Archive for the ‘NCAA’ Category

NCAA Tournament Projections

Posted: March 11, 2018 in NCAA

Virginia, Villanova, Duke, UNC and Purdue the five biggest favorites to win the tournament. Gonzaga has better odds than Kansas does. St. Bonaventure, Butler, Loyola Chicago all have ~20% chance of making the sweet sixteen despite having a double-digit seed.

Seed Team R32 S16 E8 F4 CHAMPIONSHIP CHAMPS
1 Virginia 93% 76% 60% 46% 33% 21%
16 UMBC 7% 2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.02% 0.002%
8 Creighton 56% 13% 6% 3% 1% 0.3%
9 Kansas St. 44% 9% 4% 1% 0.5% 0.1%
5 Kentucky 63% 36% 12% 6% 3% 1%
12 Davidson 37% 16% 4% 2% 1% 0.1%
4 Arizona 60% 31% 9% 4% 2% 1%
13 Buffalo 40% 16% 4% 1% 0.5% 0.1%
6 Miami FL 54% 25% 10% 3% 1% 0.3%
11 Loyola Chicago 46% 20% 7% 2% 1% 0.2%
3 Tennessee 78% 49% 24% 9% 4% 2%
14 Wright St. 22% 7% 2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.01%
7 Nevada 56% 26% 14% 5% 2% 1%
10 Texas 44% 17% 8% 2% 1% 0.3%
2 Cincinnati 78% 50% 32% 14% 8% 4%
15 Georgia St. 22% 7% 2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.02%
1 Xavier 89% 56% 31% 15% 6% 2%
16 North Carolina Central/Texas Southern 11% 2% 0.2% 0.03% 0.002% 0.0002%
8 Missouri 47% 19% 8% 3% 1% 0.2%
9 Florida St. 53% 23% 10% 4% 1% 0.4%
5 Ohio St. 69% 36% 19% 8% 3% 1%
12 South Dakota St. 31% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% 0.05%
4 Gonzaga 75% 45% 26% 13% 5% 2%
13 UNC Greensboro 25% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% 0.03%
6 Houston 58% 30% 12% 6% 2% 1%
11 San Diego St. 42% 18% 6% 2% 1% 0.2%
3 Michigan 68% 39% 16% 8% 3% 1%
14 Montana 32% 13% 3% 1% 0.3% 0.1%
7 Texas A&M 60% 20% 10% 4% 1% 0.5%
10 Providence 40% 10% 4% 1% 0.4% 0.1%
2 North Carolina 89% 67% 48% 32% 18% 10%
15 Lipscomb 11% 3% 1% 0.2% 0.02% 0.003%
1 Villanova 93% 75% 57% 41% 26% 16%
16 LIU Brooklyn/Radford 7% 2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.01% 0.001%
8 Virginia Tech 56% 14% 6% 3% 1% 0.3%
9 Alabama 44% 9% 4% 1% 0.4% 0.1%
5 West Virginia 62% 33% 11% 5% 2% 1%
12 Murray St. 38% 16% 4% 1% 0.4% 0.1%
4 Wichita St. 72% 41% 15% 7% 3% 1%
13 Marshall 28% 10% 2% 1% 0.1% 0.02%
6 Florida 55% 26% 10% 3% 1% 0.4%
11 St. Bonaventure/UCLA 45% 20% 7% 2% 1% 0.2%
3 Texas Tech 74% 44% 21% 8% 4% 1%
14 Stephen F. Austin 26% 9% 2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.02%
7 Arkansas 47% 17% 8% 2% 1% 0.2%
10 Butler 53% 20% 10% 3% 1% 0.4%
2 Purdue 87% 60% 41% 21% 11% 5%
15 Cal St. Fullerton 13% 3% 1% 0.1% 0.02% 0.003%
1 Kansas 78% 48% 27% 12% 5% 2%
16 Penn 22% 7% 2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.01%
8 Seton Hall 57% 28% 14% 5% 2% 1%
9 North Carolina St. 43% 18% 7% 2% 1% 0.2%
5 Clemson 65% 35% 19% 7% 3% 1%
12 New Mexico St. 35% 14% 5% 1% 0.4% 0.1%
4 Auburn 76% 43% 23% 9% 4% 2%
13 College of Charleston 24% 7% 2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.01%
6 TCU 62% 30% 11% 6% 2% 1%
11 Arizona St./Syracuse 38% 15% 4% 2% 1% 0.2%
3 Michigan St. 75% 46% 20% 12% 6% 3%
14 Bucknell 25% 9% 2% 1% 0.1% 0.03%
7 Rhode Island 58% 17% 8% 4% 1% 1%
10 Oklahoma 42% 10% 4% 2% 0.5% 0.1%
2 Duke 88% 69% 50% 37% 23% 14%
15 Iona 12% 4% 1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.01%

 

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Final NCAA Power Ranking

Posted: March 11, 2018 in NCAA

Ranking all 351 teams headed into the tournament.

