Week 17 NFL Preview

Posted: December 31, 2017 in NFL

Projections

 

Day and Time (CST) Home Team Home Team Win Probability Road Team Road Team Win Probability
Sun 12:00 Detroit Lions 63.6% Green Bay Packers 36.4%
Sun 12:00 Indianapolis Colts 42.0% Houston Texans 58.0%
Sun 12:00 Minnesota Vikings 78.7% Chicago Bears 21.3%
Sun 12:00 New England Patriots 80.1% New York Jets 19.9%
Sun 12:00 New York Giants 37.9% Washington Redskins 62.1%
Sun 12:00 Philadelphia Eagles 72.9% Dallas Cowboys 27.1%
Sun 12:00 Pittsburgh Steelers 86.6% Cleveland Browns 13.4%
Sun 3:25 Atlanta Falcons 50.1% Carolina Panthers 49.9%
Sun 3:25 Baltimore Ravens 74.4% Cincinnati Bengals 25.6%
Sun 3:25 Denver Broncos 28.2% Kansas City Chiefs 71.8%
Sun 3:25 Los Angeles Chargers 66.6% Oakland Raiders 33.4%
Sun 3:25 Los Angeles Rams 81.9% San Francisco 49ers 18.1%
Sun 3:25 Miami Dolphins 53.7% Buffalo Bills 46.3%
Sun 3:25 Seattle Seahawks 69.3% Arizona Cardinals 30.7%
Sun 3:25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25.3% New Orleans Saints 74.7%
Sun 3:25 Tennessee Titans 32.6% Jacksonville Jaguars 67.4%

Playoff Odds

New England Patriots

New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs (82.8%):

  1. New England win (80.1%) OR
  2. Pittsburgh loss (13.4%) OR
  3. New England tie and Pittsburgh tie (<0.1%)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs (17.2%):

  1. Pittsburgh win + New England loss/tie (17.2%) OR
  2. Pittsburgh tie + New England loss (<0.1%)

Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore clinches a playoff berth (90.9%):

  1. Baltimore win/tie (74.4%) OR
  2. Buffalo loss/tie (53.7%) OR
  3. Tennessee loss/tie (67.4%)

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee clinches a playoff berth (42.3%):

  1. Tennessee win (32.6%) OR
  2. Tennessee tie + Buffalo loss/tie + LA Chargers loss/tie (0.1%) OR
  3. Buffalo loss + LA Chargers loss (17.9%)

Los Angeles Chargers

L.A. Chargers clinch a playoff berth (46.9%):

  1. LA Chargers win + Tennessee loss/tie + Buffalo loss/tie (24.1%) OR
  2. LA Chargers win + Tennessee loss/tie + Baltimore win/tie (33.4%) OR
  3. LA Chargers tie + Tennessee loss + Buffalo loss/tie (0.2%)

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo clinches a playoff berth (20.0%):

  1. Buffalo win + Baltimore loss (11.8%) OR
  2. Buffalo win + LA Chargers loss/tie + Tennessee loss/tie (10.4%) OR
  3. Buffalo tie + LA Chargers loss + Tennessee loss (0.1%)

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota clinches a first-round bye (99.5%):

  1. Minnesota win/tie (78.7%) OR
  2. Carolina loss/tie  (50.1%) OR
  3. New Orleans win (74.7%) OR
  4. LA Rams win (81.9%)

New Orleans Saints

New Orleans clinches NFC South (87.4%):

  1. New Orleans win (74.7%) OR
  2. Carolina loss (50.1%) OR
  3. New Orleans tie + Carolina tie (<0.1%)

Carolina Panthers

Carolina clinches NFC South (12.6%):

  1. Carolina win + New Orleans loss/tie (12.6%) OR
  2. Carolina tie + New Orleans loss (0.1%)

Carolina clinches a first-round bye (0.5%):

  1. Carolina win + New Orleans loss/tie + Minnesota loss + LA Rams loss/tie (0.5%)

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta clinches a playoff berth (70.9%):

  1. Atlanta win (50.1%) OR
  2. Seattle loss (30.7%) OR
  3. Atlanta tie + Seattle tie (<0.1%)

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle clinches a playoff berth (29.1%):

  1. Seattle win + Atlanta loss/tie (34.6%) OR
  2. Seattle tie + Atlanta loss (0.2%)

 

Accuracy

Overall W L T %
81+% 47 9 0 83.9%
61-80% 185 94 1 66.3%
51-60% 92 77 1 54.4%
          324           180               2 64.2%
Expected Right       334.8 3.2%

 

2017 W L T %
81+% 16 3 0 84.2%
61-80% 90 37 0 70.9%
51-60% 50 43 0 53.8%
           156             83              – 65.3%
Expected Right      155.27 -0.5%
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