Los Angeles Chargers 38.0%
Sun 7:30 Denver Broncos 73.7% New York Giants 26.3%
Mon 7:30 Tennessee Titans 80.1% Indianapolis Colts 19.9%

Picks of the Week

Game of the week (2-3) – This weeks Thursday night game between the Panthers and Eagles is a surprising marquee matchup early in the week. The Panthers and Eagles are both 4-1 and leading their divisions. I think both teams are playing very well right now but I think the Eagles are playing a little better. Eagles 24 Panthers 17

Lock of the week (3-2) – Texans over the Browns. Cleveland moves on to its 28th starting QB since 1999 and the Texans might have found their franchise QB. Texans 31 Browns 17

Upset of the week (3-2) – I think the Chargers can go into Oakland and surprise an EJ Manuel led Raider team. Chargers 21 Raiders 17

Accuracy

Overall W L T %
81+% 31 6 0 83.8%
61-80% 122 73 1 62.5%
51-60% 58 51 1 53.2%
       211      130         2 61.8%
Expected Right     227.2 7.1%

 

2017 W L T %
81+% 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
61-80% 27 16 0 62.8%
51-60% 16 9 0 64.0%
              43               25                – 63.2%
Expected Right         47.68 9.8%

Week 6 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: October 9, 2017 in NFL

Another week in the books, another impressive performance by the Chiefs. Kansas City has been dominate through five games and the last unbeaten team has a commanding lead in the power rankings. The Panthers and Eagles (both quietly 4-1) rank two and three. Bills and Falcons round out the top five. The Jaguars, Eagles, Ravens, Seahawks all moved up five or more spots this week while the Lions, Cowboys and Vikings all dropped by five or more spots.

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Win Div. Make Playoffs Make SB Win SB Prev Rank Dif
1 Kansas City Chiefs 80.7% 14.0 98.7% >99% 44.7% 31.8%                  1 0
2 Carolina Panthers 69.1% 11.5 69.6% 91.7% 23.1% 11.6%                  4 2
3 Philadelphia Eagles 66.0% 11.3 74.7% 89.3% 20.5% 10.0%                10 7
4 Buffalo Bills 64.3% 10.3 66.5% 76.0% 10.5% 4.7%                  3 -1
5 Atlanta Falcons 63.6% 10.3 28.6% 75.3% 12.1% 5.4%                  2 -3
6 Jacksonville Jaguars 61.8% 10.9 76.1% 86.1% 15.5% 7.4%                15 9
7 Washington Redskins 61.7% 9.7 24.7% 65.4% 8.0% 3.2%                  6 -1
8 Green Bay Packers 60.8% 10.6 65.0% 81.0% 14.4% 6.6%                  7 -1
9 Cincinnati Bengals 59.9% 8.9 32.3% 47.4% 3.6% 1.3%                12 3
10 Detroit Lions 58.9% 9.6 30.2% 62.5% 7.0% 2.8%                  5 -5
11 Houston Texans 57.5% 9.2 20.1% 55.0% 4.6% 1.8%                16 5
12 New England Patriots 56.7% 9.3 32.2% 56.0% 5.3% 2.1%                  8 -4
13 New Orleans Saints 54.5% 8.1 1.7% 32.0% 2.3% <1%                13 0
14 Denver Broncos 54.0% 9.1 1.3% 50.7% 4.8% 2.0%                14 0
15 Seattle Seahawks 53.6% 9.1 53.0% 53.0% 4.9% 1.8%                21 6
16 Baltimore Ravens 52.9% 9.4 49.0% 58.4% 5.8% 2.4%                23 7
17 Dallas Cowboys 51.8% 7.0 <1% 14.3% <1% <1%                  9 -8
18 Los Angeles Rams 49.9% 8.8 42.3% 45.4% 3.8% 1.4%                22 4
19 Pittsburgh Steelers 49.6% 8.3 18.7% 35.6% 2.4% <1%                17 -2
20 Minnesota Vikings 49.3% 8.0 4.8% 29.4% 1.9% <1%                11 -9
21 Oakland Raiders 48.8% 6.8 <1% 12.1% <1% <1%                18 -3
22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44.1% 6.6 <1% 10.1% <1% <1%                19 -3
23 Tennessee Titans 43.5% 7.9 3.9% 27.6% 1.6% <1%                20 -3
24 Los Angeles Chargers 41.6% 5.2 <1% 2.0% <1% <1%                26 2
25 New York Jets 40.3% 6.8 1.2% 11.6% <1% <1%                25 0
26 Miami Dolphins 36.4% 5.7 <1% 3.8% <1% <1%                30 4
27 New York Giants 33.9% 3.5 <1% <1% <1% <1%                24 -3
28 San Francisco 49ers 33.1% 4.0 <1% <1% <1% <1%                28 0
29 Chicago Bears 32.2% 4.3 <1% <1% <1% <1%                27 -2
30 Arizona Cardinals 26.8% 5.2 4.6% 12.9% <1% <1%                29 -1
31 Cleveland Browns 25.0% 2.6 <1% <1% <1% <1%                31 0
32 Indianapolis Colts 18.9% 3.8 <1% <1% <1% <1%                32 0