Rank Team Conf POWER Record Prev Movement
1 Virginia ACC 72.8% 31 – 2 2 1
2 Duke ACC 72.3% 26 – 7 1 -1
3 Villanova BE 72.2% 30 – 4 3 0
4 North Carolina ACC 70.9% 25 – 10 4 0
5 Purdue B10 69.7% 28 – 6 5 0
6 Cincinnati Amer 68.9% 30 – 4 6 0
7 Michigan St. B10 68.6% 29 – 4 7 0
8 Gonzaga WCC 67.5% 30 – 4 10 2
9 Kansas B12 67.4% 27 – 7 11 2
10 Xavier BE 67.1% 28 – 5 9 -1
11 Auburn SEC 66.6% 25 – 7 8 -3
12 Tennessee SEC 66.6% 25 – 8 12 0
13 Kentucky SEC 66.4% 24 – 10 20 7
14 Texas Tech B12 66.4% 24 – 9 14 0
15 TCU B12 66.3% 21 – 11 13 -2
16 Michigan B10 66.1% 27 – 7 15 -1
17 Wichita St. Amer 66.1% 25 – 7 16 -1
18 Clemson ACC 66.1% 23 – 9 19 1
19 Ohio St. B10 66.0% 24 – 8 18 -1
20 Nevada MWC 65.4% 27 – 7 17 -3
21 West Virginia B12 65.1% 24 – 10 23 2
22 Arizona P12 65.1% 27 – 7 24 2
23 Rhode Island A10 65.0% 25 – 7 21 -2
25 Seton Hall BE 64.5% 21 – 11 22 -3
24 Houston Amer 64.8% 26 – 7 29 5
26 Texas A&M SEC 63.7% 20 – 12 25 -1
27 Louisville ACC 63.6% 20 – 13 32 5
28 Butler BE 63.6% 20 – 13 27 -1
29 Maryland B10 63.5% 18 – 13 31 2
30 Penn St. B10 63.5% 21 – 13 30 0
31 Creighton BE 63.4% 20 – 11 26 -5
32 Florida SEC 63.2% 20 – 12 28 -4
33 Florida St. ACC 62.9% 20 – 11 33 0
34 Texas B12 62.9% 19 – 14 37 3
35 Virginia Tech ACC 62.8% 21 – 11 38 3
36 Miami FL ACC 62.6% 22 – 9 35 -1
37 Arkansas SEC 62.4% 23 – 11 39 2
38 USC P12 62.4% 23 – 11 44 6
39 Baylor B12 62.3% 17 – 14 41 2
40 Middle Tennessee CUSA 62.3% 23 – 7 34 -6
41 Saint Mary’s WCC 62.1% 28 – 5 42 1
42 Arizona St. P12 62.0% 20 – 11 36 -6
43 Notre Dame ACC 61.9% 19 – 14 40 -3
44 Missouri SEC 61.6% 19 – 12 45 1
45 North Carolina St. ACC 61.6% 21 – 11 47 2
46 Syracuse ACC 61.5% 20 – 13 46 0
47 Oklahoma B12 61.5% 18 – 13 43 -4
48 Western Kentucky CUSA 61.4% 23 – 10 55 7
49 San Diego St. MWC 61.4% 21 – 10 58 9
50 UCLA P12 61.4% 21 – 11 49 -1
51 Davidson A10 61.2% 21 – 11 63 12
52 Vermont AE 61.1% 26 – 7 50 -2
53 St. Bonaventure A10 61.0% 25 – 7 48 -5
54 Kansas St. B12 61.0% 22 – 11 53 -1
55 Loyola Chicago MVC 60.9% 27 – 5 52 -3
56 Buffalo MAC 60.9% 25 – 8 62 6
57 Boise St. MWC 60.8% 22 – 8 51 -6
58 Louisiana Lafayette SB 60.4% 25 – 6 59 1
59 Murray St. OVC 60.3% 24 – 5 56 -3
60 Alabama SEC 60.3% 19 – 15 57 -3
61 New Mexico St. WAC 59.9% 25 – 5 61 0
62 Marquette BE 59.9% 19 – 13 54 -8
63 Utah P12 59.8% 19 – 11 64 1
64 Old Dominion CUSA 59.6% 25 – 7 66 2
65 Providence BE 59.3% 21 – 13 74 9
66 Oklahoma St. B12 59.2% 19 – 14 68 2
67 Mississippi St. SEC 59.1% 21 – 11 69 2
68 St. John’s BE 59.1% 15 – 17 65 -3
69 Wisconsin B10 59.0% 15 – 18 67 -2
70 Boston College ACC 59.0% 19 – 15 71 1
71 Oregon P12 58.9% 22 – 12 60 -11
72 Nebraska B10 58.9% 22 – 10 70 -2
73 BYU WCC 58.6% 24 – 10 77 4
74 South Dakota Sum 58.6% 22 – 8 72 -2
75 Montana BSky 58.4% 24 – 7 79 4
76 Georgia SEC 58.3% 18 – 15 75 -1
77 LSU SEC 58.2% 17 – 14 73 -4
78 Indiana B10 57.9% 16 – 15 78 0
79 SMU Amer 57.9% 17 – 16 80 1
80 Bucknell Pat 57.7% 25 – 9 83 3
81 South Carolina SEC 57.7% 16 – 16 76 -5
82 South Dakota St. Sum 57.5% 24 – 6 90 8
83 Northern Kentucky Horz 57.2% 20 – 9 85 2
84 Belmont OVC 57.1% 24 – 9 86 2
85 Fresno St. MWC 57.0% 19 – 11 82 -3
86 Wake Forest ACC 56.9% 11 – 20 81 -5
87 Northeastern CAA 56.6% 22 – 10 88 1
88 Utah Valley WAC 56.5% 19 – 10 87 -1
89 UNC Greensboro SC 56.5% 24 – 7 97 8
90 Northwestern B10 56.4% 14 – 17 89 -1
91 Temple Amer 56.4% 17 – 15 93 2
92 Vanderbilt SEC 56.3% 12 – 20 84 -8
93 Illinois B10 56.3% 13 – 18 92 -1
94 Iowa B10 56.2% 14 – 19 95 1
95 Georgia St. SB 56.1% 22 – 10 111 16
