NCAA Tournament Projections

Posted: March 11, 2018 in NCAA

Virginia, Villanova, Duke, UNC and Purdue the five biggest favorites to win the tournament. Gonzaga has better odds than Kansas does. St. Bonaventure, Butler, Loyola Chicago all have ~20% chance of making the sweet sixteen despite having a double-digit seed.

Seed Team R32 S16 E8 F4 CHAMPIONSHIP CHAMPS
1 Virginia 93% 76% 60% 46% 33% 21%
16 UMBC 7% 2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.02% 0.002%
8 Creighton 56% 13% 6% 3% 1% 0.3%
9 Kansas St. 44% 9% 4% 1% 0.5% 0.1%
5 Kentucky 63% 36% 12% 6% 3% 1%
12 Davidson 37% 16% 4% 2% 1% 0.1%
4 Arizona 60% 31% 9% 4% 2% 1%
13 Buffalo 40% 16% 4% 1% 0.5% 0.1%
6 Miami FL 54% 25% 10% 3% 1% 0.3%
11 Loyola Chicago 46% 20% 7% 2% 1% 0.2%
3 Tennessee 78% 49% 24% 9% 4% 2%
14 Wright St. 22% 7% 2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.01%
7 Nevada 56% 26% 14% 5% 2% 1%
10 Texas 44% 17% 8% 2% 1% 0.3%
2 Cincinnati 78% 50% 32% 14% 8% 4%
15 Georgia St. 22% 7% 2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.02%
1 Xavier 89% 56% 31% 15% 6% 2%
16 North Carolina Central/Texas Southern 11% 2% 0.2% 0.03% 0.002% 0.0002%
8 Missouri 47% 19% 8% 3% 1% 0.2%
9 Florida St. 53% 23% 10% 4% 1% 0.4%
5 Ohio St. 69% 36% 19% 8% 3% 1%
12 South Dakota St. 31% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% 0.05%
4 Gonzaga 75% 45% 26% 13% 5% 2%
13 UNC Greensboro 25% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% 0.03%
6 Houston 58% 30% 12% 6% 2% 1%
11 San Diego St. 42% 18% 6% 2% 1% 0.2%
3 Michigan 68% 39% 16% 8% 3% 1%
14 Montana 32% 13% 3% 1% 0.3% 0.1%
7 Texas A&M 60% 20% 10% 4% 1% 0.5%
10 Providence 40% 10% 4% 1% 0.4% 0.1%
2 North Carolina 89% 67% 48% 32% 18% 10%
15 Lipscomb 11% 3% 1% 0.2% 0.02% 0.003%
1 Villanova 93% 75% 57% 41% 26% 16%
16 LIU Brooklyn/Radford 7% 2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.01% 0.001%
8 Virginia Tech 56% 14% 6% 3% 1% 0.3%
9 Alabama 44% 9% 4% 1% 0.4% 0.1%
5 West Virginia 62% 33% 11% 5% 2% 1%
12 Murray St. 38% 16% 4% 1% 0.4% 0.1%
4 Wichita St. 72% 41% 15% 7% 3% 1%
13 Marshall 28% 10% 2% 1% 0.1% 0.02%
6 Florida 55% 26% 10% 3% 1% 0.4%
11 St. Bonaventure/UCLA 45% 20% 7% 2% 1% 0.2%
3 Texas Tech 74% 44% 21% 8% 4% 1%
14 Stephen F. Austin 26% 9% 2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.02%
7 Arkansas 47% 17% 8% 2% 1% 0.2%
10 Butler 53% 20% 10% 3% 1% 0.4%
2 Purdue 87% 60% 41% 21% 11% 5%
15 Cal St. Fullerton 13% 3% 1% 0.1% 0.02% 0.003%
1 Kansas 78% 48% 27% 12% 5% 2%
16 Penn 22% 7% 2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.01%
8 Seton Hall 57% 28% 14% 5% 2% 1%
9 North Carolina St. 43% 18% 7% 2% 1% 0.2%
5 Clemson 65% 35% 19% 7% 3% 1%
12 New Mexico St. 35% 14% 5% 1% 0.4% 0.1%
4 Auburn 76% 43% 23% 9% 4% 2%
13 College of Charleston 24% 7% 2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.01%
6 TCU 62% 30% 11% 6% 2% 1%
11 Arizona St./Syracuse 38% 15% 4% 2% 1% 0.2%
3 Michigan St. 75% 46% 20% 12% 6% 3%
14 Bucknell 25% 9% 2% 1% 0.1% 0.03%
7 Rhode Island 58% 17% 8% 4% 1% 1%
10 Oklahoma 42% 10% 4% 2% 0.5% 0.1%
2 Duke 88% 69% 50% 37% 23% 14%
15 Iona 12% 4% 1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.01%

 

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