Week 5 NFL Preview

Posted: October 4, 2017 in NFL

Projections

Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Thu 7:25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 47.9% New England Patriots 52.1%
Sun 12:00 Cincinnati Bengals 45.0% Buffalo Bills 55.0%
Sun 12:00 Cleveland Browns 40.0% New York Jets 60.0%
Sun 12:00 Detroit Lions 52.7% Carolina Panthers 47.3%
Sun 12:00 Indianapolis Colts 36.7% San Francisco 49ers 63.3%
Sun 12:00 Miami Dolphins 37.3% Tennessee Titans 62.7%
Sun 12:00 New York Giants 57.8% Los Angeles Chargers 42.2%
Sun 12:00 Philadelphia Eagles 74.5% Arizona Cardinals 25.5%
Sun 12:00 Pittsburgh Steelers 54.6% Jacksonville Jaguars 45.4%
Sun 3:05 Los Angeles Rams 54.8% Seattle Seahawks 45.2%
Sun 3:05 Oakland Raiders 60.9% Baltimore Ravens 39.1%
Sun 3:25 Dallas Cowboys 54.3% Green Bay Packers 45.7%
Sun 7:30 Houston Texans 27.4% Kansas City Chiefs 72.6%
Mon 7:30 Chicago Bears 38.3% Minnesota Vikings 61.7%

Picks of the Week

Game of the week (1-3) – Cowboys host the Packers in the afternoon game on Sunday night in a rematch of their thrilling NFC Divisional round matchup. The Packers are 3-1 at the quarter pole and tied with the Lions for the divisional lead. The Cowboys are 2-2 and a loss could mean falling two games behind the Eagles (home vs. Cardinals) early in the season. This should be an interesting game as the Packers are dealing with a ton of injuries but coming off a long week while the Cowboys are hoping to get more production out of their secondary against Aaron Rodgers. I like the Packers in a tight one. Packers 27 Cowboys 24

Lock of the week (3-1) – The odds don’t show this but I really like the Steelers to beat up on the Jaguars at home. Ben Roethlisberger’s Home/Away splits are legitimate, and they are home. Steelers 31 Jaguars 20

Upset of the week (3-1) – Browns over Jets only because the Jets really can’t be 3-2 this season, right? Browns 23 Jets 17

Accuracy

Overall W L T %
81+% 31 6 0 83.8%
61-80% 119 70 1 62.9%
51-60% 56 45 1 55.4%
           206          121                   2 62.9%
Expected Right        218.9 5.9%

 

2017 W L T %
81+% 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
61-80% 24 13 0 64.9%
51-60% 14 9 0 60.9%
              38               22                – 63.3%
Expected Right         39.31  3.3%

 