96 Furman SC 56.0% 21 – 10 96 0
97 East Tennessee St. SC 56.0% 23 – 9 91 -6
98 Marshall CUSA 56.0% 23 – 10 100 2
99 Stanford P12 55.9% 18 – 15 94 -5
100 UNLV MWC 55.6% 20 – 13 98 -2
101 Northern Colorado BSky 55.3% 19 – 12 113 12
102 New Mexico MWC 55.3% 18 – 15 115 13
103 Stephen F. Austin Slnd 55.2% 24 – 6 118 15
104 UT Arlington SB 55.2% 20 – 13 116 12
105 Oregon St. P12 55.0% 16 – 16 99 -6
106 Washington P12 55.0% 20 – 12 102 -4
107 Iona MAAC 54.8% 20 – 13 105 -2
108 Minnesota B10 54.6% 15 – 17 108 0
109 Canisius MAAC 54.5% 21 – 11 109 0
111 Mississippi SEC 54.5% 12 – 20 106 -5
110 UCF Amer 54.5% 19 – 13 101 -9
112 Rider MAAC 54.5% 22 – 9 110 -2
113 UAB CUSA 54.3% 18 – 13 103 -10
114 Grand Canyon WAC 54.3% 21 – 11 114 0
115 Colorado P12 54.2% 17 – 15 119 4
117 College of Charleston CAA 54.2% 24 – 7 125 8
116 Wyoming MWC 54.2% 19 – 13 104 -12
118 Georgia Tech ACC 54.1% 13 – 19 107 -11
119 Toledo MAC 54.1% 22 – 11 117 -2
120 Georgetown BE 53.8% 15 – 15 112 -8
121 Penn Ivy 53.7% 23 – 8 130 9
122 San Diego WCC 53.6% 17 – 13 121 -1
123 Northern Iowa MVC 53.5% 14 – 16 122 -1
124 Missouri St. MVC 53.4% 17 – 15 124 0
125 DePaul BE 53.4% 11 – 20 123 -2
126 Iowa St. B12 53.4% 13 – 18 126 0
127 Saint Joseph’s A10 53.2% 16 – 16 139 12
128 Tulsa Amer 53.2% 19 – 12 120 -8
129 Bradley MVC 53.1% 19 – 13 127 -2
130 UC Santa Barbara BW 53.0% 21 – 9 132 2
131 Florida Gulf Coast ASun 52.9% 20 – 11 128 -3
132 Rutgers B10 52.8% 14 – 19 131 -1
133 Eastern Washington BSky 52.7% 18 – 14 136 3
134 Albany AE 52.7% 21 – 10 133 -1
135 Harvard Ivy 52.6% 17 – 13 143 8
136 William & Mary CAA 52.6% 17 – 12 129 -7
137 Southern Illinois MVC 52.5% 19 – 13 134 -3
138 Wright St. Horz 52.4% 23 – 9 140 2
139 Hofstra CAA 52.4% 18 – 12 137 -2
140 Georgia Southern SB 52.3% 19 – 12 144 4
141 Illinois St. MVC 52.3% 17 – 15 138 -3
142 VCU A10 52.1% 18 – 15 145 3
143 UC Davis BW 52.0% 20 – 10 135 -8
144 Utah St. MWC 51.9% 16 – 17 141 -3
145 Jacksonville St. OVC 51.9% 20 – 12 146 1
146 San Francisco WCC 51.7% 17 – 15 142 -4
147 Towson CAA 51.6% 16 – 14 150 3
148 Saint Louis A10 51.5% 16 – 16 151 3
149 UC Irvine BW 51.4% 16 – 17 148 -1
150 Evansville MVC 51.4% 15 – 15 153 3
151 Louisiana Tech CUSA 51.4% 15 – 16 162 11
152 Eastern Michigan MAC 51.3% 17 – 12 156 4
153 Mercer SC 51.2% 16 – 14 154 1
154 Weber St. BSky 51.1% 17 – 11 147 -7
155 Troy SB 50.9% 14 – 17 159 4
156 Memphis Amer 50.9% 21 – 13 164 8
157 Dayton A10 50.9% 14 – 17 155 -2
158 Valparaiso MVC 50.9% 13 – 17 157 -1
159 Idaho BSky 50.9% 20 – 9 149 -10
160 Portland St. BSky 50.9% 17 – 13 152 -8
161 Wofford SC 50.9% 18 – 12 160 -1
162 Indiana St. MVC 50.7% 11 – 18 161 -1
163 Connecticut Amer 50.6% 14 – 18 163 0
164 Liberty BSth 50.6% 17 – 14 165 1
165 La Salle A10 50.5% 13 – 19 158 -7
166 Winthrop BSth 50.5% 16 – 12 166 0
167 Lipscomb ASun 50.1% 20 – 9 169 2
168 Richmond A10 50.0% 12 – 20 176 8
169 Ball St. MAC 50.0% 18 – 13 168 -1
170 Nicholls St. Slnd 50.0% 17 – 11 170 0
171 Southeastern Louisiana Slnd 49.9% 19 – 11 179 8
172 UMBC AE 49.8% 21 – 10 189 17
173 Cal St. Fullerton BW 49.8% 18 – 11 185 12
174 Radford BSth 49.7% 20 – 12 171 -3
175 Monmouth MAAC 49.7% 11 – 20 172 -3
176 Tulane Amer 49.6% 14 – 17 173 -3
177 Wagner NEC 49.5% 21 – 9 167 -10
178 North Dakota St. Sum 49.2% 12 – 17 174 -4
179 Pacific WCC 49.0% 13 – 18 177 -2
180 Oakland Horz 48.8% 19 – 14 175 -5
181 Drake MVC 48.8% 15 – 16 182 1
182 Princeton Ivy 48.8% 12 – 16 184 2
183 St. Francis PA NEC 48.8% 16 – 12 181 -2
184 Yale Ivy 48.6% 15 – 15 178 -6
185 Central Michigan MAC 48.6% 16 – 14 183 -2
186 Niagara MAAC 48.6% 19 – 13 187 1
187 Miami OH MAC 48.5% 14 – 17 195 8
188 Ohio MAC 48.5% 13 – 17 180 -8
189 Washington St. P12 48.5% 12 – 19 194 5
190 UTSA CUSA 48.4% 16 – 14 186 -4
191 Seattle WAC 48.3% 17 – 13 201 10
192 IPFW Sum 48.2% 14 – 14 193 1
193 UNC Asheville BSth 48.2% 19 – 12 192 -1
194 Coastal Carolina SB 47.9% 11 – 18 190 -4
195 Western Michigan MAC 47.9% 15 – 15 188 -7
196 George Washington A10 47.6% 15 – 18 191 -5
197 Central Arkansas Slnd 47.5% 16 – 16 202 5
198 Louisiana Monroe SB 47.5% 13 – 15 210 12
199 Lamar Slnd 47.4% 15 – 13 196 -3
200 Hawaii BW 47.3% 15 – 13 203 3
201 Colgate Pat 47.3% 18 – 13 197 -4
202 Fairfield MAAC 47.3% 17 – 16 198 -4
203 North Texas CUSA 47.2% 13 – 17 199 -4
204 Stony Brook AE 47.2% 12 – 19 204 0
205 Pittsburgh ACC 47.1% 8 – 24 209 4
206 Austin Peay OVC 47.1% 16 – 14 206 0
207 Long Beach St. BW 47.1% 13 – 18 208 1
208 Kent St. MAC 46.9% 16 – 17 205 -3
209 Duquesne A10 46.9% 16 – 16 200 -9
210 Hartford AE 46.8% 18 – 13 207 -3
211 Texas St. SB 46.5% 13 – 18 217 6
212 Illinois Chicago Horz 46.5% 15 – 15 214 2
213 Saint Peter’s MAAC 46.4% 14 – 18 211 -2
214 Southern Miss CUSA 46.4% 12 – 18 223 9
215 Milwaukee Horz 46.3% 15 – 16 216 1
216 Tennessee St. OVC 46.3% 13 – 15 213 -3
217 Massachusetts A10 46.3% 13 – 20 212 -5
218 Robert Morris NEC 46.1% 16 – 17 215 -3
219 Bowling Green MAC 46.0% 14 – 16 219 0
220 Sam Houston St. Slnd 46.0% 15 – 14 224 4
221 Manhattan MAAC 46.0% 14 – 17 218 -3
222 South Alabama SB 45.8% 12 – 18 222 0
223 Appalachian St. SB 45.8% 13 – 18 227 4
224 Tennessee Tech OVC 45.7% 17 – 14 221 -3
225 George Mason A10 45.5% 16 – 17 220 -5
226 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 45.4% 9 – 18 225 -1
227 Oral Roberts Sum 45.1% 8 – 20 226 -1
228 Elon CAA 45.0% 12 – 18 229 1
229 Lehigh Pat 45.0% 15 – 14 230 1
230 Campbell BSth 44.9% 13 – 15 231 1
231 Boston University Pat 44.8% 14 – 16 233 2
232 Colorado St. MWC 44.7% 10 – 21 228 -4
233 Columbia Ivy 44.6% 7 – 19 234 1
234 Navy Pat 44.5% 19 – 12 235 1
235 UNC Wilmington CAA 44.5% 9 – 21 232 -3
236 Air Force MWC 44.4% 10 – 19 240 4
237 James Madison CAA 44.3% 9 – 22 238 1
238 North Dakota BSky 44.3% 10 – 20 241 3
239 Florida Atlantic CUSA 44.2% 9 – 19 239 0
240 California P12 44.2% 8 – 23 236 -4
241 High Point BSth 44.1% 11 – 16 242 1
242 Charleston Southern BSth 44.0% 12 – 16 243 1
243 New Orleans Slnd 43.9% 12 – 16 237 -6
244 Army Pat 43.9% 12 – 17 244 0
245 Loyola Marymount WCC 43.7% 10 – 20 246 1
246 Denver Sum 43.7% 13 – 15 245 -1
247 Texas Southern SWAC 43.7% 15 – 19 259 12
248 Northern Illinois MAC 43.5% 11 – 19 250 2
249 Delaware CAA 43.5% 12 – 19 248 -1
250 LIU Brooklyn NEC 43.3% 17 – 16 264 14
251 UT Rio Grande Valley WAC 43.2% 13 – 17 247 -4
252 Mount St. Mary’s NEC 43.2% 16 – 14 251 -1
253 Gardner Webb BSth 43.1% 11 – 18 252 -1
254 Drexel CAA 43.1% 12 – 20 255 1
255 Akron MAC 43.0% 13 – 18 263 8
256 Idaho St. BSky 43.0% 12 – 16 249 -7
257 NJIT ASun 43.0% 12 – 16 256 -1
258 FIU CUSA 42.9% 11 – 18 253 -5
259 Morehead St. OVC 42.9% 6 – 21 258 -1
260 Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 42.8% 11 – 18 257 -3
261 Abilene Christian Slnd 42.7% 12 – 15 261 0
262 Cornell Ivy 42.6% 11 – 16 254 -8
263 UTEP CUSA 42.5% 10 – 20 260 -3
264 Hampton MEAC 42.5% 16 – 15 262 -2
265 Southeast Missouri St. OVC 42.4% 12 – 17 266 1
266 Brown Ivy 42.3% 10 – 16 265 -1
267 New Hampshire AE 42.2% 8 – 21 267 0