Week 5 NFL Power Rankings

Posted: October 2, 2017 in NFL

We have reached the quarter pole of the 2017 NFL season and there have been a lot of shocking results thus far. The only undefeated team left is the Chiefs and they are the top team in these rankings. Super Bowl runner up Atlanta Falcons are ranked second. Behind them? A bevy of surprising teams with the Bills, Panthers and Lions rounding out the top five. The season is still young and plenty of teams can still turn it around, or fall apart (see Vikings 2016, Falcons 2015). Without further ado:

Rank Team Name POWER Proj. Wins Win Div. Make Playoffs Make SB Win SB Prev Rank Dif
1 Kansas City Chiefs 78.3% 13.3 96.5% >99% 43.9% 32.8%                  1 0
2 Atlanta Falcons 64.7% 10.4 49.7% 69.5% 16.1% 7.1%                  2 0
3 Buffalo Bills 64.1% 10.8 76.6% 83.1% 16.3% 9.0%                13 10
4 Carolina Panthers 63.3% 10.2 44.1% 67.0% 14.6% 6.3%                  6 2
5 Detroit Lions 61.2% 10.2 54.5% 67.2% 14.7% 6.3%                  3 -2
6 Washington Redskins 59.9% 9.3 33.3% 51.3% 7.5% 2.8%                12 6
7 Green Bay Packers 59.3% 9.7 36.5% 58.0% 10.3% 4.2%                18 11
8 New England Patriots 58.6% 9.0 22.6% 50.7% 4.9% 2.2%                  7 -1
9 Dallas Cowboys 58.5% 8.4 13.6% 34.5% 3.7% 1.3%                  9 0
10 Philadelphia Eagles 56.9% 9.9 53.0% 62.1% 12.1% 5.0%                  5 -5
11 Minnesota Vikings 55.4% 8.3 9.0% 33.0% 3.5% 1.2%                15 4
12 Cincinnati Bengals 54.4% 7.7 16.5% 24.7% 1.5% <1%                28 16
13 New Orleans Saints 53.6% 7.9 2.6% 25.1% 2.3% <1%                19 6
14 Denver Broncos 53.4% 9.1 3.1% 52.4% 5.6% 2.6%                17 3
15 Jacksonville Jaguars 53.1% 9.4 40.7% 59.7% 6.7% 3.1%                11 -4
16 Houston Texans 52.8% 9.0 28.3% 50.5% 4.9% 2.2%                24 8
17 Pittsburgh Steelers 52.6% 9.3 60.8% 55.9% 6.3% 3.0%                14 -3
18 Oakland Raiders 52.4% 7.9 0.4% 28.3% 1.9% <1%                  8 -10
19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51.5% 8.0 3.5% 28.2% 3.0% 1.0%                16 -3
20 Tennessee Titans 49.5% 9.1 31.0% 52.7% 5.3% 2.4%                10 -10
21 Seattle Seahawks 48.6% 7.9 22.3% 25.7% 2.4% <1%                22 1
22 Los Angeles Rams 48.4% 9.1 55.8% 45.9% 6.4% 2.4%                21 -1
23 Baltimore Ravens 46.4% 8.0 22.7% 30.3% 2.1% <1%                  4 -19
24 New York Giants 41.4% 4.9 0.0% 1.4% <1% <1%                25 1
25 New York Jets 40.7% 6.5 0.8% 9.6% <1% <1%                27 2
26 Los Angeles Chargers 38.7% 4.3 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                26 0
27 Chicago Bears 38.7% 5.4 0.0% 2.8% <1% <1%                20 -7
28 San Francisco 49ers 38.1% 5.0 0.2% 1.7% <1% <1%                30 2
29 Arizona Cardinals 35.6% 6.4 21.8% 26.7% 3.2% 1.2%                23 -6
30 Miami Dolphins 32.3% 4.6 0.0% 1.0% <1% <1%                29 -1
31 Cleveland Browns 27.3% 3.3 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                31 0
32 Indianapolis Colts 22.6% 3.7 0.0% <1% <1% <1%                32 0