268 UMKC WAC 42.2% 8 – 21 275 7
269 Eastern Illinois OVC 42.1% 10 – 19 269 0
270 Holy Cross Pat 41.9% 12 – 19 271 1
271 Arkansas St. SB 41.9% 9 – 21 268 -3
272 Lafayette Pat 41.8% 9 – 21 272 0
273 Arkansas Little Rock SB 41.8% 6 – 24 270 -3
274 Southern Utah BSky 41.7% 11 – 19 291 17
275 UC Riverside BW 41.5% 7 – 22 281 6
276 Sacramento St. BSky 41.5% 5 – 25 277 1
277 North Florida ASun 41.5% 11 – 19 276 -1
278 St. Francis NY NEC 41.4% 11 – 18 274 -4
279 Prairie View A&M SWAC 41.4% 15 – 18 273 -6
280 Pepperdine WCC 41.3% 5 – 26 279 -1
281 UMass Lowell AE 41.3% 11 – 18 278 -3
282 Montana St. BSky 41.0% 11 – 19 280 -2
283 McNeese St. Slnd 41.0% 8 – 17 283 0
284 Santa Clara WCC 41.0% 10 – 19 282 -2
285 Quinnipiac MAAC 40.8% 12 – 21 284 -1
286 Green Bay Horz 40.7% 10 – 20 286 0
287 Portland WCC 40.7% 7 – 22 285 -2
288 Fordham A10 40.7% 9 – 22 288 0
289 Western Illinois Sum 40.6% 8 – 16 287 -2
290 IUPUI Horz 40.5% 9 – 19 289 -1
291 Nebraska Omaha Sum 40.5% 7 – 22 290 -1
292 South Florida Amer 40.5% 10 – 22 293 1
293 Central Connecticut NEC 40.3% 14 – 18 292 -1
294 Binghamton AE 40.1% 9 – 20 295 1
295 Eastern Kentucky OVC 40.1% 9 – 20 294 -1
296 Chattanooga SC 39.9% 8 – 23 297 1
297 Western Carolina SC 39.9% 11 – 19 300 3
298 Tennessee Martin OVC 39.8% 8 – 21 298 0
299 Siena MAAC 39.7% 8 – 24 299 0
300 Savannah St. MEAC 39.7% 13 – 17 302 2
301 Samford SC 39.6% 8 – 22 301 0
302 Norfolk St. MEAC 39.6% 13 – 17 296 -6
303 Bethune Cookman MEAC 39.4% 16 – 14 303 0
304 Dartmouth Ivy 39.3% 6 – 20 306 2
305 North Carolina Central MEAC 39.2% 16 – 15 316 11
306 North Carolina A&T MEAC 39.1% 18 – 14 305 -1
307 Kennesaw St. ASun 39.0% 8 – 20 307 0
308 Texas A&M Corpus Chris Slnd 39.0% 8 – 18 304 -4
309 Cleveland St. Horz 39.0% 11 – 23 308 -1
310 Loyola MD Pat 38.7% 8 – 22 309 -1
311 Rice CUSA 38.7% 5 – 24 310 -1
312 Sacred Heart NEC 38.6% 9 – 21 311 -1
313 Stetson ASun 38.6% 8 – 20 312 -1
314 Grambling St. SWAC 38.5% 16 – 14 314 0
315 San Jose St. MWC 38.3% 3 – 26 313 -2
317 The Citadel SC 38.0% 8 – 21 317 0
316 East Carolina Amer 38.0% 10 – 20 315 -1
318 Marist MAAC 37.9% 6 – 25 318 0
319 SIU Edwardsville OVC 37.8% 9 – 21 319 0
320 Detroit Horz 37.5% 6 – 24 322 2
321 Jacksonville ASun 37.5% 11 – 18 321 0
322 Cal Poly BW 37.4% 7 – 22 320 -2
323 American Pat 37.2% 6 – 24 323 0
324 Charlotte CUSA 36.9% 5 – 23 324 0
325 Youngstown St. Horz 36.7% 6 – 24 327 2
326 Presbyterian BSth 36.7% 8 – 21 325 -1
327 Morgan St. MEAC 36.7% 11 – 19 326 -1
328 Northern Arizona BSky 36.4% 4 – 26 328 0
329 Southern SWAC 35.9% 13 – 18 329 0
330 Maine AE 35.8% 4 – 26 331 1
331 Arkansas Pine Bluff SWAC 35.6% 14 – 21 330 -1
332 VMI SC 35.6% 7 – 21 332 0
333 Cal St. Northridge BW 35.4% 4 – 24 333 0
334 Longwood BSth 34.9% 4 – 26 335 1
335 Houston Baptist Slnd 34.9% 3 – 25 336 1
336 Howard MEAC 34.6% 8 – 23 334 -2
337 USC Upstate ASun 34.0% 3 – 25 337 0
338 Florida A&M MEAC 33.9% 8 – 25 342 4
339 Alabama St. SWAC 33.7% 8 – 23 338 -1
340 Northwestern St. Slnd 33.4% 2 – 23 339 -1
341 South Carolina St. MEAC 33.3% 8 – 22 340 -1
342 Jackson St. SWAC 33.3% 10 – 20 341 -1
343 Chicago St. WAC 33.0% 1 – 29 344 1
344 Incarnate Word Slnd 32.9% 3 – 21 345 1
345 Bryant NEC 32.9% 3 – 28 343 -2
346 Alcorn St. SWAC 32.6% 7 – 21 346 0
347 Coppin St. MEAC 31.7% 5 – 27 347 0
348 Mississippi Valley St. SWAC 30.8% 4 – 28 348 0
349 Maryland Eastern Shore MEAC 30.1% 5 – 25 349 0
350 Delaware St. MEAC 29.0% 2 – 28 351 1
351 Alabama A&M SWAC 28.7% 3 – 28 350 -1

Week 18 Top 25

Posted: March 4, 2018 in NCAA

Duke overtakes the number 1 spot and many other teams shuffle throughout the top 25.

Rank Team Conf POWER Record Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Duke ACC 72.3% 25 – 6 25 – 6 13 – 5 2 1
2 Virginia ACC 72.1% 28 – 2 28 – 2 17 – 1 1 -1
3 Villanova BE 71.8% 27 – 4 27 – 4 14 – 4 3 0
4 North Carolina ACC 69.9% 22 – 9 22 – 9 11 – 7 5 1
5 Purdue B10 69.7% 28 – 6 28 – 6 17 – 4 4 -1
6 Cincinnati Amer 68.7% 27 – 4 27 – 4 16 – 2 8 2
7 Michigan St. B10 68.5% 29 – 4 29 – 4 17 – 3 6 -1
8 Auburn SEC 67.7% 25 – 6 25 – 6 13 – 5 7 -1
9 Xavier BE 67.3% 27 – 4 27 – 4 15 – 3 9 0
10 Gonzaga WCC 66.8% 28 – 4 29 – 4 19 – 1 11 1
11 Kansas B12 66.6% 24 – 7 24 – 7 13 – 5 10 -1
12 Tennessee SEC 66.6% 23 – 7 23 – 7 13 – 5 13 1
13 TCU B12 66.6% 21 – 10 21 – 11 9 – 10 14 1
14 Texas Tech B12 66.3% 23 – 8 23 – 8 11 – 7 15 1
15 Michigan B10 66.1% 27 – 7 27 – 7 17 – 5 24 9
16 Wichita St. Amer 66.0% 24 – 6 24 – 6 14 – 4 17 1
17 Nevada MWC 65.9% 26 – 6 26 – 6 15 – 3 19 2
18 Ohio St. B10 65.9% 24 – 8 24 – 8 15 – 4 18 0
19 Clemson ACC 65.7% 22 – 8 22 – 8 11 – 7 20 1
20 Kentucky SEC 65.5% 21 – 10 21 – 10 10 – 8 16 -4
21 Rhode Island A10 65.1% 23 – 6 23 – 6 15 – 3 12 -9
22 Seton Hall BE 64.7% 21 – 10 21 – 11 10 – 9 23 1
23 West Virginia B12 64.6% 22 – 9 22 – 10 11 – 8 25 2
24 Arizona P12 64.0% 24 – 7 24 – 7 14 – 4 21 -3
25 Texas A&M SEC 63.9% 20 – 11 20 – 12 9 – 10 26 1

Week 17 Top 25

Posted: February 25, 2018 in NCAA

Virginia holds on to the top spot and Duke jumps Villanova after Villanova’s loss to Creighton.

Rank Team Conf POWER Record Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Virginia ACC 73.0% 25 – 2 27 – 3 16 – 2 1 0
2 Duke ACC 72.2% 24 – 5 25 – 6 13 – 5 3 1
3 Villanova BE 72.0% 25 – 4 26 – 5 13 – 5 2 -1
4 Purdue B10 70.3% 26 – 5 26 – 5 15 – 3 4 0
5 North Carolina ACC 70.1% 22 – 7 23 – 8 12 – 6 5 0
6 Michigan St. B10 69.2% 28 – 3 28 – 3 16 – 2 6 0
7 Auburn SEC 68.6% 24 – 5 25 – 6 13 – 5 8 1
8 Cincinnati Amer 68.3% 25 – 4 26 – 5 15 – 3 7 -1
9 Xavier BE 67.9% 25 – 4 26 – 5 14 – 4 9 0
10 Kansas B12 67.5% 23 – 6 24 – 7 13 – 5 12 2
11 Gonzaga WCC 66.8% 27 – 4 27 – 4 17 – 1 16 5
12 Rhode Island A10 66.7% 23 – 4 24 – 5 16 – 2 14 2
13 Tennessee SEC 66.5% 21 – 7 22 – 8 12 – 6 13 0
14 TCU B12 66.5% 20 – 9 21 – 10 9 – 9 15 1
15 Texas Tech B12 66.3% 22 – 7 23 – 8 11 – 7 11 -4
16 Kentucky SEC 65.8% 20 – 9 21 – 10 10 – 8 21 5
17 Wichita St. Amer 65.8% 23 – 5 24 – 6 14 – 4 17 0
18 Ohio St. B10 65.8% 24 – 7 24 – 7 15 – 3 19 1
19 Nevada MWC 65.7% 25 – 5 26 – 6 15 – 3 10 -9
20 Clemson ACC 65.3% 21 – 7 22 – 8 11 – 7 18 -2
21 Arizona P12 65.1% 22 – 6 24 – 7 14 – 4 22 1
22 Butler BE 64.7% 19 – 10 20 – 11 10 – 8 29 7
23 Seton Hall BE 64.6% 20 – 9 21 – 10 10 – 8 27 4
24 Michigan B10 64.6% 23 – 7 23 – 7 13 – 5 35 11
25 West Virginia B12 64.3% 22 – 8 22 – 9 11 – 7 25 0

Week 16 Top 25

Posted: February 19, 2018 in NCAA

There was no change whatsoever in the top six. Cincinnati (6) jumped Auburn (7) and Nevada (10) enters the top ten as Tennessee (13) dropped four spots this week.

Rank Team Conf POWER Record Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Virginia ACC 72.8% 23 – 2 26 – 4 15 – 3 1 0
2 Villanova BE 72.2% 24 – 3 26 – 5 13 – 5 2 0
3 Duke ACC 71.9% 22 – 5 25 – 6 13 – 5 3 0
4 Purdue B10 70.5% 24 – 5 25 – 6 14 – 4 4 0
5 North Carolina ACC 70.2% 21 – 7 23 – 8 12 – 6 5 0
6 Michigan St. B10 69.5% 26 – 3 27 – 4 15 – 3 6 0
7 Cincinnati Amer 68.7% 23 – 4 26 – 5 15 – 3 8 1
8 Auburn SEC 68.7% 23 – 4 25 – 6 13 – 5 7 -1
9 Xavier BE 68.0% 24 – 4 26 – 5 14 – 4 10 1
10 Nevada MWC 67.6% 23 – 5 26 – 6 15 – 3 12 2
11 Texas Tech B12 67.2% 22 – 5 24 – 7 12 – 6 13 2
12 Kansas B12 67.1% 21 – 6 23 – 8 12 – 6 11 -1
13 Tennessee SEC 66.7% 19 – 7 21 – 9 11 – 7 9 -4
14 Rhode Island A10 66.7% 21 – 4 24 – 5 16 – 2 17 3
15 TCU B12 66.6% 18 – 9 20 – 11 8 – 10 16 1
16 Gonzaga WCC 66.4% 25 – 4 26 – 5 16 – 2 14 -2
17 Wichita St. Amer 66.1% 21 – 5 23 – 7 13 – 5 21 4
18 Clemson ACC 65.9% 20 – 6 22 – 8 11 – 7 19 1
19 Ohio St. B10 65.6% 22 – 7 23 – 8 14 – 4 15 -4
20 Texas A&M SEC 65.3% 17 – 10 19 – 12 8 – 10 18 -2
21 Kentucky SEC 65.3% 18 – 9 20 – 11 9 – 9 27 6
22 Arizona P12 65.2% 21 – 5 24 – 7 14 – 4 22 0
23 Maryland B10 64.8% 17 – 11 18 – 12 8 – 10 24 1
24 Florida St. ACC 64.6% 19 – 8 20 – 10 9 – 9 20 -4
25 West Virginia B12 64.4% 20 – 8 22 – 9 11 – 7 32 7

Dropped Out: Seton Hall, Butler

Week 15 Bracketology

Posted: February 13, 2018 in NCAA

Hello everyone! For the first time ever I present to you Bracketology! I used projected conference champions to determine the 32 automatic bids and then used a strength of record calculation (based on my statistics) to determine the 36 at-large teams. I then seeded the teams using a combination of strength of record and power rankings. I did use the seeding rules that the NCAA uses when seeding teams and placing them into the bracket (I learned these rules in a 2015 Bracketology course taught by Joe Lunardi).

South (Top Left Region)

1) Virginia vs. 16) UNC Asheville/North Carolina A&T

8) Arizona State vs. 9) Missouri

5) TCU vs. 12) Loyola (IL)

4) Rhode Island vs. 13) Old Dominion/Murray State

6) Seton Hall vs. 11) Vermont

3) Tennessee vs. 14) Belmont

7) Oklahoma vs. 10) Syracuse

2) Cincinnati vs. 15) Rider

East (Top Right Region)

1) Villanova vs. 16) Nicholls State/Arkansas Pine Bluff

8) Louisville vs. 9) Michigan

5) Clemson vs. 12) Buffalo

4) Ohio State vs. 13) Nebraska/BYU

6) Arizona vs. 11) Boise State

3) Kansas vs. 14) South Dakota State

7) Saint Mary’s vs. 10) Virginia Tech

2) Auburn vs. 15) Florida Gulf Coast

Midwest (Bottom Right Region)

1) Duke vs. 16) Harvard

8) West Virginia vs. 9) Middle Tennessee

5) Florida State vs. 12) Louisiana-Lafayette

4) Gonzaga vs. 13) East Tennessee State

6) Wichita State vs. 11) Western Kentucky

3) Xavier vs. 14) Bucknell

7) Butler vs. 10) Arkansas

2) Michigan State vs. 15) UC Santa Barbara

West (Bottom Left Region)

1) Purdue vs. 16) Wagner

8) Miami (FL) vs. 9) Florida

5) Texas A&M vs. 12) St. Bonaventure

4) Texas Tech vs. 13) Northern Kentucky

6) Creighton vs. 11) New Mexico State

3) Nevada vs. 14) Montana

7) Kentucky vs. 10) Houston

2) North Carolina vs. 15) College of Charleston

Conference Bids Summary

ACC – 9, SEC – 7, Big East – 5, Big Ten – 5, Big 12 – 5, American – 3, WCC – 3, CUSA – 3, OVC – 2, Pacific 12 – 2, Atlantic 10 – 2, Mountain West – 2

Last Four In/First Four Out

Last Four In: Old Dominion, Nebraska, BYU, Murray State

First Four Out: South Dakota, Alabama, Kansas State, Mississippi State

 

Week 15 Top 25

Posted: February 11, 2018 in NCAA

Only a few weeks remaining until the end of the regular season and Virginia and Villanova have been jockeying back and forth for the number one spot for the last several weeks. Normal powerhouses of Duke, UNC and Michigan State have also been consistently near the top as well as teams like Purdue, Auburn, Cincinnati, Tennessee and Xavier who are all having strong years.

Rank Team Conf POWER Record Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Virginia ACC 73.1% 22 – 2 26 – 4 15 – 3 2 1
2 Villanova BE 72.6% 23 – 2 26 – 5 13 – 5 1 -1
3 Duke ACC 71.5% 20 – 5 24 – 7 12 – 6 3 0
4 Purdue B10 71.4% 23 – 4 26 – 5 15 – 3 4 0
5 North Carolina ACC 69.9% 19 – 7 22 – 9 11 – 7 6 1
6 Michigan St. B10 69.4% 24 – 3 26 – 5 14 – 4 8 2
7 Auburn SEC 69.3% 22 – 3 25 – 6 13 – 5 7 0
8 Cincinnati Amer 68.6% 23 – 2 27 – 4 16 – 2 11 3
9 Tennessee SEC 68.3% 18 – 6 22 – 8 12 – 6 5 -4
10 Xavier BE 68.3% 23 – 3 26 – 5 14 – 4 10 0
11 Kansas B12 67.5% 19 – 6 22 – 9 11 – 7 9 -2
12 Nevada MWC 67.3% 21 – 5 25 – 7 14 – 4 12 0
13 Texas Tech B12 67.2% 21 – 4 24 – 7 12 – 6 14 1
14 Gonzaga WCC 67.2% 23 – 4 26 – 5 16 – 2 15 1
15 Ohio St. B10 66.9% 22 – 5 24 – 7 15 – 3 20 5
16 TCU B12 66.9% 17 – 8 20 – 11 8 – 10 16 0
17 Rhode Island A10 66.9% 20 – 3 24 – 5 16 – 2 13 -4
18 Texas A&M SEC 66.3% 17 – 8 20 – 11 9 – 9 29 11
19 Clemson ACC 66.1% 20 – 4 23 – 7 12 – 6 18 -1
20 Florida St. ACC 66.0% 17 – 8 20 – 10 9 – 9 19 -1
21 Wichita St. Amer 65.8% 19 – 5 22 – 8 12 – 6 27 6
22 Arizona P12 65.5% 20 – 5 23 – 8 13 – 5 23 1
23 Seton Hall BE 65.3% 17 – 8 20 – 11 9 – 9 17 -6
24 Maryland B10 65.3% 16 – 10 18 – 12 8 – 10 31 7
25 Butler BE 65.3% 17 – 9 20 – 11 10 – 8 26 1

Dropped Out: Kentucky (21), Oklahoma (22), Creighton (24), Texas (25)

Week 14 Mid Major 15

Posted: February 7, 2018 in NCAA

 

Rank Team Conf POWER Record Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Nevada MWC 67.5% 20 – 4 25 – 7 14 – 4 1 0
2 Rhode Island A10 67.3% 19 – 3 23 – 6 15 – 3 3 +1
3 Gonzaga WCC 66.9% 21 – 4 25 – 6 15 – 3 2 -1
4 Saint Mary’s WCC 65.2% 23 – 2 27 – 4 16 – 2 5 +1
5 Middle Tennessee CUSA 64.6% 17 – 5 22 – 7 15 – 3 4 -1
6 Western Kentucky CUSA 62.6% 15 – 7 20 – 10 13 – 5 6 0
7 Vermont AE 62.2% 18 – 5 23 – 7 14 – 2 8 +1
8 New Mexico St. WAC 62.0% 17 – 3 22 – 5 12 – 2 7 -1
9 Boise St. MWC 61.8% 19 – 4 22 – 7 13 – 5 10 +1
10 Buffalo MAC 60.7% 17 – 6 22 – 8 15 – 3 11 +1
11 St. Bonaventure A10 60.3% 16 – 6 21 – 9 11 – 7 9 -2
12 Louisiana Lafayette SB 60.1% 18 – 3 23 – 6 15 – 3 13 +1
13 San Diego St. MWC 59.8% 12 – 9 16 – 12 9 – 9 NR
14 BYU WCC 59.8% 18 – 7 22 – 9 11 – 7 12 -2
15 Loyola Chicago MVC 59.5% 18 – 5 21 – 8 12 – 6 NR

Dropped Out: Northern Kentucky (14), Old Dominion (15)

Week 14 NCAA Top 25

Posted: February 5, 2018 in NCAA

 

Rank Team Conf POWER Record Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Villanova BE 73.9% 22 – 1 27 – 4 14 – 4 1 0
2 Virginia ACC 72.8% 21 – 1 26 – 4 15 – 3 4 2
3 Duke ACC 71.7% 19 – 4 24 – 7 12 – 6 2 -1
4 Purdue B10 71.6% 23 – 2 27 – 4 16 – 2 3 -1
5 Tennessee SEC 70.0% 17 – 5 21 – 9 11 – 7 7 2
6 North Carolina ACC 69.9% 17 – 7 21 – 10 10 – 8 5 -1
7 Auburn SEC 69.5% 21 – 2 26 – 5 14 – 4 8 1
8 Michigan St. B10 69.3% 22 – 3 25 – 6 13 – 5 6 -2
9 Kansas B12 68.3% 18 – 5 22 – 9 11 – 7 9 0
10 Xavier BE 67.8% 21 – 3 25 – 6 13 – 5 10 0
11 Cincinnati Amer 67.6% 21 – 2 26 – 5 15 – 3 16 5
12 Nevada MWC 67.4% 20 – 4 25 – 7 14 – 4 11 -1
13 Rhode Island A10 67.3% 19 – 3 23 – 6 15 – 3 14 1
14 Texas Tech B12 67.2% 19 – 4 23 – 8 11 – 7 15 1
15 Gonzaga WCC 67.0% 21 – 4 25 – 6 15 – 3 18 3
16 TCU B12 66.7% 16 – 7 20 – 11 8 – 10 12 -4
17 Seton Hall BE 66.6% 17 – 6 21 – 10 10 – 8 23 6
18 Clemson ACC 66.4% 19 – 4 23 – 7 12 – 6 21 3
19 Florida St. ACC 66.4% 17 – 6 21 – 9 10 – 8 20 1
20 Ohio St. B10 66.3% 20 – 5 23 – 8 14 – 4 24 4
21 Kentucky SEC 66.0% 17 – 6 21 – 10 10 – 8 13 -8
22 Oklahoma B12 66.0% 16 – 6 20 – 10 10 – 8 17 -5
23 Arizona P12 65.8% 19 – 4 24 – 7 14 – 4 26 3
24 Creighton BE 65.6% 17 – 6 21 – 9 11 – 7 27 3
25 Texas B12 65.5% 15 – 8 19 – 12 9 – 9 31 6

Week 13 Mid Major 15

Posted: January 31, 2018 in NCAA

Nevada takes the #1 spot as Rhode IslandĀ  falls to #3.

Rank Team Conf POWER Record Proj. Record Proj. Conf Record Prev Movement
1 Nevada MWC 68.3% 18 – 3 25 – 7 14 – 4 2 +1
2 Gonzaga WCC 66.9% 19 – 4 24 – 7 14 – 4 3 -1
3 Rhode Island A10 66.5% 17 – 3 22 – 7 14 – 4 1 -2
4 Middle Tennessee CUSA 64.9% 15 – 5 21 – 8 14 – 4 5 +1
5 Saint Mary’s WCC 64.4% 21 – 2 26 – 5 15 – 3 4 -1
6 Western Kentucky CUSA 63.7% 14 – 6 20 – 10 13 – 5 6 0
7 New Mexico St. WAC 61.4% 16 – 3 21 – 6 11 – 3 9 +2
8 Vermont AE 61.3% 15 – 5 22 – 8 13 – 3 12 +4
9 St. Bonaventure A10 61.1% 13 – 6 20 – 10 10 – 8 10 +1
10 Boise St. MWC 61.1% 16 – 4 21 – 8 12 – 6 7 -3
11 Buffalo MAC 60.6% 15 – 6 21 – 9 14 – 4 8 -3
12 BYU WCC 60.1% 18 – 5 22 – 9 11 – 7 14 +2
13 Louisiana Lafayette SB 59.7% 17 – 3 22 – 7 14 – 4 15 +2
14 Northern Kentucky Horz 59.6% 13 – 7 18 – 10 13 – 5 13 -1
15 Old Dominion CUSA 59.1% 16 – 4 22 – 8 13 – 5 NR

Dropped out: San Diego St. (11)